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Scientists mystified, wary, as Africa avoids COVID-19 disaster

At a busy market in a poor township outside Harare this week, Nyasha Ndou kept his mask in his pocket, as hundreds of other people, mostly unmasked, jostled to buy and sell fruit and vegetables displayed on wooden tables and plastic sheets.

As in much of Zimbabwe, here COVID-19 is quickly being relegated to the past, as political rallies, concerts and home gatherings have returned.

“COVID-19 is gone, when did you last hear of anyone who has died of COVID-19?” Mr Ndou said.

“The mask is to protect my pocket. The police demand bribes so I lose money if I don’t move around with a mask.”

READ MORE: NSW, Victoria record drop in COVID-19 cases

People are seen at a busy market in a poor township on the outskirts of the capital Harare in Zimbabwe.

Earlier this week, Zimbabwe recorded just 33 new COVID-19 cases and zero deaths, in line with a recent fall in the disease across the continent, where World Health Organisation data shows infections have been dropping since July.

When COVID-19 first emerged last year, health officials feared the pandemic would sweep across Africa, killing millions. Although it’s still unclear what the virus’s ultimate toll will be, that catastrophic scenario has yet to materialise in Zimbabwe or much of the continent.

Scientists emphasise obtaining accurate COVID-19 data, particularly in African countries with patchy surveillance, is extremely difficult, and warn declining infection trends could easily be reversed.

But there is something “mysterious” going on in Africa that is puzzling scientists, said Wafaa El-Sadr, chair of global health at Columbia University.

“Africa doesn’t have the vaccines and the resources to fight COVID-19 that they have in Europe and the U.S, but somehow they seem to be doing better,” she said.

READ MORE: Queensland PCR test requirement under review

When the coronavirus first emerged last year, health officials feared the pandemic would sweep across Africa, killing millions.

Fewer than 6 per cent of people in Africa are vaccinated. For months, the WHO has described Africa as “one of the least affected regions in the world” in its weekly pandemic reports.

Some researchers say the continent’s younger population — the average age is 20 versus about 43 in Western Europe — in addition to their lower rates of urbanisation and tendency to spend time outdoors, may have spared it the more lethal effects of the virus so far. Several studies are probing whether there might be other explanations, including genetic reasons or past infection with parasitic diseases.

On Friday, researchers working in Uganda said they found COVID-19 patients with high rates of exposure to malaria were less likely to suffer severe disease or death than people with little history of the disease.

“We went into this project thinking we would see a higher rate of negative outcomes in people with a history of malaria infections because that’s what was seen in patients co-infected with malaria and Ebola,” said Jane Achan, a senior research advisor at the Malaria Consortium and a co-author of the study.

“We were actually quite surprised to see the opposite — that malaria may have a protective effect.”

READ MORE: WHO urges vaccine uptake amid growing COVID-19 crisis in Europe

The nation of Mali shut its borders down before a single case was reported in the country.

Achan said this may suggest past infection with malaria could “blunt” the tendency of people’s immune systems to go into overdrive when they are infected with COVID-19. The research was presented Friday at a meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Christian Happi, director of the African Center of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases at Redeemer’s University in Nigeria, said authorities are used to curbing outbreaks even without vaccines and credited the extensive networks of community health workers.

“It’s not always about how much money you have or how sophisticated your hospitals are,” he said.

Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, said African leaders haven’t gotten the credit they deserve for acting quickly, citing Mali’s decision to close its borders before COVID-19 even arrived.

“I think there’s a different cultural approach in Africa, where these countries have approached COVID with a sense of humility because they’ve experienced things like Ebola, polio and malaria,” Sridhar said.

In past months, COVID-19 has pummeled South Africa and is estimated to have killed more than 89,000 people there, by far the most deaths on the continent. But for now, African authorities, while acknowledging that there could be gaps, are not reporting huge numbers of unexpected fatalities that might be COVID-related.

