A health worker administers a dose of Johnson & Johnson vaccine against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to a resident, during mass vaccination at the Ilha Grande island, one of the most famous tourist spots in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil, July 10, 2021. REUTERS/Lucas Landau
SAO PAUsLO, Aug 7 (Reuters) – Brazil had 43,033 new cases of the novel coronavirus reported in the past 24 hours, and 990 deaths from COVID-19, the Health Ministry said on Saturday.
The South American country has now registered 20,151,779, cases since the pandemic began, while the official death toll has risen to 562,752, according to ministry data, in the world’s third worst outbreak outside the United States and India and its second-deadliest after the United States.
Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Aurora Ellis
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US COVID Surge Highest in 6 Months
CNN- The US is averaging more than 100,000 new daily Covid-19 cases each day, the highest in nearly six months, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The last time the seven-day average surpassed 100,000 cases was on February 11, according to the data. The country hit a 2021 low average of 11,299 daily cases on June 22.
And the surge, largely among unvaccinated people, has been fueled by the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus.
More than 63,250 Covid-19 patients were in US hospitals on Friday — a number that has generally climbed since a 2021 low of 16,152 on June 29, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.
The alarming uptick in cases and hospitalizations comes as millions of students are returning to schools in-person.
And conversations about mask mandates in schools are once again shaping the debate on mitigation efforts between state and local school officials.
In Florida, which has the highest Covid-19 hospitalization rate in the country, school officials told CNN on Saturday that they want to keep their students and staff masked. But they are concerned about the anti-mask mandate stance taken by GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, who threatened to pull funding from schools that implement such requirement.
“We’ve already seen children are sick right here in Broward County. We have a high school student that is fighting for her life with Covid. We’ve had two students throughout the state of Florida this past couple of weeks that have passed away from Covid,” Anna Fusco, president of Broward Teachers Union, told CNN’s Pamela Brown on Saturday.
“So students are dying. And to have this mandate with funds held over our head if we go forward with it just shows really, really poor leadership in our governor.”
DeSantis issued an executive order last week, telling the state’s health and education departments to create rules preventing local school mask mandates. Two different lawsuits have since been filed against the Republican governor over the executive order.
Andrew Spar, president of Florida Education Association, said some districts are mandating masks, but allowing parents to opt out their children to get around DeSantis’ order.
Hillsborough County Public Schools in Tampa will require face coverings when schools starts, but parents will have the opt-out option, Superintendent Addison Davis said Saturday in a statement.
“While the outcome may be the same whether we make face coverings optional or required with an opt-out, we believe this decision continues to illustrate that Hillsborough County Public Schools takes public safety seriously,” said Davis, adding that masks are optional for employees.
Orange County Public Schools in Orlando is also adopting the same opt-out rule for students, but employees, visitors, volunteers and parents will be required to wear masks, the district said.
Florida has fully vaccinated 49.5% of its total population, but the rate of virus transmission is still high, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Overall, the CDC recommends that everyone — students, teachers, staff and visitors — wear masks in schools.
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CDC: Unvaccinated more than twice as likely to get COVID-19 reinfection
Unvaccinated people are more than twice as likely than the fully vaccinated to get reinfected with COVID-19, according to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study released Friday.
The research determined that unvaccinated Kentucky residents who had a confirmed coronavirus infection last year had a “significantly higher likelihood of reinfection” than those considered fully vaccinated. The study concluded that the unvaccinated were 2.34 times more likely to contract COVID-19 again.
The CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) counters the argument that people previously infected with the coronavirus don’t need the vaccine because natural immunity offers enough protection.
The agency has already recommended that people previously infected with COVID-19 get vaccinated for more protection.
The study involved 246 Kentucky residents who were reinfected in May and June this year after having a confirmed 2020 case. They were compared to 492 controls who had a 2020 infection but were not reinfected.
Reinfection had previously been studied in laboratory settings, but the CDC noted there has been limited real-world data on the subject.
“These findings suggest that among persons with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, full vaccination provides additional protection against reinfection,” the report reads. “To reduce their risk of infection, all eligible persons should be offered vaccination, even if they have been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.”
The CDC said that natural immunity after recovering from COVID-19 without a vaccination “is suspected to persist for ≥90 days in most persons,” acknowledging it is “not well understood.” The report also said that variants could affect a person’s immunity to a natural infection.
The highly contagious delta variant was not as prevalent in May and June but has since become the dominant strain in the U.S. At the time, the alpha strain was the most common.
