The Gulf Coast and the eastern United States are likely due for another above-average Atlantic hurricane season, according to a forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency released yesterday.

The upcoming year is expected to see anywhere from 13 to 20 named storms—those with wind speeds above 39 mph—with six to 10 expected to develop into hurricanes. Of those, between three and five are likely to develop into Category 3 hurricanes or stronger. Warmer than average sea temperatures fuel the activity; hurricanes generally require the ocean water temperature to be above 80 degrees to a depth of 150 feet.

The season is not expected to match last year’s historic barrage of hurricanes. It was the most active year on record, with 30 named storms and seven Category 3 or stronger systems causing more than $50B in damage. Eleven storms made landfall in the US, breaking the 1916 record of nine. 

The season officially starts June 1.

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