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Comment: Normalizing US-Cuba Relations Would Benefit Caribbean

By Sir Ronald Sanders

If US President, Joe Biden, eases the trade embargo against Cuba, one benefit to developing countries, including the Caribbean, could be greater access to coronavirus vaccines at an affordable price.

Cuban scientists have been working on four vaccine candidates to counter the virus.  They believe that their most successful candidate, Sovereign 2, will enter a final phase of testing next month.

Vincent Verez, one of the leading scientists on the Cuban team, says that clinical tests, in two trial phases so far, have revealed that Sovereign 2 is “very safe with very few adverse effects”.

The scientific team claims that producing the coronavirus vaccine was made more difficult by the sanctions on Cuba.  They were not able to buy all the equipment and raw materials they needed, including spectrometers used for quality control.  Nonetheless, their work is continuing.  They have used a 20-year-old spectrometer that is still powerful enough to analyse the vaccine.

Cuba’s biotech sector is well developed, making eight vaccines (for other diseases) administered to children in the country and exported to more than 30 countries.  A successful coronavirus vaccine from Cuba would help to break the global control of the market by the big pharmaceutical companies in the US and Europe.

Cuba’s geographical location in the Caribbean and its willingness to share a successful vaccine with the developing world, would ease the pressure on Caricom countries which face a twin problem in relation to inoculating their people.  The first is to access vaccines being produced by the large pharmaceutical companies particularly, Pfizer and Moderna, and the second is getting better prices.

Caricom countries have not been able to vaccinate more than one per cent of their people despite herculean efforts by governments to secure vaccines. The COVAX facility, established by the World Health Organization, to negotiate both supply and price with the major vaccine suppliers, has encountered major obstacles and is yet to deliver any of the vaccines for which Caribbean countries have already paid.  A rollout is scheduled to start soon, but it will be less than 10 per cent of the quantities that were ordered.

The generosity of the Indian government in donating 570,000 does of the AstraZeneca vaccines to Caricom countries has helped them to get the inoculation programme started.  But to get to the point of vaccinating 80 per cent of their populations so as to achieve herd immunity, requires access to more vaccines at prices less than the suppliers are offering.

Given that the world’s richest countries have pre-ordered and pre-paid for supplies, the big pharmaceutical companies are under no pressure to reduce prices, or ramp up production, even as global demand is increasing rapidly. Pfizer expects about $15 billion in revenue this year from its Covid-19 vaccine developed with BioNTech.

Further, the governments of countries, in which the large producers of vaccines are located, have implemented measures, restricting exports of Covid-19 vaccines, citing intellectual property rights.  Pfizer and Moderna claim the rights to vast amounts of intellectual property that will be useful, if not necessary, for others to develop vaccines in the future.

Sadly, the governments of the countries in which Pfizer and Moderna are located have also spurned urgings to facilitate such exports.  Human rights, including the right to life and health, have been disregarded.

For these reasons, it would be beneficial to the Caribbean if the most promising of the four vaccines that Cuba is developing could secure World Health Organization (WHO) authorisation after successful testing.

While he was campaigning for the US presidency, Joe Biden pledged to reverse sanctions placed on Cuba by former President Donald Trump in his efforts to win Florida where a large number of Cuban exiles reside.

One of the most unfounded measures against Cuba is its listing, in the last days of Trump’s administration, as a sponsor of terrorism. The critics of this listing have rightly pointed out that it is unjustified and serves no purpose other than to further cripple the Cuban economy. More particularly, it will hamper deals between Cuba and other countries.  Governments of Cuba’s closest neighbours, including Caricom, have called for its reversal.

About 20 churches and religious organisations in the US also sent a letter on 17 February, to President Biden asking that the decision to include Cuba on the list of states sponsoring terrorism to be revoked.

At the same time, others, including the new Chair of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez, continue to demand harder and tougher measures against Cuba. The latter represents the opposition, most of whom want nothing less than the immediate collapse of the Cuban government.

President Biden’s instincts on normalisation of US relations with Cuba are grounded in the successful efforts of the Barack Obama administration of which he was Vice President. Nothing good will come from pursuing a decades-old failed policy that no one wants, except disgruntled Cuban-American exiles – a few of whom are in the US Congress.