The agency noted that the reinfection numbers “might be overestimated” since vaccinated people are “possibly less likely to get tested.”
Some members of Congress, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), have said they do not plan to get the vaccine, citing claims that because they previously had COVID-19, they have immunity.
“Until they show me evidence that people who have already had the infection are dying in large numbers or being hospitalized or getting very sick, I just made my own personal decision that I’m not getting vaccinated because I’ve already had the disease and I have natural immunity,” Paul said in May.
BUENOS AIRES, Aug 5 (Reuters) – The Andes Mountain range, which draws skiers to South America, is facing historically low snowfall this year during a decade-long drought that scientists link to global warming.
Scant rain and snowfall are leaving many of the majestic mountains between Ecuador and Argentina with patchy snow cover or no snow at all as dry brown earth lies exposed.
As precipitation declines and glaciers retreat across the region, communities that depend on the mountains for water supply are likely to suffer shortages, said Ricardo Villalba, principal investigator for the Argentine Institute of Snow, Glacier and Environment Science Studies (IANIGLA). read more
“Here we are seeing a process of long-term decrease in precipitation, a mega-drought,” Villalba said.
“If you look at the precipitation levels right now for the entire Cordillera (Andes range), they show that it has either not snowed at all or has snowed very little,” he said.
The Southern Hemisphere is experiencing winter, when snowfall should peak.
Ski resorts have reopened after lengthy closures during the pandemic and are attracting jubilant skiers to the Argentina-Chile border. But scarce snowfall is forcing many resorts to move snow to cover popular runs or make artificial snow. read more
Satellite images from July 2020 and this year show a marked decrease in snow cover. That is mirrored in water level measurements for rivers.
The Andes’ glaciers, which between 2000-2010 remained the same size or even grew, are now receding, Villalba said.
“The glaciers are in a very dramatic process of retreat that is much more accelerated than we have seen before,” he said.
“This is unfortunately happening in all the glaciers of the Cordillera, and is strongly linked to the global warming process that is affecting the entire planet.”
Reporting by Juan Bustamante, writing by Lucila Sigal and Aislinn Laing; Editing by Cynthia Osterman
Realp, Swiss Alps: More than a century ago, the Swiss government started construction of a steam railway which would connect the Alpine villages of Brig and Disentis by way of the 7,086 foot high Furka Pass. For the local inhabitants, this would be a game changer-especially because travel between the country’s mountainous regions had always been difficult, if not impossible, especially during the winter months. Unlike today, there were no modern highways such as autobahns, and the roads which did exist were primitive and often dangerous due to their steep curves and exposure to mud slides and avalanches.
Meanwhile, the intricate process of building steam locomotives was launched in the town of Winterthur, a project which would last from 1913 to 1925.
Image by the Author.
Construction of the line itself began in 1911. By 1914, the first section connecting Brig to the village of Gletsch was officially opened. However, due to World War I, it was used primarily to move Swiss soldiers into defensive positions to protect the country from a potential invasion by Germany and its allies. Because of turmoil in the rest of Europe, government funding for the rail project ran out and work gradually ground to a halt. However, this didn’t impede the construction of six locomotives, the last of which was finished in 1925.
But at this point, there was little for them to do. The locomotives were moved into storage until work, it was hoped, would resume on the rail lines.
Then history repeated itself with the igniting of World War II. By 1942, Swiss railways were changing their source of power from steam to electricity, one of the first countries in the world to do so. Because of this innovation, a decision was made in 1947 to sell four of the remaining steam locomotives, as well as spare parts stored in a carriage, to Vietnam.
Image by the Author.
In 1982, construction of the mountain line was abandoned after the opening of the Realp to Oberwald base tunnel. The last steam powered journey between Brig and Disentis marked the end of an era. Or so it was believed.
But by 1992,, two cantonal districts of Switzerland, Uri and Valais, had realized that a resurrected steam railway in their region would quickly become a major tourist attraction. And, as things turned out, they were right.
Building and restoration began at a frenzied pace, largely because much of the work, especially the boring of tunnels and the laying of rails, could only be done during the summer months. The project involved more than seven hundred volunteers, including some of the country’s most talented engineers. In 1990, the Furka Dampfbahn (which had by now become a private corporation) agreed to buy back a total of four of the locomotives which were originally sold to Vietnam more than half a century before. The deal was done, and the first two arrived at the German port of Hamburg a few weeks later.
