Tag Archives: oceania

Rates cut to come later than hoped despite record spending slowdown

Australia's long-awaited first interest rates cut since 2020 is unlikely to happen until the very end of the year even though households are continuing to cut back on spending amid the cost-of-living squeeze.

Commonwealth Bank today became the latest financial institution to push back its rates cut forecast ahead of next week's Reserve Bank decision.

CBA had previously been expecting a cut in September and for the cash rate to be pushed down to 3.6 per cent by the end of the year – 0.75 per cent lower than what it is now.

READ MORE: Bonza goes into administration after cancelling all flights

But now, following last week's higher-than-expected inflation figures, it's predicting rates will be sitting at 4.1 per cent on the back of a single cut in November, with the flow-on effects to be felt throughout 2025.

"The recent inflation data coupled with a lower unemployment rate than we anticipated at this juncture means we push back the timing of our base case for the RBA to commence an easing cycle," CBA's head of Australian economics Gareth Aird wrote.

"Our base case now sees the RBA commence an easing cycle in November 2024.

"Our updated profile has one 25 basis-point (0.25 per cent) interest rate cut in 2024 that would deliver an end year cash rate of 4.10 per cent.

READ MORE: Man arrested after young woman found dead inside Sydney unit

"We now look for 100 basis points of easing in 2025 and have pencilled in one 25bp rate cut in each quarter over 2025… such an outcome would see the end-2025 cash rate at 3.10 per cent (compared with our previous call of 2.85 per cent).

"Given our estimate of the neutral cash rate, monetary policy remains restrictive through 2024 and 2025 on our forecast profile."

CBA's updated forecast came on the same day the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed households are continuing to cut back on spending amid the current economic headwinds.

Retail spending in March fell by 0.4 per cent, bucking the trend of consecutive rises in January and February.

Yearly spending growth now sits at just 0.8 per cent – the lowest in the last 20 years, outside the highly volatile pandemic years.

READ MORE: Pauline Hanson's tweet a 'fairly strong form of racism', court hears

Self checkout

"Consumers pulled back on retail spending in March as cost of living pressures remained high," ABS head of retail statistics Ben Dorber said.

"Underlying retail turnover has been flat for the past six months and was up only 0.8 per cent compared to March 2023.

"Outside of the pandemic period and introduction of the GST, this is the weakest growth on record when comparing turnover to the same time in the previous year."

Dorber said any economic uptick from Taylor Swift's tour in February had quickly been lost.

"The Taylor Swift-inspired boost in turnover for fashion and accessory retailers last month has proved to be temporary with an instant reversal this month," he said.

"Retailers told us that overall trading conditions remain challenging with consumers being cautious in their discretionary spending," Dorber added.

"Consumers continue to experience cost of living pressures with price rises in education, healthcare, housing and insurance."

The Reserve Bank's next decision on interest rates will be made next Tuesday, May 7.

Critically endangered marine life found dead in NSW shark nets, data finds

More than 130 marine animals, including 10 that are endangered, have been found dead in New South Wales shark nets this season, new data has found. 

The nets have caught 208 non-shark animals from September 1 to April 11, according to data obtained by Humane Society International from the NSW Department of Primary Industries.

Of those caught, 134 were found dead, including five critically endangered grey nurse sharks, four endangered leatherback turtles and one endangered loggerhead turtle.

READ MORE: Warning over 'stiff' syringes in some batches of Panadol Children

The data also found, 93 per cent of marine life captured in the nets were non-target animals and only 36 per cent were released alive.

"It's why NSW beachside communities are fed up with these wildlife death traps," marine biologist Lawrence Chlebeck said.

NSW's Shark Meshing Program sees shark nets installed on beaches from Newcastle to Wollongong every September through April and will be removed today for the end of the season.

Humane Society, however, said every netted beach was already fitted with alternative shark safety measures like SMART drumlines, alert systems and drone surveillance, which have been active for about a decade.

And four in five Australians – and 83 per cent of New South Wales residents – recognise they are entering shark habitat when they swim in the ocean and assume responsibility, an independent poll commissioned by the group found. 

READ MORE: Grandmother, mother allegedly assaulted after crash in Melbourne Zoo

Shark nets

Campaigners are consequently calling on Premier Chris Minns to stop deploying the "outdated technology".

"NSW has the best-funded and most advanced shark risk strategy in the world, so it's time the Minns Government retired the ineffective and destructive nets," Chlebeck said.