(The writer is Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the United States and the Organization of American States.  He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and Massey College in the University of Toronto.  The views expressed are entirely his own) 

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Liberal MP Nicolle Flint quits federal politics

South Australian federal MP Nicolle Flint has announced she is quitting federal politics in an email to her constituents on Friday night.

"I have informed the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party that I will not be re-nominating for the seat of Boothby at the forthcoming election," Ms Flint wrote in the message, according to The Age.

"I will continue to work hard to serve you and my local community until the next election."

READ MORE: Craig Kelly says he will run independently after quitting Liberal Party

The email continued, "I will work to support the candidate who is pre-selected by our Liberal party members to ensure we return a Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, to guide our nation to out of the Covid-19 pandemic and beyond."

No reason was given by Ms Flint as to what prompted the surprise move out of politics.

READ MORE: SA begins vaccine rollout with premier first to receive the jab

Prime Minister Scott Morrison released a statement soon after Ms Flint's announcement, thanking The Deputy Whip for her service to the Liberal Party, and the country.

"Nicolle has delivered not just on local projects like the Oaklands Crossing and the Flinders Link Rail, but also in her advocacy for people battling endometriosis and managing the loss felt from stillbirth," the statement issued on late Friday evening read.

"Nicolle is an impressive and passionate Parliamentarian who was the first woman elected to represent Boothby," the Prime Minister said.

Ms Flint was first elected to Government in 2016 for the seat of Boothby and just scraped through with re-elected in 2019.

She is the only female South Australian federal politician in the lower house, and one of just 11 nationally.

Post Pandemic: Caymans May Limit Cruise Ship Traffic

In addition to cruisers, the Cayman Islands draws resort vacationers who come for such resort properties as the Kimpton Seafire Resort. (Photo by Scott Mayerowitz/The Points Guy)

The Cayman Islands appears to have hit a breaking point when it comes to cruise tourism.

Speaking at a briefing on Tuesday, the premier of the self-governing British Overseas Territory, Alden McLaughlin, said his government was likely to place limits on the number of cruise ships and cruisers that can visit the island destination when cruising resumes — a major policy shift that will have ramifications for more than half a dozen major cruise lines.

McLaughlin suggested that residents of the Cayman Islands, including business leaders, had made it clear they want a more balanced approach to tourism.

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“I think we have a very clear signal from just about every source that … we can survive without those large numbers [of cruisers] and … we need more balance. We need to not overwhelm the systems that we have by [the] sheer volume of people.”

Home to just 64,948 people, the Cayman Islands draws more than 1.8 million cruisers a year who arrive on hundreds of cruise vessels. At times, four or even five large cruise ships will visit the destination in a single day, depositing more than 10,000 cruise tourists in the destination’s capital, George Town.

In addition to cruisers, the Cayman Islands draws resort vacationers who come for such resort properties as the Kimpton Seafire Resort. (Photo by Scott Mayerowitz/The Points Guy)

Only two other Caribbean destinations — the U.S. Virgin Islands and Cozumel, Mexico — receive more cruisers in a year.

McLaughlin suggested that the limits on cruisers that his government may impose wouldn’t just be a short-term measure related to ongoing efforts to keep the island safe from COVID-19. It would be a permanent shift in the destination’s tourism focus.

“We are trying to diversify the whole tourism industry,” McLaughlin said. “What I foresee … is less focus on growing cruise tourism.”

Related: Where to use hotel points in the Cayman Islands

McLaughlin also announced that his government had decided not to proceed with the development of a cruise ship dock for Grand Cayman Island, something that has been controversial in the Caymans. The announcement marks a sharp about-face for McLaughlin and his government, which had supported the dock development until now.

The experience of living without cruise ships for the past year, McLaughlin suggested, has shown Cayman Islands residents and its leaders that they could survive without mass cruise tourism.

All cruise ship sailings to the Cayman Islands stopped in February 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic and have yet to resume.

“I think there is a silver lining always somewhere if you look hard enough for it,” McLaughlin said, referencing the coronavirus pandemic. “Having had to do without cruise tourism for a year, I think, has told us what the consequences of that [are].”