WHO data shows deaths in Africa make up just 3 per cent of the global total. In comparison, deaths in the Americas and Europe account for 46 per cent and 29 per cent.

READ MORE: Austria to enter lockdown, bring in mandatory vaccinations

Nigeria has launched a mass rollout of COVID-19 vaccines as it aims to protect its population of more than 200 million amid an infection surge in a third wave of the pandemic.

In Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, the government has recorded nearly 3000 deaths so far among its 200 million population. The U.S. records that many deaths every two or three days.

The low numbers have Nigerians like Opemipo Are, a 23-year-old in Abuja, feeling relieved.

“They said there will be dead bodies on the streets and all that, but nothing like that happened,” she said.

On Friday, Nigerian authorities began a campaign to significantly expand the West African nation’s COVID-19 immunisation. Officials are aiming to inoculate half the population before February, a target they think will help them achieve herd immunity.

Oyewale Tomori, a Nigerian virologist who sits on several WHO advisory groups, suggested Africa might not even need as many vaccines as the West. It’s an idea that, while controversial, he says is being seriously discussed among African scientists — and is reminiscent of the proposal British officials made last March to let COVID-19 freely infect the population to build up immunity.

That doesn’t mean, however, that vaccines aren’t needed in Africa.

“We need to be vaccinating all out to prepare for the next wave,” Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist at South Africa’s University of KwaZulu-Natal, who previously advised the South African government on COVID-19, said.

“Looking at what’s happening in Europe, the likelihood of more cases spilling over here is very high.”

Afghanistan

The impact of COVID-19 has also been relatively muted beyond Africa in poor countries like Afghanistan, where experts predicted outbreaks amid ongoing conflict would prove disastrous.

Hashmat Arifi, a 23-year-old student in Kabul, said he hadn’t seen anyone wearing a mask in months, including at a recent wedding he attended alongside hundreds of guests. In his university classes, more than 20 students routinely sit unmasked in close quarters.

“I haven’t seen any cases of corona lately,” Arifi said.

So far, Afghanistan has recorded about 7,200 deaths among its 39 million people, although little testing was done amid the conflict and the actual numbers of cases and deaths are unknown.

Back in Zimbabwe, doctors were grateful for the respite from COVID-19 — but feared it was only temporary.

“People should remain very vigilant,” warned Dr Johannes Marisa, president of the Medical and Dental Private Practitioners of Zimbabwe Association.

He fears another COVID-19 wave would hit Zimbabwe next month.

“Complacency is what is going to destroy us because we may be caught unaware.”

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Hundreds of sharks filmed in shallows of beach

Hundreds of leopard sharks have been filmed cruising in the shallows of a Californian beach.

The video was captured by photographer Scott Fairchild yesterday as he flew his drone above the clear waters of La Jolla in the city of San Diego.

Mr Fairchild told 9News seeing leopard sharks this far into November "is unusual".

READ MORE: Crowds descend on Australian capitals for pandemic protests

Hundreds of leopard sharks have been filmed basking in the warm shallows of La Jolla, California.

"They usually show up in the summer, July to October, but for some reason they are still here in high numbers," he said.

Every year, thousands of leopard sharks make their way to the warm waters to breed and hatch their young.

As Mr Fairchild's drone zoomed in you can spot the sharks' distinct markings.

Despite growing to an average length of 2.4 metres, Mr Fairchild said the animals are very gentle.

"I see them and swim with them daily," he said.

READ MORE: Why great white shark population is booming in California

Leopard sharks get their name due to their distinct markings.

Mr Fairchild is no stranger to large sharks.

He routinely photographs great whites off the San Diego coastline.

Just last month he captured an incredible encounter between a large great white who circled a young child on his board.

Drone operator Scott Fairchild estimated the size of the great white to be that of a "full grown man".

The pair regarded each other with curiosity before the shark swam away.

Experts say great white shark populations are thriving in California and along parts of the east coast of America.