A nation exhausted by 18 months of the pandemic is trying to figure out what lies ahead. Frustratingly, there may not be a nationwide answer.

The latest figures show a flattening of new COVID-19 cases in some of the states that have been worst hit by the delta variant. But other states are suffering explosive rises.

The average number of new cases has rocketed in West Virginia, for example, where average daily infections were up 252 percent in the 14 days to Sunday, according to New York Times data.

The daily average for infections has shot up 77 percent in Ohio, 72 percent in Indiana and 67 percent in Kentucky, the home state of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R).

McConnell, a polio survivor, has been more vigorous than many others in his party in urging vaccinations.

At the same time, new cases have fallen by 27 percent in Louisiana and 7 percent in Mississippi, two of the states that had been worst affected by the recent spike.

Three other states that had been hard-hit are seeing increases, but at a slower rate than before. Daily cases in Florida and Texas have each increased by 5 percent over the last 14 days, and by 3 percent in Alabama.

“That rise and fall will happen at different times and in different places” over the coming months, said Neil Sehgal, an assistant professor of health policy and management at the University of Maryland School of Public Health.

“It’s a relief anytime we see cases decline somewhere that has really been ravaged by COVID. At the same time, positive news in one part of the county doesn’t necessarily translate nationally.”

The question of what comes next is particularly pertinent right now.

Schools across the nation are returning to in-person learning for the first time since the pandemic began. In the process, they are lifting an emotional and logistical burden from parents and facilitating a return to the full-time workforce for many.

But a continued rise in COVID-19 cases could endanger that process.

New figures show COVID-19-related hospitalizations of people under 18 at their highest since the pandemic began, though such cases remain very rare overall.

The more widespread danger could be school years marked by frequent and unpredictable disruptions. On Monday, for example, a school district near Houston announced a COVID-19-related weeklong shutdown just two weeks into the academic year.

Kavita Patel, a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution and a practicing physician, said “how schools factor into this” is one of the crucial unknowns. One possibility, she suggested, was that “we could see an incredible uptick in cases but no increase in hospitalizations.”

Other public health experts sound an even more ominous tone, given that children under 12 remain ineligible for vaccination.

“No one would consider it appropriate to put 20 or 30 unvaccinated adults in a room all day, with poor ventilation and have them sit there for hours at a time in the middle of the delta surge. Why do we think we should do this with children?” said Leana Wen, a practicing physician and a former Baltimore health commissioner. “It is something I really worry about.”

Overall, the U.S. has seen a 20 percent rise in new cases of COVID-19 over the last two weeks, according to the New York Times data.

Average daily hospitalizations are more than 100,000, their highest level in eight months. Around 1,300 Americans are dying every day from COVID-19. The virus has now claimed around 637,000 lives in the U.S., and an estimated 4.5 million around the world.

The trajectory of what comes next will decide the fate of many Americans’ lives. It will also have a central bearing on how President Biden and a number of other prominent politicians are viewed by the public.

Biden, having received high marks from voters for his handling of the pandemic in his early months in office, has seen his ratings slide into more ambivalent territory. An NBC News poll earlier this month showed 53 percent approval for Biden’s approach to COVID-19 — a sharp decline from 69 percent in April.

Some conservative governors, notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), have become leading foils of Biden, each issuing anti-mask mandate executive orders.

DeSantis and Abbott are considered potential candidates for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. They also face gubernatorial reelection battles next year.

The political battle took a new turn Monday, when the Department of Education opened civil rights investigations into five states that have imposed restrictions on mask mandates in schools.

The investigation is premised on the possibility that those states could have infringed upon the rights of students who are at higher risk because of underlying conditions.

A few days earlier, a Florida judge ruled that the state could not levy penalties against school districts that introduced mask mandates.

But as those battles play out, one truth remains: The future path of the virus is almost impossible to chart with confidence.

“Another thing we have learned in the pandemic is that prognostication is difficult and we almost certainly are going to be wrong,” said Wen.

“If we are able to get vaccinations up and there are mitigation measures put in place, including in schools, we could get past the surge. But what if there is a new variant that develops that is even more contagious and even more deadly?”

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Cleveland Clinic, Florida officials tracking Lambda variant of COVID-19

Nassau Guardian– Medical experts at Cleveland Clinic Florida are tracking a new highly contagious variant of the COVID-19 SARS virus, the Lambda variant, but warning it is too early to predict its impact.

“While worldwide attention has been focused on the Delta variant, the emergence of yet another variant in a continuing evolution of this virus is further evidence of the need to continue exercising every precaution and doing all we can to expedite and encourage vaccination for as many people as possible,” said Dr. Lyssette Cardona, infectious disease specialist. “The earliest documented samples of the Lambda variant were recorded in Peru in December 2020; and in June, the World Health Organization officially noted that the Lambda variant was on its radar.”

So far, the Lambda variant has been identified in 29 countries.

The Lambda variant is highly infectious and may be even more vaccine-resistant than previous incarnations of the virus that has caused more than 4.4 million deaths worldwide, including over 340 in The Bahamas where both the public and private healthcare facilities are straining at the seams.

“In the end,” said Cardona, “the shape-shifting nature of the coronavirus, like all viruses, causes doctors and experts around the world to keep a close eye on, though at this time, we do not believe the Lambda variant will change the way we have to deal with and confront this virus. It is part of the fast-paced evolution of the virus and that is ultimately what we must maintain our level of vigilance to observe, track and treat, but most importantly encourage everyone to do what they can individually to prevent being impacted themselves or spreading the disease to others in their family or community.”

Experts stress that while the vaccine may not prevent someone from getting the diseases, it greatly improves their chances of survival with the latest figures making the unvaccinated 29 times more likely to die from COVID than those who contract it even though they are fully vaccinated.

The Bahamas’ National COVID-19 Vaccine Consultative Committee’s latest vaccine tracker chart shows only 14 percent of the population is fully vaccinated (56,000 out of a population of 400,000), well below the target of 70-85 percent needed for herd immunity.

“These new waves of infections show that the pandemic is not close to being over yet,” said Cardona. “At this time, vaccination has proven to be our most effective tool, and vaccines are readily available for many children and adults. Vaccinations are our best defense against these emerging mutations.”

According to Dr. Merceline Dahl-Regis, chairperson of Bahamas National COVID-19 Vaccine Consultative Committee, the vaccine committee hopes to vaccinate over 60,000 residents within the next six weeks. There are also 19,240 AstraZeneca vaccine doses available for distribution.

“The best way for everyone in The Bahamas to protect themselves and prevent more surges from happening in the future is to get vaccinated and follow established protocols,” said Dahl-Regis.

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