The islands will need to find new work for residents involved in cruise tourism whose jobs might be affected by a decline in ship visits, he added.

“Obviously, we still have significant numbers of our people who are unemployed or underemployed [due to the lack of cruise ship arrivals], because that was what their focus was, and we have to continue to find ways to give them the opportunities that they had or better for making a living,” he said. “But I think it is the clear signal that we have from the business community [and] from local people that we don’t want to go back to the large number of [cruise] visits.”

McLaughlin’s government faces an election in April. If it loses the election, decisions on future cruise tourism would fall to a different administration. But even if that happens, McLaughlin said a tourism strategy focused on fewer cruisers was likely to happen anyway.

“It is probably the only logical position that any government can come to,” he said.

He did add that cruise tourism wouldn’t be going away. It would just be capped.

“I’m not suggesting for a moment that we do away with cruise tourism, but that we cap the numbers so that our current system can accommodate [cruisers] in a better way, and the experience for those who do visit can be better.”

Major cruise lines that regularly send ships to the Cayman Islands include Carnival Cruise Line, Royal Caribbean, Princess Cruises, Celebrity Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Line, MSC Cruises and Holland America.

A spokesperson for the main trade group for the cruise industry, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Biden, Saudi King Speak Before Release of Khashoggi Killing Report

President Biden spoke with Saudi King Salman on Thursday ahead of the anticipated release of a U.S. intelligence report on the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi that is expected to implicate the king’s son, the Saudi crown prince.

The White House readout of the call made no mention of Khashoggi, but said the two leaders “affirmed the importance the United States places on universal human rights and the rule of law.”

“The President told King Salman he would work to make the bilateral relationship as strong and transparent as possible,” the readout stated. “The two leaders affirmed the historic nature of the relationship and agreed to work together on mutual issues of concern and interest.”

The waiting game: The United States is expected as early as Thursday night to release an unclassified report outlining the circumstances of Khashoggi’s death. Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and Saudi dissident who lived in Virginia, was lured to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 where he was attacked, killed and dismembered.

The expected declassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) concludes Prince Mohammed approved and likely ordered Khashoggi murdered, according to a Reuters report.

The U.S. was reportedly waiting to release the report until after Biden had a chance to speak with the Saudi king.

An ODNI spokesperson responded to a request for comment from The Hill on Thursday saying “we have no update to offer on timing, content, or process matters related to the release.”

Next steps: The release of the report could just be the first step to hold the Saudis accountable for Khashoggi’s death.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a Thursday press briefing that there are “a range of actions that are on the table” to hold the Saudis accountable, but that Biden would first have to speak to King Salman.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a briefing with reporters that the department is likely to “speak to steps to promote accountability going forward for this horrific crime” following the release of the report.

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Report: More than 6,500 Migrants Die Building Qatar’s World Cup Venue

  • On average 12 workers from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have died each week since December 2010 when preparations started 
  • The 6,500 deaths does not take in the huge Kenyan and Filipino workforce 
  • Most fatalities are categorised as ‘natural’ without going into underlying causes

More than 6,500 migrant workers have died during Qatar’s football World Cup preparations over the last decade, according to a report.

On average 12 migrants from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have died each week since December 2010 when Qatar was awarded the 22nd FIFA tournament.

The findings were compiled from government sources by The Guardian but the true migrant death toll is believed to be far higher because they do not include figures from countries that send huge numbers of workers to Qatar, including the Philippines and Kenya.

Over the last decade, the Middle Eastern country of just 2.8 million people has speedily constructed seven new stadiums, built a new subway, airport, motorways and even a new city, to transform into a footballing paradise for summer 2022.

But behind the stunning façades of the beautiful game, lies a grim reality of migrant workers packed into horrific dormitory accommodation by night as they spend their days toiling in deadly heat.

