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Are COVID-19’s Big Waves Over?, UnVax Pregnancy Danger, World Stats, More

By Justine Coleman

The Hill

Experts are split on whether the waning delta surge will be the last major COVID-19 wave to strike the U.S., as Americans grow eager for the pandemic to end after 19 months.

The vaccination rate and decreasing cases in most states have provided a ray of hope that the pandemic could be winding down after its final large wave, some experts say.

But other public health experts caution the unpredictability of the virus suggests another surge could still happen as the country braces for winter — which led to skyrocketing cases, deaths and hospitalizations last year.

Nicholas Reich, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said declaring there won’t be another major wave after delta “feels like” a “premature” and “bold” statement.

“Is there a chance? Sure, but I feel like if there’s one thing we’ve learned from this, it’s that there’s a lot more sort of uncertainty and randomness … in COVID then we’ve given it credit for so far,” he said.

Some experts, including Reich, pointed out that factors such as the potential development of variants and the unknown endurance of immunity after infection and vaccination could spark larger-scale rises in COVID-19 cases after the country has seen a national decline.

The downturn in cases comes after the delta strain fueled a spike, reaching a seven-day average of more than 175,000 daily cases in mid-September. But on Thursday, that average dropped below 100,000 for the first time since Aug. 4, according to data from The New York Times.

Overall, 39 states have seen their seven-day averages of COVID-19 cases fall within the past two weeks. Despite these drops in cases, COVID-19 is not eliminated and “many hundreds of thousands of people are still gonna get infected” as the pandemic continues, Reich said.

While COVID-19 numbers are moving “in the right direction,” some areas of the country, including Alaska and West Virginia, are still “very much in the midst of the delta wave,” said Leana Wen, an emergency physician and public health professor at George Washington University.

“I’m very concerned about people becoming complacent because they think that the delta wave is passing us,” she said. “We have seen this happen before, where there is a rise in the number of cases, then a decline, and then people let down their guard. And as a result, we plateau at a very high level of cases. That’s unacceptable.”

The approaching winter season also makes it difficult to forecast future COVID-19 trends, as coronaviruses can more easily spread in colder weather and in indoor spaces. Last winter, the U.S. saw its highest surge of cases, hospitalizations and deaths amid holiday gatherings held before vaccines became widely available.

Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said he expects cases to increase in the winter after bottoming out in October, but that it is likely to be lower than the delta surge.

“I think some people will be surprised that it doesn’t just keep going away, and … that doesn’t seem very likely,” he said.

Wen of George Washington University said having just 56.2 percent of the total U.S. population fully vaccinated and fewer restrictions than last year leaves it uncertain that the delta wave could be the U.S.’s final major COVID-19 surge.

“I don’t know how we could possibly say that considering we don’t know what’s going to come our way,” Wen said.

“I’m not sure how we can know for certain that the level of protection we have nailed through vaccination is sufficient,” she said, adding she’s hopeful the end is “on the horizon” with children’s vaccines, oral treatment and more testing.

Others, including former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb, took a more optimistic stance, anticipating that cases won’t rise to the summer delta levels again.

“Barring something unexpected, I’m of the opinion that this is the last major wave of infection,” Gottlieb told The New York Times this week.

Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, told MSNBC on Friday that any rise in winter cases will likely be “more decoupled from hospitalizations and deaths” due to the increased immunity due to vaccines and infections.

“Many more people have been vaccinated, so many more people have natural immunity from this big delta wave and unfortunately so many people have died that we probably won’t see peaks that are anything like we saw in the past, especially when it comes to what matters which is hospitalization, serious disease and death,” he said.

“I think delta was hopefully the worst that this virus can throw at us,” he added.

David Dowdy, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said he thinks it’s “unlikely” that the U.S. will endure another COVID-19 wave “to the level” of the summer delta and previous winter surges.

With the vaccination level rising and a “fair amount” of the unvaccinated getting infected, Americans’ immunity is “higher now than it’s ever been,” he said.

The emergence of a new variant could potentially threaten that immunity if the strain evades the vaccines. But Dowdy said he doesn’t expect that in the short-term, as delta has reigned as the dominant variant worldwide for months without another strain usurping it.

