ANALYSIS: When's the best time to break an election promise?

The government will be hoping it's when your political opponent is in a shambles and the national mood has changed significantly since a crushing election loss many blamed on the very reforms Labor is attempting once again.

Under this year's budget, the capital gains tax (CGT) discount and negative gearing have been wound back, ending longstanding and generous tax breaks that have been in place since 1999 and 1987, respectively.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR YOU? The winners and losers from the federal budget

PROPERTY TAX CHANGES: Chalmers takes a razor blade to negative gearing and CGT discount

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had refused to reform the two generous and popular benefits, repeatedly telling reporters during last year's election campaign that he would not tinker with the tax settings.

So what's changed?

Nine national affairs editor Andrew Probyn said this year's budget may have been the best time for Labor to break a key promise. 

"There are now many more younger voters than older voters and it's younger Australians who are finding it horribly hard to get into the housing market," he said.

"Politically, the Coalition is a diminished force.

"Perhaps there's never been a better time to break a rolled gold promise and get with it."

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has delivered on anticipated bold reforms in the face of rising gross debt that is forecast to reach $1 trillion in the next financial year and inflation that could reach 7 per cent by December due to the war in Iran.

"This budget includes the most significant tax reform package in more than a quarter of a century," he declared in his speech to parliament.

RELIEF FOR STRUGGLING SECTOR: Tax refunds coming for businesses who report losses

NIGHTMARE ON THE HORIZON? The budget forecast no one wants to see

The government will spend about $3.6 billion over two years to reform the CGT discount and negative gearing, which pales in comparison to the tens of billions the tax benefits have cost the budget over the years.

Some would say Albanese's previous vows not to tinker with negative gearing or CGT were smart, particularly since Labor under Bill Shorten lost the 2016 and 2019 elections after proposing changes to the CGT discount and negative gearing.

The risk the government has taken in making these changes is what has made this year's budget ambitious, added Probyn.

"This is an ambitious budget because it's attempting some tricky tax reform haunted by the ghost of Bill Shorten," he said.

The housing crisis, which sent the median house price soaring past $1 million, has prompted some calls to reconsider the property tax benefits, and ultimately spurred the government into a similar gamble as its stage 3 tax cuts backflip.

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By breaking an election promise, Albanese and Chalmers are promising to deliver changes they believe will benefit more people – roughly 75,000 of them getting to buy their first home – than they harm.

"Tonight, we choose the hard road of reform, not the path of least resistance, by responding to the pressures Australians confront today and fulfilling our obligations and responsibilities to the generations to come," Chalmers said.

Nine's chief political reporter Charles Croucher, however, warned the decision would take a long time to bear fruit for the government.

"These changes we've spoken about won't make a lot of money in the next two or three years, but it will change the way Australia looks at taxes, approaches wealth, particularly things like trusts and those big property portfolios," he said.

"He is trying to lay down a legacy, but he won't see the fruits of that legacy for quite some time."

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Sweeping reforms are coming for two of Australia's most controversial tax structures: negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount.

As largely expected, the 2026 Federal Budget has delivered a twin tax blow to landlords and property investors in a bid to make it easier for Australians to buy their own homes.

The federal government has spruiked the future benefits of the negative gearing and CGT discount changes as equivalent to reversing about a decade of decline in home ownership in Australia.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR YOU? The winners and losers from the federal budget

TAX CUT FOR WORKERS: 13 million Aussies to get $250 bonus

But, if you're an investor in newly-built homes or among the lucky landlords who bought a rental property before tonight, you have escaped the brunt of the tax pain.

Negative gearing scrapped for future investors

Negative gearing is on Treasurer Jim Chalmers' chopping block this budget, with the government winding back the friendly tax concession handed to property investors who lose more money than they generate on a property.

Until now, any homeowner was able to deduct a net loss from a residential investment property from their overall income and lower their total taxable income, and therefore reducing their yearly tax bill.

From July 1, 2027, negative gearing will be limited only to new builds. All existing properties bought after 7.30pm tonight, May 12, will not be eligible for the tax concession.

However, in a win for current investment property owners, the tax change is not going to applied retrospectively.

Existing investments will be shielded from the change and negative gearing will remain in place.

That means if you signed a contract to buy a home before 7.30pm, you have dodged the prospective negative gearing changes.

Investments supporting government housing programs, for example, through the provision of affordable housing, will also be exempt from the reform.

Investors who buy established housing after tonight will still be able to deduct losses against other residential property income, including rental income or other capital gains, and will be able to carry forward unused losses to future years.

NIGHTMARE ON THE HORIZON? The budget forecast no one wants to see

Around 1.1 million Australians had negatively geared properties in 2022-23, according to Treasury tax analysis.

Just 17 per cent of investor loans were for new builds in 2025.

Chalmers said the tax changes will "level the playing field" for first homebuyers and help around 75,000 Australians achieve their dream of home ownership.

Negative gearing has been a tense political flashpoint for years.

Greens and crossbenchers have long called on the government to wind back negative gearing and CGT discounts, criticising them both as unfair tax discounts which only drive up the price of homes and rent.

Real estate analysts, however, previously warned the changes to negative gearing could be catastrophic for renters.

It has been predicted that landlords could hike rent by up to 30 per cent in response to the changes.

However the government's own modelling suggests that the reforms will have a small impact on rents, with an expected increase of just $2 per week for households paying the median rent.

RELIEF FOR STRUGGLING SECTOR: Tax refunds coming for businesses who report losses

Chalmers takes an axe to CGT

The equally-contentious 50 per cent capital gains tax (CGT) discount will be replaced by a new type of discount, based solely on inflation, only for investors in existing properties.

The CGT discount is a $23 billion tax break which allows investors to sell an asset they've owned for at least a year and to only be taxed on half of the profit.

Investors will pay tax on their real capital gain when they sell a property from July 1, 2027.

Essentially, this means investors with lower gains will pay less tax, while anyone with gains "well above inflation" will pay more tax, according to budget papers.

Again, investors in new builds can keep enjoying the 50 per cent CGT tax discount, or chose the inflation-based discount.

There will be a minimum 30 per cent tax rate on capital gains from July next year too.

The CGT discount has been blamed for driving up house prices and making home ownership even more difficult for renters and younger Australians.

A 2026 report by Oxfam Australia claimed that just 24,000 of Australia's millionaires accounted for almost half the beneficiaries of the CGT discount.

The discount cost the government $21.8 billion in 2025-26, according to the Tax Expenditures and Insights Statement.

Both tax overhauls are forecast to save the federal government an estimated $1.35 billion by 2028-29 and $2.28 billion by 2029-30.

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The negative gearing changes will be central to tonight's budget.