With months to go before the US mid-term elections, Donald Trump's iron grip on the direction of the Republican Party shows no sign of loosening – and that could spell trouble for them.

Early primary contests in Republican races around the US have almost entirely gone to Trump-backed candidates, even those running against incumbent GOP representatives who Trump perceives as disloyal.

Republican Thomas Massie, a Kentucky congressman, is perhaps one of the highest-profile victims, losing in a primary race to retain his own seat after pushing back on Trump's war with Iran and consistently advocating for the full release of the Epstein files.

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But increasingly, there are fears that while Trump's MAGA movement remains in control of the Republican Party, it represents an increasingly small circle of voters.

The apparent paradox is that while kowtowing to Trump is the only way to get ahead in the GOP, it could result in a major thrashing for the party at the national polls.

"Trump's control is definitely not helpful in general elections, but I don't think there's evidence he cares much about the general election," United States Studies Centre research director Jared Mondschein told 9news.com.au.

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"Trump's name helps Republicans when it's actually on the ballot, but not when it isn't."

Mid-term elections in the US tend to go against the party in power, and Trump's popularity has taken a decided plummet.

Mondschein said Trump was reaching levels of historic unpopularity in the US, including among Republican-leaning voters, though he still enjoys near-universal approval among self-identified MAGA loyalists.

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"If the 2024 election were to be held again today, he'd lose it," Mondschein said, pointing to a collapse in support from demographics that backed Trump against Kamala Harris, including Hispanic voters and youths.

The unpopular Iran war, the recent "anti-weaponisation" Justice Department fund, the White House ballroom project, and ballooning living costs are all factors in this alienation.

But Mondschein said Trump, halfway through his second and final term as president, was "much more passionate" at this point about maintaining control over the GOP and MAGA, rather than broadening his appeal.

"It's hard to imagine him being popular," Mondschein said.

After the midterms

Among US political circles, it's a running joke that the Democratic Party is adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Nonetheless, most pundits are predicting a "blue wave" even in red-heavy states that could see the Democrats overtake the slim Republican majority in the House, and possibly even the Senate.

But regardless of what the Capitol looks like when the dust settles, Mondschein forecast changes ahead for the GOP.

"We're seeing the last of (Trump's) weight thrown around," he said.

Trump will officially be a lame-duck president after the midterms, with no more elections before the end of his term.

Mondschein said it was likely Republican lawmakers would begin to distance themselves – some with relief, some with reluctance – from the White House if the president's popularity continues to languish.

He said this would not be about their personal feelings for Trump but out of "naked self interest" in their political survival.

"Even in the reddest of red districts, you're seeing Republicans now pushing back," he said.

Days before winter officially begins, Australians are getting a preview of what's in store for the next three months – and it might not be the season many were expecting.

After a warmer-than-usual autumn, the Bureau of Meteorology's long-range outlook shows that much of the country is heading for a double dose of milder daytime conditions and warmer-than-normal nights.

Meanwhile, the southern half of the continent is on track for a parched winter, with rainfall expected to fall well short of typical totals.

Temperatures tipped to stay above average

While the forecast points to a milder winter overall, the Bureau says cold snaps, frosts and snow are still possible.

The strongest signals for warmer conditions stretch across much of southern Australia.

Victoria, Tasmania, NSW, southern Queensland, South Australia, and broad areas of Western Australia are at increased risk of above-average daytime and night-time temperatures.

The forecast follows an uncharacteristically warm autumn. Several slow-moving high-pressure systems brought unseasonably warm weather to the south-east, with Hobart reaching 26.9 degrees on May 1 – its highest-ever May temperature on record, dating back to 1882.

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Less rain forecast for much of the country

Rainfall is likely to be below average across large parts of southern, central and eastern Australia.

That includes most of NSW and the ACT, much of Victoria, South Australia, southern Queensland and the south-west of Western Australia.

The forecast does not mean those areas will miss out on rain entirely. Winter typically delivers between 100 and 400 millimetres of rain to many southern coastal regions, with lower totals inland.

The Bureau says rain-bearing systems are still expected this season, though overall totals are likely to be lower than usual.

Some regions have a less certain outlook. Parts of Victoria's south-east and sections of the NSW coast have roughly equal chances of recording above-average, below-average or near-average rainfall.

Tasmania is also bucking the broader trend, with above-average rainfall forecast for parts of the state's south-west.

Water storage and soils under pressure

This dry outlook comes as water systems in the south and west face mounting pressure. Australia's combined water storages are currently around 65% full, but many individual reservoirs have fallen below the halfway mark.