But getting these massive machines, which weighed tonnes , from there to Switzerland was an even greater challenge. But, in the end, the relocation was successful and locomotives were finally back home. Amid great celebrations, the steam train carried its first passengers from Realp to Oberwald in 2010. Since then, although it operates only between late June and October, it has transported, on average, over thirty thousand people each summer.
Image by the Author.
As for myself, I made my maiden voyage on the Furka Dampfbahn only a few weeks ago. To say that it was an amazing experience would be an understatement. And that’s without mentioning the spectacular scenery which we as passengers were able to see from our windows.
Image by the Author.
A truly memorable experience. And a chance to ride back into history when the first whistle sounds.
(The writer is Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the United States and the Organization of American States. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies at the University of London and Massey College in the University of Toronto.The views expressed are entirely his own)
Almost 80 years ago, Jamaica’s Norman Manley asked a question that has been echoing throughout the 12 independent English-Speaking Caribbean countries that form the Caribbean Community(CARICOM).
He asked: “are we satisfied to be obscure nonentities in a world where only larger groupings have the chance of survival and success?”.That question has haunted the minds of West Indians ever since. For, in answer to it, the West Indies chose not the path to a “West Indian nation standing shoulder to shoulder with all other nations of the world”, which he advocated, but the road to small, weak countries in a world where to be small is to be unimportant and to be weak is to be ignored.
The present 14 independent countries of CARICOM proclaim that they are collectively a ‘Community of Sovereign States’.More often than not in their relations with each other, and in their hemispheric and global affairs, it is their sovereignty that they exercise, not their community.Consequently, each of them has remained small, weak and inconsequential in global affairs.
This weakness has caused them to compromise the very ‘sovereignty’ to which they cling against each other, by entering client relationships with richer and more powerful countries.These relations are always subject specific and serve the convenience of the powerful countries.They produce no changes in the structural environment that entraps CARICOM countries. Such benefits, as are proffered, give little and do much to increase their dependency.
This situation was already a problem in the 12 English-speaking countries before CARICOM decided to widen its membership, rather than deepen economic and political integration among themselves.
Influential leaders in Jamaica had long answered Noman Manley’s question by deciding that the country’s future did not lie with CARICOM, except as a market for Jamaican goods and services, and, these days, for some of its migrants.Of all its leaders since Norman Manley, P J Patterson, emerged as the greatest CARICOM disciple and advocate, though not without ambivalence in his own party and fierce resistance from traditional thought-leaders in the Jamaica Labour Party.Jamaica’s unsureness about CARICOM served to slow, rather than to accelerate its cohesion, including on foreign policy issues.
The Bahamas chose to join the ‘Community’ but not the ‘Common Market’, opting to participate only in limited areas of functional cooperation but not in the free movement of goods, services and people, and not obliging itself to take shared foreign policy positions.
Closer to Miami than it is to any CARICOM country, and with the greatest portion of its trade in goods and services with the US, the Bahamas position is understandable.However, its equivocation on standing with the majority of CARICOM states, when it considers its own interests dictate other alliances, has deprived CARICOM of the decisiveness that it should display.If the Bahamas were an ‘Associated State’ of CARICOM, its current position would be more correctly represented, giving it opportunities for benefits from functional cooperation, without restraining foreign policy decision-making.
Haiti and Suriname were brought into the CARICOM fold, even as these uncertainties were evident.
Suriname, despite the language barrier and different legal system, has become an enthusiastic member of CARICOM, recognizing the benefits of collaboration with its closest neighbours.
In Haiti’s case, it never became wholly a member of CARICOM.Many of the rules of the organisation do not apply to Haiti, whose governments have tended to regard membership of the organization as a necessary convenience while keeping their eyes firmly fixed on France – the original colonial power – the United States and Canada which are the destinations for their migrants, legal and illegal, and the sources of aid.In its foreign policy decision-making, Haiti finds it difficult to pursue different paths from Canada, France and the US.
Haiti’s position is also understandable.Its endemic economic problems cannot be solved by CARICOM whose principal role can only be to advocate for Haiti’s interests internationally.However, given these circumstances, Haiti’s necessary alignments can restrain CARICOM from making decisions that are based on unanimity.
It might have been better for Haiti also to be an ‘Associate State’ in CARICOM where it could benefit from the functional aspects of the organisation, without being constrained by, or constraining, other member states.