Workers toil in sweltering conditions inside the Lusail stadium in Doha in December 2019

Workers toil in sweltering conditions inside the Lusail stadium in Doha in December 2019

Migrant workers at the Lusail stadium. Most of Qatar's workforce for the tournament is from Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East

Migrant workers at the Lusail stadium. Most of Qatar’s workforce for the tournament is from Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East

An Amnesty International handout photo dated October 2012 shows a bunk bed in a dormitory for migrant workers in Qatar

An Amnesty International handout photo dated October 2012 shows a bunk bed in a dormitory for migrant workers in Qatar

A migrant worker in one of the tightly packed dormitories in Qatar

A migrant worker in one of the tightly packed dormitories in Qatar

While the deaths are not categorised by occupation, it is likely that workers from these countries died while working on projects related to the World Cup, says Nick McGeehan, a director at FairSquare Projects, which specialises in labour rights in the Gulf.

He told The Guardian: ‘A very significant proportion of the migrant workers who have died since 2011 were only in the country because Qatar won the right to host the World Cup.’

Officially there have been 37 deaths among workers on World Cup stadiums, with 34 of these defined as ‘non-work related.’

The terminology raises questions because it has been used in cases where workers have collapsed on construction sites.

Qatar has a migrant workforce of some 2 million, mainly young men from Africa, the Indian subcontinent and the Far East.

Based on the data obtained by The Guardian, the majority of workers’ deaths were put down to natural causes.

More than two thirds of Indian, Nepali and Bangladeshi workers’ deaths were ‘natural,’ while among Indians the figure was 80 per cent.

Often these categorisations were made without autopsy and, therefore, failed to understand the underlying causes for the so-called natural deaths, the report said.

It’s believed that many may have died as a result of Qatar’s oppressive heat, working 10-hour shifts in temperatures of up to 113 Fahrenheit (45C).

Janoub Stadium, formerly known as Al Wakrah Stadium, is a football stadium in Al-Wakrah. Qatar has constructed seven state-of-the-art venues for the tournament

Janoub Stadium, formerly known as Al Wakrah Stadium, is a football stadium in Al-Wakrah. Qatar has constructed seven state-of-the-art venues for the tournament

The Khalifa International Stadium in Doha, one of seven structures built to host the football tournament in summer 2022

The Khalifa International Stadium in Doha, one of seven structures built to host the football tournament in summer 2022

Qatari officials have previously claimed they are keeping workers safe by banning manual labour in unshaded outdoor areas between 11.30am and 3pm from mid-June to August.

But analysis shows that even outside those hours, temperatures reach levels that can cause heat stress.

The United Nations said in a report last year that migrant labourers in Qatar faced ‘high’ or ‘extreme’ risk of succumbing to heat stress during half of their working day.

Working in hot weather puts strain on the cardiovascular system and can lead to heart attacks and other complications.

Critics of the working conditions say that this is the reason why such a large proportion of migrant workers’ deaths are categorised as natural, despite a clear correlation to the occupational hazards they face.

‘The mortality rate among these communities is within the expected range for the size and demographics of the population. However, every lost life is a tragedy, and no effort is spared in trying to prevent every death in our country,’ a Qatari government said in a statement.

He added that all foreign nationals had access to free healthcare and that reforms in recent years had reduced fatalities among ‘guest workers.’

Migrant workers on a construction site in the Qatari capital of Doha in March 2013

Migrant workers on a construction site in the Qatari capital of Doha in March 2013

Other significant causes of deaths among Indians, Nepalis and Bangladeshis were road accidents (12 per cent), workplace accidents (7 per cent) and suicides (seven per cent).

Covid deaths do not feature disproportionately as infection rates have remained low in Qatar, with just 250 deaths among all nationalities since the pandemic started.

In a statement, FIFA said: ‘With the very stringent health and safety measures on site … the frequency of accidents on Fifa World Cup construction sites has been low when compared to other major construction projects around the world.’

They did not cite any evidence for this.

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Calls for urgent examination of airflow in WA quarantine hotels

An independent review into WA's quarantine system has called for an "urgent, expert examination" of airflow and ventilation in quarantine hotels after the COVID-19 outbreak that plunged the city into a snap lockdown.

Professor Tarun Weeramanthri, the former WA Chief Health Officer, also recommended an increase in testing of hotel quarantine workers as part of the ongoing review.