“I think anyone who says that they can predict the future of this pandemic is probably lying to you,” Dowdy said. “But I think we have a lot of reasons to be optimistic that we will not see another massive wave the way that we have seen so far.”

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Pandemic Summary

UK-One in Six Critical COVID Patients are Un-Vaxed Pregnant Women

According to new figures from NHS England, one in six of the most critically ill patients are unvaccinated pregnant women with Covid.

Our community team would like to hear from women in the UK about their experiences of Covid vaccines. Have you recently changed your mind having previously been hesitant, or vice versa?

Find out more details of how to get in touch here: Pregnant women in the UK – have you changed your mind about Covid vaccination?

Russia’s daily Covid numbers remain close to their highest figures. Reuters are carrying the latest figures of 957 coronavirus-related deaths in the previous 24 hours, which is just shy of the record of 968, set two days earlier. There were 29,409 new cases over the same period.

Heathrow passenger numbers 38% of pre-pandemic levels

Heathrow’s passenger numbers remained only 38% compared to their pre-pandemic levels last month, the airport has announced.

2.6 million people travelled through the west London airport in September, compared with 6.8 million during the same month in 2019. The airport says the decline was driven by North American traffic being only a quarter of 2019 levels.

Neil Lancefield, PA’s transport correspondent, notes that the US has been closed to UK visitors during the coronavirus pandemic, although the restriction is expected to be lifted in November for those who are fully vaccinated. Heathrow said rival airports in the European Union “enjoyed stronger resurgence over summer”.

John Holland-Kaye, the airport’s chief executive, added an environmental message to the numbers release, saying: “We should aim for 2019 to have been the peak year for fossil fuel use in global aviation.

“The UK Government can show real leadership in decarbonising aviation at Cop26 to accelerate the transition to sustainable aviation fuel in the UK, which will protect the benefits of flying for future generations.”

AstraZeneca says it has demonstrated that a new antibody treatment AZD7442 was effective in preventing severe disease in non-hospitalised patients with mild to moderate coronavirus, when compared with a placebo.

The study found that a single dose of 600mg of AZD7442 given by injection into muscle managed to reduce the risk of developing severe Covid-19 or death from any cause by 50%, when compared with a placebo, in people who had been symptomatic for seven days or less.

For those who received the treatment within five days of their symptoms first appearing, AZD7442 reduced the risk of developing severe Covid or death by 67% compared with a placebo.

Jane Kirby, PA’s health and science editor reports that the treatment has been billed as suitable for those who cannot have a regular vaccination, who respond poorly to Covid-19 vaccines or whose health conditions put them at particular risk of serious illness.

AstraZeneca submitted a request to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) last week for emergency use authorisation for AZD7442, which is made up of two antibodies.

A separate study on the treatment published in August showed there were no cases of severe Covid or coronavirus-related deaths in those treated with AZD7442.

You can excuse my colleagues down under from being a little bit excited about lockdown in Sydney and the rest of New South Wales ending after more than 100 days. Here’s a photo gallery – not of them – but of other Sydney residents enjoying the day.

Drakeford: Welsh Covid passes will ‘help’ hospitality venues stay open during autumn and winter

First minister of Wales Mark Drakeford has been on the media round this morning talking about the NHS Covid pass system for events which comes into effect in the country today.

Pressed on ITV’s Good Morning Britain he conceded there was a vulnerability in the system, in that people could falsify lateral flow test results. He said:

“We have created a specific offence which will mean that if someone deliberately falsifies the result of a lateral flow test they will be breaching the law in Wales.

“The broader point for me is that we have literally thousands and thousands of people taking lateral flow tests in Wales every day of the week – they’re not doing it in order to evade the law they’re doing it to make sure they themselves are safe from coronavirus and they’re keeping other people safe as well.

“I’m quite sure that the huge bulk of people who are attending a rugby match or visiting a nightclub will use the lateral flow devices in exactly this way – not to get round the rules but to make sure they’re keeping themselves safe from this dreadful disease.”

PA media report he went on to tell the show: “If we see rising numbers of coronavirus in Wales – and we have high numbers already in the community – then the first places that will have to close will be the highest risk venues.

“Having the Covid Pass there will help them stay open during the autumn and winter – that is the purpose of it, not to be an extra burden on them or to single them out, but to protect them so they can go on operating successfully as we go into what is going to be a challenging time of year.”