Adherents to the purist theology of an integrated Caribbean, despite the obvious impediments that patently exist, and which delay the deepening of the CARICOM arrangements, will regard this commentary as heresy.But, in a world, where experience, shows the impracticalities of pursuing the ambitions of the CARICOM Treaty, in the present irresolution, rethinking is necessary.
Recognition of a weak CARICOM, brought about by reluctant participation of some members, was evident in the report of the CARICOM Commission on the Economy which proposed “a mechanism of ‘enhanced cooperation’ where a group of no less than five member states can move ahead with closer integration on a CARICOM Single Market and Economy matter, as long as the others do not object and are free to join at any point later. We believe that in the area of greater economic integration an ‘enhanced cooperation mechanism’ will overcome paralysis, where progress may be blocked by just one country or a small group of countries”.But, not even on that recommendation has CARICOM been able to move forward.
It is time to re-think the integration project, based on practical realities.The answers the region has been given to Norman Manley’s question require us to move ahead to reform and strengthen CARICOM so that its committed member states might try collectively “to stand shoulder to shoulder with all other nations of the world”.
Maybe if a smaller group could achieve success in greater cohesion and coherence, the others will recognize value and act to be a convinced part of it. But pretense that all is well helps none.
Responses and previous commentaries: www.sirronaldsanders.com
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SANTO DOMINGO, Aug 5 (Reuters) – Haiti’s government has requested help from the United Nations to conduct an international investigation into the killing last month of President Jovenel Moise, the country’s embassy in the Dominican Republic said on Thursday.
Haiti requested the aid in a letter dated Aug. 3 addressed to U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the embassy in the neighboring country said in a statement. Specifically, Haiti called for an “international commission of inquiry” to be formed, along with a special court to prosecute the suspects.
The letter, signed by foreign minister Claude Joseph, said that Haiti considered the attack on Moise in his residence an international crime due to the alleged role of foreigners in planning, financing and carrying it out.
Haitian authorities have detained former Colombian soldiers allegedly hired by a Miami-based security firm on suspicion of carrying out the assassination of Moise. read more
Haiti also said the U.N. support should follow the model of its inquiry into a 2005 terrorist attack in Lebanon, which killed 22 people, including the prime minister.
Reporting by Ezequiel Abiu Lopez, writing by Daina Beth Solomon, editing by Richard Pullin
WASHINGTON, Aug 5 (Reuters) – The United States on Thursday began flying Central American and Mexican families to southern Mexico in an effort to deter migration by bolstering a COVID-era expulsion policy at the U.S.-Mexico border, a person familiar with the matter said.
Nearly 200 Mexican and Central American family members were expelled deep into Mexico on Thursday in what are expected to be regular flights, the person said. The flights, which will include adults, aim to disrupt a pattern of repeat crossings under a U.S. border policy known as Title 42.
U.S. President Joe Biden has reversed many of the restrictive immigration policies of his Republican predecessor, former President Donald Trump, but has left Title 42 in place amid 20-year highs in border arrests.
Although health experts, pro-migrant advocates and some Democrats say the policy cuts off access to asylum without a clear health rationale, Biden officials argue it is necessary to keep U.S. detention centers from becoming overwhelmed during the pandemic.
Under Trump, some Mexican migrants caught at the U.S.-Mexico border were flown to southern Mexico. But the use of the strategy under Biden – and under the Title 42 order – is new, according to the person familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss government operations.
The United States will work with non-governmental organizations and shelters in southern Mexico to ensure that migrants can safely return to their home countries, the person said.
Mexico’s migration institute and foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Biden administration also announced last week that it would subject migrant families to a fast-track deportation process known as “expedited removal” to their home countries from U.S. detention centers. read more
The expulsion flights to southern Mexico will be faster than that process, the person familiar with the situation said.
Pro-migrant groups on Monday restarted litigation that aims to stop the Biden administration from expelling families under Title 42, which the administration renewed that day. read more
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), one of the groups challenging Title 42, has argued the policy denies migrants a legal right to claim asylum and returns them to situations of grave danger in Mexico.
Lee Gelernt, the lead ACLU lawyer in the case, said the flights to southern Mexico could also inflict harm.
“The Biden administration is apparently looking for new ways to expel people and in the process subject these desperate migrants to additional trauma,” he said.
Reporting by Ted Hesson in Washington, Additional reporting by Daina Beth Solomon; Editing by Mica Rosenberg and Gerry Doyle
The prime minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines has been hospitalised after being injured at a protest against a proposed vaccine mandate.
