In a massive political disruption, new polling has pegged One Nation as the most popular party in the country, leapfrogging Labor in primary support.
The latest The Australian Financial Review/Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll revealed primary support for One Nation had jumped four percentage points to 31 per cent since the pre-budget poll a month ago.
Meanwhile, Labor's primary vote fell three points to 28 per cent and the Coalition dipped further to 20 per cent.
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Labor leads One Nation on a two-party-preferred basis but the gap has narrowed from 10 points to just 51-49.
Redbridge director Tony Barry told the AFR that a record 63 per cent of those polled believed the country was heading in the wrong direction, helping to explain the One Nation surge.
"The downstream effects of the budget and another interest rate rise is Labor have lost more vote share, but the Coalition aren't the beneficiaries on a primary vote basis," he said.
"With almost two-thirds of the electorate now saying Australia is heading in the wrong direction, that pervasive negative mood sentiment is fuelling more anti-establishment support and a view among a growing cohort of voters that the answer lies outside established norms and major parties."
9News political editor Charles Croucher stressed polls didn't directly translate into votes but One Nation could win seats if the trend continued.
If it won enough seats, the prospect of a two- or three-party Coalition could emerge.
One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson says she believes she can take the top job.
"I believe that I have the ability to do it. I'm not going to underestimate myself," she said.
Shake-up to AUKUS announced
The polling was released on the same day the government announced a major shake-up in the multibillion-dollar AUKUS deal, with Australia set to switch to used American nuclear submarines.
Defence Minister Richard Marles was in Singapore with his American and British counterparts, who agreed to greater collaboration on underwater drones and weaponry for autonomous subs and a change for the AUKUS agreement.
Australia will receive three used Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from America, not the mix of new and used boats as first planned.
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"This signature project will see our countries operating at the highest level," Marles said.
"In the context of a very complicated endeavour, we need to place a premium on simplicity."
Defence officials say this will make servicing and operations easier and significantly cheaper.
But Greens senator David Shoebridge was sceptical.
"Mr Marles went to Singapore to meet with his AUKUS buddies and he came back with a handful of second hand subs on a promise from the United States," he said.
China's leadership didn't attend this year's Shangri-La Dialogue but with wars still ravaging the Middle East and Ukraine the middle powers are praising the recent summit in Beijing, desperate to avoid regional wars becoming a world war.
"When great powers are talking with each other, the world feels safer. So we very much welcome that gathering," Marles said.
The AUKUS deal will be part of Australia's defence strategy for decades to come, forcing it to survive changes at the White House, Downing Street and in Canberra.