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He said once a full review of the ventilation in WA's hotel quarantine system was made, a risk assessment could be undertaken.

"I thought it was urgent that further assessment needed to be done and in the interim that further protective measures needed to be introduced," Prof. Weeramanthri said.

"I think what's needed to be done for the moment has been done.

"I think we need the further information in terms of the independent review of ventilation, then further risk assessment can be made from there."

Professor Weeramanthri said "ventilation must now be seen as a modifiable risk factor" for transmission in the hotel quarantine environment.

Perth and surrounding areas were placed into a five-day lockdown over a single coronavirus case.

"We should move ahead with more detailed assessments of that and what should be done to further reduce that risk," he said.

Prof Weeramanthri made the announcement during an update on the review.

WA's Chief Health Officer Dr Andy Robertson said the Department of Health welcomed Prof. Weeramanthri's interim advice.

"This review actually acknowledged the highly successful public health response to COVID-19 so far," Dr Robertson said.

READ MORE: Victoria's new coronavirus restrictions explained

WA has put 38,000 people into hotel quarantine since March last year.

Dr Robertson said the infected hotel worker with the contagious UK strain of COVID-19 was "the first case of community transmission in almost nine months".

The independent review is ongoing.

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Haiti Jail Break: 8 Dead, Including Prison Director

CROIX-DES-BOUQUETS, Haiti (AP) — A prison director was among at least eight people killed Thursday after several inmates tried to escape from a prison in Haiti’s capital, a police officer and witnesses said.

The incident occurred in northeast Port-au-Prince at the Croix-des-Bouquets Civil Prison, which was built by Canada in 2012 and is known for a 2014 breakout in which more than 300 inmates escaped.

Residents in the area who declined to be identified out of concern for their safety told The Associated Press that they observed a group of heavily armed men start shooting at prison guards before the inmates began to flee.

Gunshots could still be heard from within the prison several hours after the shooting began.

The police officer who confirmed the killing of the prison director to the AP, and declined to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said authorities were preparing to raid the prison and described the inmates as armed and dangerous.

At the time of the 2014 breakout, the prison held 899 inmates, some 130 over its capacity.

During Thursday’s incident, one escapee, 37-year-old Jhon Hippolyte, was shot in the back. He told the AP that he was serving a sentence for murder and was in the infirmary when he noticed everybody running and decided to join them.

AP journalists saw the bodies of at least seven men along streets near the prison. They had been shot. Their identities were not immediately available, and it wasn’t clear if they were inmates or who had killed them.

Video captured by residents shows one police officer leading a group of men tied together with a rope. It wasn’t immediately clear if they were inmates.

Authorities could not be immediately reached for comment.

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Brazil: Virus Deaths Top 250,000, Pandemic Out of Control

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil’s COVID-19 death toll, which surpassed 250,000 on Thursday, is the world’s second-highest for the same reason its second wave has yet to fade: Prevention was never made a priority, experts say.

Since the pandemic’s start, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro scoffed at the “little flu” and lambasted local leaders for imposing restrictions on activity; he said the economy must keep humming along to prevent worse hardship.

Even when he approved pandemic welfare payments for the poor, they weren’t announced as a means to keep people home. And Brazilians remain out and about as vaccination has started up — but rollout has proven far slower than was anticipated.

“Brazil simply didn’t have a response plan. We’ve been through this for the last year and still we don’t have a clear plan, a national plan,” Miguel Lago, executive director of Brazil’s Institute for Health Policy Studies, which advises public health officials, told the Associated Press. “There’s no plan, at all. And the same applies to vaccination.”

Whereas other countries’ daily cases and deaths have fallen, Latin America’s largest nation is parked on an elevated plateau — a grim repeat of mid-2020. In each of the last five weeks, Brazil has averaged more than 1,000 daily deaths. Official data showed a confirmed death toll total of 251,498 on Thursday.

At least 12 Brazilian states are in the midst of a second wave even worse than the one faced in 2020, said Domingos Alves, an epidemiologist who has been tracking COVID-19 data.