Ralph Gonsalves was walking through a crowd outside parliament when he was reportedly hit in the head by a stone.
Images show the prime minister bleeding as he was rushed away from the scene.
The finance minister said he had been transferred to Barbados for an MRI scan on the advice of medical staff, Reuters news agency reports.
Protesters had gathered on Thursday to demonstrate against plans to require most frontline health workers to be vaccinated against Covid-19.
Stones and water bottles were thrown at the protest, according to reports.
His office told Reuters the 74-year-old was hit by a “projectile”. Local media suggest it was a stone.
St Vincent and the Grenadines, which lies in the south Caribbean, is made up of more than 32 islands.
The country has recorded 2,298 coronavirus cases and 12 deaths since the pandemic began, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University. Almost 9% of the population has been fully vaccinated, the university says.
Its tourism industry has been badly impacted by the pandemic, and thousands of people were forced to leave their homes following a volcanic eruption in April.
Booster debate heating up: Moderna says booster likely needed before winter
Moderna said Thursday that its COVID-19 vaccine maintained 93 percent efficacy six months after the second dose but added that a booster shot will likely still be needed before the winter.
The efficacy rate was announced by the company ahead of an earnings call on Thursday, and is higher than the 84 percent efficacy rate of the Pfizer vaccine after the same amount of time.
Still, Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said on CNBC Thursday that the data was collected before the delta variant became prevalent in the United States, meaning the equation could change now that the delta variant is widespread.
While there is strong data for six months, the company said in a presentation that it believes antibody levels will “continue to wane and eventually impact vaccine efficacy.”
It added that the combination of delta, fatigue with wearing masks and people moving indoors as the weather gets colder will cause an “increase of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals.”
“Given this intersection, we believe dose 3 booster will likely be necessary prior to the winter season,” the company said.
And one group in particular could need booster especially soon: the immunocompromised
The Biden administration is working to get immunocompromised people booster shots of the COVID-19 vaccine “as quickly as possible,” Anthony Fauci said Thursday, calling the group “vulnerable.”
Administration health officials have said that booster shots overall are not needed at this time, but Thursday’s comments from President Biden‘s chief medical adviser signal a new urgency for additional shots to those with compromised immune systems.
That group includes people who have received organ transplants, are undergoing chemotherapy or are taking medications that suppress their immune system. Slides presented at a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advisory committee meeting last month estimated the group accounts for 2.7 percent of all U.S. adults.
“Immunocompromised individuals are vulnerable,” Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said at a White House press briefing on Thursday.
With some exceptions, he said, they “do not make an adequate response [to the COVID-19 vaccine] that we feel would be adequately protective.”
“It is extremely important for us to move to get those individuals their boosters, and we are now working on that and will make that be implemented as quickly as possible, because for us and for the individuals involved it is a very high priority,” Fauci said
But Mississippi is already recommending boosters for vulnerable people
Mississippi is encouraging COVID-19 booster shots for certain high-risk groups, as one of the least-vaccinated states in the country faces an onslaught from the delta variant of the coronavirus.
According to a memo from the state department of health, physicians should consider giving a booster dose of a COVID-19 vaccine to anyone who is immunocompromised, including organ transplant recipients, people taking immunosuppressive drugs, and people with underlying medical conditions such as chronic kidney disease.
While the overwhelming majority of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Mississippi are among unvaccinated individuals, the number of deaths among fully vaccinated people has been increasing.
Paul Byers, a physician with the state Department of Health, said in the memo that since April 1, more than 35 vaccine breakthrough deaths have been confirmed. For the deaths where the person’s medical history was known, 58 percent had either a known immunocompromising condition or history of kidney disease.
Guidance: The memo recommends waiting at least four weeks after the final dose of the original vaccination series before administering a booster. It also recommends physicians perform spike protein antibody testing to determine the presence, or absence, of detectable antibodies prior to booster dosing.
If a patient was originally given an mRNA vaccine, either Pfizer or Moderna, the recommendation is to consider using the same manufacturer for the booster dose. If the original vaccine was Johnson & Johnson, the recommendation is to consider using the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.
White House says no decision yet on foreign traveler vaccination rule
The White House on Thursday said that the U.S. is strongly considering requiring foreign visitors to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19, but that there has not been a final decision on whether such a requirement will be adopted.