French study: vaccination highly effective at preventing severe Covid cases

Agence France-Presse have news this morning of a vast study in France which shows that vaccination is highly effective at preventing severe cases of Covid-19, even against the Delta variant.

The research on prevention of severe Covid and death, not infection, looked at 22 million people over 50 and found those who had received jabs were 90 percent less likely to be hospitalised or die. Researchers say it is the largest study of its kind so far.

Looking at data collected starting in December 2020, when France launched its jab campaign, the researchers compared the outcomes of 11 million vaccinated people with 11 million unvaccinated subjects.

They formed pairs matching an unvaccinated individual with a vaccinated counterpart from the same region and of the same age and sex, tracking them from the date of the vaccinated person’s second jab to 20 July.

Starting 14 days after a second dose, a vaccinated subjects’ risk of severe Covid was reduced by 90 percent. Vaccination appears to be nearly as effective against for the Delta variant, with 84 percent protection for people 75 and older and 92 percent for people 50-75.

Sydney reopens after more than 100 days in lockdown

There were long queues outside pubs, hairdressers and beauty salons as Australia’s most populous city reopened on Monday, as part of Sydney’s first steps towards living with Covid-19 after more than 100 days of lockdown.

About 5 million Sydneysiders awoke to new freedoms on Monday morning after enduring 106 days of strict stay-at-home orders in a bid to battle the highly contagious Delta strain.

Despite an unseasonably cold and rainy start to the day, thousands defied grey skies and flocked to newly opened cafes, barbers and beauty salons to kick off what some have described as “freedom day”.

Some even queued outside department stores in the minutes before midnight to shop in-store for the first time in nearly four months. Others crowded into pubs to enjoy the day’s first freshly poured beers in a boost to the city’s hospitality and entertainment industry.

Read more here from my colleagues Samantha Lock, Mostafa Rachwani and Rafqa Touma in Sydney: With queues at the pubs and beauty salons, Sydney reopens after more than 100 days in lockdown

NHS Covid pass compulsory for large events in Wales from today

It is possibly a less exciting day if you are running a nightclub in Wales. From today people must show an NHS Covid Pass or demonstrate their vaccination status to enter nightclubs and attend large events in the country.

It means all over-18s need one to enter nightclubs, indoor non-seated events for more than 500 people, such as concerts or conventions, outdoor non-seated events for more than 4,000 people and any setting or event with more than 10,000 people in attendance.

People will also be able to show they have had a negative lateral flow test result within the last 48 hours.

But those who fake a coronavirus test result or vaccination status will be committing a criminal offence and face a fixed penalty notice.

Rod Minchin reports for PA Media that Wales is facing some of the highest infection rates since the beginning of the pandemic, particularly among young people.

Economy minister Vaughan Gething said: “Our fantastic vaccination programme continues to go from strength to strength but the pandemic is not over.

“Cases remain high across Wales and, unfortunately, families across the country are losing loved ones to this awful virus. The clear advice from our scientific advisers is that we need to take early action now.

“The Covid Pass is just one of a series of measures in place to help prevent people spreading and catching coronavirus while helping to keep the economy open.

“None of us want to see further lockdowns and for businesses to have to close their doors once again. Showing a Covid Pass is already part of our collective effort to keep businesses open.

England’s travel red list changes take effect

It is potentially a big day for the travel industry in the England. At 4am this morning, forty-seven countries were removed from the international travel red list. Arrivals from those locations will no longer need to spend 11 nights in a quarantine hotel.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has lifted its advice against non-essential travel to a further 42 countries and territories, following the removal of travel advisories to 41 locations last week.

PA note that just seven countries will remain on the red list from Monday: Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Haiti, Panama, Peru and Venezuela. People arriving from those locations will still be required to enter a quarantine hotel at a cost of £2,285 for solo travellers.

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WORLD STATS

Coronavirus Cases:

238,712,932

Deaths:

4,868,662

Recovered:

215,884,993
Highlighted in green
= all cases have recovered from the infection
Highlighted in grey
= all cases have had an outcome (there are no active cases)

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Latest News

October 11 (GMT)

Updates

  • 29,409 new cases and 957 new deaths in Russia [source]
  • 2,690 new cases and 128 new deaths in Mexico [source]

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