Notably, storage in the critical Murray-Darling Basin is at just 48 per cent capacity – about 9 per cent lower than this time last year.

Soil moisture also tells two different stories. While late autumn rains boosted root-zone moisture in eastern NSW and southern Queensland, soils in Western Australia have dried out rapidly.

While most southern agricultural regions experienced an early autumn break in March, farmers in parts of central Victoria are still waiting on that crucial opening rainfall to kickstart their winter crops.

What about the capitals?

The warmer weather is expected to be felt across most major cities.

Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and Hobart all sit within regions where above-average winter temperatures are likely.

Darwin is firmly in its tropical dry season, with daytime temperatures in some northern areas expected to track closer to average.

Snow still expected in the alpine regions

While warmer conditions are expected across the board, cold outbreaks can still bring snow.

Australia's alpine regions have already seen flakes this year, with parts of the Victorian and NSW Alps recording their first snowfall in late March.

Tasmania also experienced snow in elevated areas during early January.

The Bureau says snow can occur whenever freezing air combines with enough moisture, and a handful of strong cold fronts can have a major impact on seasonal totals.

Because individual weather systems heavily influence snowfall, the Bureau does not issue seasonal snow outlooks.

El Niño likely to develop

Forecasters are also keeping a close eye on the Pacific Ocean, where climate models indicate El Niño is likely to develop during winter.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently in a neutral phase, but all major models suggest conditions are trending towards El Niño.

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The weather system can influence rainfall patterns across northern, central and eastern Australia from winter into early summer, although the Bureau notes no two events are exactly alike.

While an El Niño event has not yet been formally declared, sea surface temperatures are already tracking well above average – particularly along the NSW coast and Tasmania, where marine temperatures are sitting up to 4 degrees higher than normal.

Increased fire risk in some areas

The winter bushfire outlook also highlights an elevated fire risk in parts of NSW and Western Australia.

The drivers behind the risk vary by state. In NSW, the danger is fuelled by prolonged dry conditions across central and northern regions.

Elsewhere, Western Australia's elevated risk in the north-west stems from a heavy wet season, which left behind abundant vegetation that is expected to dry out in the coming months.

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The Bureau of Meteorology is warning WA residents of an extremely strong cold front and deep low-pressure system that are set to impact southern parts of the state this weekend.

The system is set to lash Perth with areas of heavy rain on Saturday, along with severe storms.

Senior Meteorologist Sarah Scully says gusty thunderstorms could bring damaging to locally destructive winds of more than 125km/h, coastal hazards and even a risk of tornadoes on Saturday night.

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"This risk is expected to continue through until Sunday morning, and any tornadoes that do form will be very short-lived and very difficult to track," Scully said.

The impacted area may expand over the weekend as it's an "evolving weather situation", the bureau says, but the affected zone currently extends from Kalbarri down to Bunbury, including Perth, which is set to see damaging to locally destructive winds, meaning wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h.

Once those pass though, there's another wave of strong winds to be wary of, she added.

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"The strongest winds are expected with [a] low-pressure system that will push up into the south-west during Sunday evening," Scully said.

"Widespread destructive winds are expected to extend about the west coast and pushing into the south-west, where they will continue through until the early hours of Monday morning before that low-pressure system tracks into the bight, with the winds easing across the south-west and instead concentrating through the south coast."

The warning for the west coast of Australia comes after the cancellation of a severe storm warning over on the east coast, where heavy rain and storms hammered parts of the country.

The Queensland and NSW coasts, as well as regions further inland, copped a soaking this week, driven by a low-pressure system off the coast.

Falls of up to 80mm were recorded in south-eastern Queensland, and up to 70mm in NSW down to the Central Coast, with the storm warning covering the Mid North Coast, Hunter, North West Slopes and Plains, and Northern Tablelands districts.

Weatherzone's lightning detector showed 460,000 strikes within 800km of Dalby in southern Queensland in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday. 

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By the weekend, the forecasts for both Brisbane and Sydney show sunshine ahead, with temperatures peaking in the low 20s.

But on Saturday, another cold front will approach the south-east of the country.

As a result, showers will increase for South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and inland parts of New South Wales, with colder southerly winds coming up behind that system.

He was an educator, author, iwi leader and helped curate the landmark Te Māori exhibition.

Marie Zissen battled freezing currents for an hour before reaching shore.

Two others sustained injuries in the two-vehicle crash early this evening.

The shooting stemmed from a $40,000 drug debt owed to the King Cobras gang.