"Public sentiment and the science are in alignment—let's keep the nets out and the drones up," Australian Marine Conservation Society shark scientist Leonardo Guida said.

How Bonza flew into oblivion

Embattled airline Bonza flew tens of thousands of people on routes long ignored by Qantas and Virgin Australia, but Australia's skies are a brutally tough market.

For now it's uncertain if the death knell has clanged for Bonza, which made its first flight just 15 months ago, but a wave of shock cancellations and the carrier's distinctive purple and white planes being towed off the tarmac and repossessed is an ominous sign.

"Yes and no," was the response from Matthew Findlay, a director of Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting, when asked if today's development was a surprise.

READ MORE: How Brisbane's new runway has made life hell for many

A Bonza plane

"I would have thought they'd give it a bit more time (but) investors are always looking for the best return and return on the investment capital."

Findlay said passenger data he had crunched from the last 12 months showed Bonza had scored "massive stimulation rates" on routes to regional cities like Mackay and Townsville in Queensland, and Avalon in Victoria.

In the 12 months before Bonza launched, with a pledge to shake up domestic air travel, a miniscule 18 passengers flew direct between Sunshine Coast and Mackay.

Compare that to what had transpired over the last year, Findlay said, where Bonza had carried more than 45,000 people between those two airports, a whopping 250,000 per cent increase.

"A lot of people would have gone (from Mackay) to Brisbane in the past," Findlay said, and then travelled on to the Sunshine Coast by car or bus.

It was a similar situation for the Sunshine Coast-Avalon route, he said.

Just over 180 passengers flew between those two airports before Bonza took to the skies, but last year 50,416 passengers made that journey with Bonza.

"They were able to tap into a number of centres that were poorly served in connecting people to places they wanted to go," he said.

"These were untested markets … but what we have seen is that people have responded and travelled in their tens of thousands on some city routes that Bonza served."

The first Bonza plane took off from the Sunshine Coast for the Whitsunday Islands in January last year, one of 27 routes initially offered to 17 destinations.

Chief executive Tim Jordan, who cut his teeth with low-cost carriers Cebu Pacific and Virgin Blue, said Bonza wanted to invigorate new tourism markets by flying to overlooked regional communities.

Findlay said data from the last year showed Bonza had stimulated passenger markets in those places, particularly locations cold-shouldered by Qantas and Virgin Australia.

Those signs of growth could tempt a new investor to swoop in, Findlay said.

"The airline has only been operating for over a year. So it's still very early days in any sort of business really," he said.

"There may be a white knight out there, and (Bonza) will be able to resume."

READ MORE: Change in plane cockpits could forever change the way we fly

Bonza airlines check-in

It was possible execs at Qantas and Virgin were privately rubbing their hands at Bonza's apparent demise, Findlay said, but they'd be doing it with "some sort of caution".

"They don't want to be seen as dominating the market and not allowing or circumventing or crushing competition," he said.

"Competition is good for the market. It's good for consumers. It keeps existing operators focused on delivering what the customer wants."

It was difficult to know what had pushed Bonza to brink, he said, and there was likely no singular factor.

Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine had influenced fuel costs, and record interest rate hikes amid a cost of living crisis had likely stopped many people travelling. 

There was also the matter of an antiquated domestic take-off system at Sydney Airport which makes it very hard for new airlines to take on Qantas and Virgin Australia.

In June last year, Jordan told 9news.com.au Bonza wanted access to Sydney Airport.

"We believe we'd be able to serve 20 destinations from Sydney Airport," he said.

"Around 90 per cent of the routes we could serve from Sydney currently have no low-cost option for Australian travellers and nearly half of those routes don't exist at all."

READ MORE: The $50 billion airline set to shake up global travel

Bonza passengers board plane

Rex Airlines, another low-cost carrier, is desperate to be awarded some of the coveted spots away from Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin Australia.

The federal government is leading a review into possible reform of Sydney's system.

Bonza is backed by US private investment firm 777 Partners, which will now be working out what to do with the airline.

They are far from being novices in the low-cost carrier game, having also invested in Canadian airline, Flair Airlines, and South-East Asian-based Value Alliance.

Announcing their ambitions in 2021, managing partner at 777 Partners Josh Wander described Australian skies as a "huge opportunity" for Bonza.

It seems Bonza hasn't been able to cash in on that promise.

"Starting any airline is a lot of work," Findlay said.

"And every year it gets more and more difficult to make returns."