“This scenario is going to get worse,” Alves told the AP, adding that the virus was spreading faster among the population. In Amazonas state, where the capital, Manaus, saw hospitals run out of oxygen last month, there have been more than 5,000 deaths in the first two months of the year, about as many as in all of 2020.

“It is the most difficult moment that we have had since the confirmation of the first case,” Carlos Lula, chair of the National Council of Health Secretaries, was quoted as saying Thursday by O Globo newspaper. ”We have never had so many states with so much difficulty at the same time.”

Alves and other public health experts said the spread is exacerbated by authorities’ reluctance to follow recommendations from international health organizations to implement stricter restrictions.

It is up to governors and mayors to impose lockdowns or other restrictions to contain the virus. The states of Sao Paulo and Bahia recently introduced nighttime curfews, but experts say the moves are too late and insufficient.

“They are not containment measures; they are palliative measures, always taken after the fact,” said Alves, who is also an adjunct professor of social medicine at the University of Sao Paulo. “‘Lockdown’ has become a curse word in Brazil.”

Miguel Nicolelis, a prominent Brazilian neuroscientist, warned in January that Brazil had to either enter lockdown or “we won’t be able to bury our dead in 2021.” He had been advising northeastern states on how to combat COVID-19, but recently left his position, dissatisfied with their refusal to go into lockdown, the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper reported.

“Right now, Brazil is the largest open-air laboratory, where it is possible to observe the natural dynamics of the coronavirus without any effective containment measure,” he wrote on Twitter on Tuesday. “Everyone will witness the epic devastation.”

There are some exceptions, but they remain marginal and have failed to inspire a broader movement.

Sao Luis, capital of northeastern Maranhao state, was the first Brazilian city to go into full lockdown last May. It was successful, notwithstanding Bolsonaro’s efforts to undermine the restrictions and sow doubt about their efficacy, according to the state’s governor, Flávio Dino.

“It has been very difficult to manage distance and prevention measures,” Dino said, adding that the first obstacle was an economic and social one, especially after the federal government’s emergency pandemic aid program ended last year.

Lago noted that Bolsonaro rarely even comments on the pandemic anymore, and has effectively moved on to other priorities, including securing support in Congress for loosening gun control laws and passing economic reforms. His administration is seeking to reinstate some COVID-19 welfare payments, but for a smaller group of needy Brazilians.

The only preventative measure Bolsonaro consistently supported was the use of treatments like hydroxychloroquine, which showed no benefit in rigorous studies.

Bolsonaro’s administration has also adopted a hands-off approach regarding the vaccination campaign. It relied mostly on a deal to purchase a single vaccine, AstraZeneca, which has been slow in coming. The national immunization effort to date has relied mostly on Chinese-made CoronaVac shots secured by Sao Paulo state, though the federal government is now trying to buy others.

Brazil’s decades of experience with successful vaccination programs and its large nationwide public health care network led many experts to believe that immunization — even if it were to start with a delay — would be a relatively speedy affair. In previous campaigns, the nation of 210 million was able to vaccinate as many as 10 million people in a single day, health experts noted.

Five weeks after the first shot, Brazil has vaccinated only 3.6% of its population. That is more than double Argentina and Mexico, but less than one-fourth that of Chile, according to Our World in Data, an online research site that compares official government statistics.

“There is no way to be fast with a shortage of vaccines; that is the crucial point,” said Carla Domingues, who for eight years coordinated Brazil’s national vaccination program, until leaving her position in 2019. “Until there is greater supply, the speed will be slower, as you have to keep selecting who can be vaccinated.”

Meantime, the virus continues to run rampant across Brazil, and take its toll.

In the Sao Paulo state city of Araraquara there have been more deaths so far this year than all of last year and intensive-care unit occupancy surpassed full capacity, with people on waiting lists to enter ICUs and get treatment. Local authorities responded Sunday by announcing a full lockdown — making Araraquara only the second city to impose such a restriction.

“We never imagined we would reach this point,” said Fabiana Araújo, a nurse and a coordinator of the city’s committee to fight COVID-19. “It was the only option.”

—— AP writers David Biller contributed from Rio and Mauricio Savarese from Sao Paulo.