“That is certainly under strong consideration, but it is under a policy process review right now that I won’t get ahead of myself,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at a briefing.
White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients on Thursday also said no decision has been made about how to reopen international travel and suggested other options were being considered beyond requiring foreign travelers to have vaccinations.
“That’s one of the paths that’s being looked at and considered, but there are alternative paths being looked at, at the same time,” Zients told reporters during a coronavirus briefing.
Shift in guidance: The comments represented a shift from guidance that a White House official provided a day prior. The official told The Hill that interagency working groups are working to develop a plan “for a consistent and safe international travel policy, in order to have a new system ready for when we can reopen travel.”
“This includes a phased approach that over time will mean, with limited exceptions, that foreign nationals traveling to the United States (from all countries) need to be fully vaccinated,” the official said.
Reuters first reported that the Biden administration is developing a plan to require foreign visitors to have COVID-19 vaccinations. There was not an indication on Wednesday that requiring vaccinations was among a handful of options being considered, or that the ultimate goal was not definitively to require vaccinations.
Biden administration sees ‘significant’ rise in vaccinations as cases surge
Top White House officials highlighted a significant rise in vaccination rates on Thursday as the U.S. endures surging COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths, especially in Florida and Texas.
The national vaccination rate reached its highest level since early last month with 864,000 doses administered, White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients told reporters. About 585,000 of those doses were the patients’ first shots, suggesting more unvaccinated people are getting the jab.
Zients stated that the vaccination rates in Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma and Mississippi have hit levels not seen since April.
“Importantly, we’re seeing the most significant increases in the states with the highest case rates,” Zients said.
But: The rise in vaccinations comes as the country struggles with COVID-19 — almost 83 percent of counties have “substantial” or “high” viral transmission.
Seven states with some of the lowest vaccination rates account for about half of new cases and hospitalizations this week, even though they make up less than a quarter of the population, Zients said.
Florida and Texas make up one-third of the U.S.’s new cases and more than one-third of the country’s new hospitalizations over the past week. A
Climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points.
The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.
Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level off eastern North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.
The complexity of the AMOC system and uncertainty over levels of future global heating make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.
“The signs of destabilisation being visible already is something that I wouldn’t have expected and that I find scary,” said Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who did the research. “It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”
It is not known what level of CO2 would trigger an AMOC collapse, he said. “So the only thing to do is keep emissions as low as possible. The likelihood of this extremely high-impact event happening increases with every gram of CO2 that we put into the atmosphere”.
Scientists are increasingly concerned about tipping points – large, fast and irreversible changes to the climate. Boers and his colleagues reported in May that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet is on the brink, threatening a big rise in global sea level. Others have shown recently that the Amazon rainforest is now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, and that the 2020 Siberian heatwave led to worrying releases of methane.
Amazon rainforest now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs
The world may already have crossed a series of tipping points, according to a 2019 analysis, resulting in “an existential threat to civilisation”. A major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due on Monday, is expected to set out the worsening state of the climate crisis.
Boer’s research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is titled “Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the AMOC”. Ice-core and other data from the last 100,000 years show the AMOC has two states: a fast, strong one, as seen over recent millennia, and a slow, weak one. The data shows rising temperatures can make the AMOC switch abruptly between states over one to five decades.
The AMOC is driven by dense, salty seawater sinking into the Arctic ocean, but the melting of freshwater from Greenland’s ice sheet is slowing the process down earlier than climate models suggested.
Boers used the analogy of a chair to explain how changes in ocean temperature and salinity can reveal the AMOC’s instability. Pushing a chair alters its position, but does not affect its stability if all four legs remain on the floor. Tilting the chair changes both its position and stability.
Eight independently measured datasets of temperature and salinity going back as far as 150 years enabled Boers to show that global heating is indeed increasing the instability of the currents, not just changing their flow pattern.
The analysis concluded: “This decline [of the AMOC in recent decades] may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability over the course of the last century, and the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode.”
Levke Caesar, at Maynooth University in Ireland, who was not involved in the research, said: “The study method cannot give us an exact timing of a possible collapse, but the analysis presents evidence that the AMOC has already lost stability, which I take as a warning that we might be closer to an AMOC tipping than we think.”
David Thornalley, at University College London in the UK, whose work showed the AMOC is at its weakest point in 1,600 years, said: “These signs of decreasing stability are concerning. But we still don’t know if a collapse will occur, or how close we might be to it.”
The Associated Press
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