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Mexico: Monarch Butterfly Population Down 26%

MEXICO CITY (AP) — The number of monarch butterflies that showed up at their winter resting grounds in central Mexico decreased by about 26% this year, and four times as many trees were lost to illegal logging, drought and other causes, making 2020 a bad year for the butterflies.

The government commission for natural protected areas said the butterflies’ population covered only 2.1 hectares (5.2 acres) in 2020, compared to 2.8 hectares (6.9 acres) the previous year and about one-third of the 6.05 hectares (14.95 acres) detected in 2018.

Because the monarchs cluster so densely in pine and fir trees, it is easier to count them by area rather than by individuals.

Gloria Tavera, the regional director of Mexico’s Commission for National Protected Areas, blamed the drop on “extreme climate conditions,” the loss of milkweed habitat in the United States and Canada on which butterflies depend, and deforestation in the butterflies’ wintering grounds in Mexico.

Illegal logging in the monarchs wintering rounds rose to almost 13.4 hectares (33 acres), a huge increase from the 0.43 hectare (1 acre) lost to logging last year.

Jorge Rickards of the WWF environmental group acknowledged the lost trees were a blow, but said “the logging is very localized” in three or four of the mountain communities that make up the butterfly reserve.

In addition, wind storms, drought and the felling of trees that had fallen victim to pine beetles or disease, caused the loss of another 6.9 hectares (17 acres) in the reserve, bringing the total forest loss in 2020 to 20.65 hectares (51 acres). That compares to an overall loss of about 5 hectares (12.3 acres) from all causes the previous year.

Tavera said the drought was affecting the butterflies themselves, as well as the pine and fir trees where the clump together for warmth.

“The severe drought we are experiencing is having effects,” Tavera said. “All the forests in the reserve are under water stress, the forests are dry.”

“The butterflies are looking for water on the lower slopes, near the houses,” she noted.

Tavera also expressed concern about the sever winter storms in Texas, which the butterflies will have to cross — and feed and lay their eggs — on their way back to their northern summer homes in coming months.

“This is a cause for worry,” Tavera said, referring to whether the monarchs will find enough food and habitat after the winter freeze.

It was also a bad year for the mountain farming communities that depend for part of their income on tourists who visit the reserves. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, visits fell from around 490,000 last year, to just 80,000 in the 2020-2021 season.

Environmentalist and writer Homero Aridjis, who grew up around the reserve, said the decline in butterflies and rise in logging was not surprising, given the reduction in Mexican government funding for protected natural areas and environmental work.

“While the reserves were closed to tourism during practically the whole (winter) season, the way was open for loggers, with no control,” Aridjis said. “The question is, can the monarch migration survive this environmental negligence?”

The U.S. group Center for Food Safety called for the monarchs to be granted endangered species protection, noting “the minimum population threshold needed to be out of the danger zone of extinction is six hectares.”

It was unclear whether the drop in tourism income contributed to the increased logging. Rickards said there has long been pressure on the area’s forests from people who want to open land for planting crops.

Felipe Martínez Meza, director of the butterfly reserve, said there have been attempts to plant orchards of avocados — hugely profitable crop for farmers in the area — in the buffer zones around the reserve.

The high mountain peaks where the butterflies clump in trees are probably a bit above the altitude where avocado trees like to grow, Martinez Meza said. But the buffer zones provide protection and support for the higher areas, and he said more must be done to combat the change in land use.

Frequently, illegal logging is carried out by outsiders or organized gangs, and not by the farm communities that technically own the land.

Millions of monarchs migrate from the U.S. and Canada each year to forests west of Mexico’s capital. The butterflies hit a low of just 0.67 hectares (1.66 acres) in 2013-2014.

Loss of habitat, especially the milkweed where the monarchs lay their eggs, pesticide and herbicide use, as well climate change, all pose threats to the species’ migration.

While there was plenty of bad news for the butterflies — very few showed up to some historic wintering sites like Sierra Chincua — there was the welcome news that a new wintering site was discovered nearby, in a mountaintop near the Lagunas de Zempoala protected area, near Mexico City.

Tavera said the wintering site had always been there, but was so difficult to reach that it wasn’t discovered until earlier this month.

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