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New forecasting suggests a rare super El Niño could form within months and cause dry and extreme weather conditions across the world.

A relatively weak La Niña is currently on the way out and most experts believe an El Niño could arrive by winter.

Now, national and international weather agency data show that it could develop stronger than originally thought.

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https://x.com/Weather_West/status/2029694752199754045

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is anticipating El Niño to reach between 1.3 and 3.1 degrees above the average sea surface temperature.

If it forms at more than two degrees above average, this could create a "super" event.

A super, or very strong, El Niño event can cause catastrophic global weather and is associated with drier and warmer conditions in Australia.

These are considered rare and typically only occur every 10 to 15 years. 

Australia has only been affected by three super El Niño events since 1982, with the most recent in 2015.

While it is still too early to predict an El Niño, Australian and US modelling also point to an El Niño developing in unusually warm waters.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a one-in-three chance that the likely El Niño will be strong later this year.

"Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds," it said in its latest update.

"If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a one-in-three chance that it would be 'strong' during October-December 2026."

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The Bureau of Meteorology did not speculate on the strength of the El Niño but has forecast warmer-than-average sea temperatures in eastern and southern parts of the country from April to June.

Up to three degrees warmer than average temperatures are anticipated for the western Tasman Sea. 

"All models indicate a shift to El Niño is possible by the end of winter, however there is variation on the timing of this transition, with some suggesting development as early as May, while others delay onset until late winter," the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Weather and climate expert Ailie Gallant said the strength of the event will not be clear until around June.

"The European models and the US models and the Australian models at this stage are all forecasting for the central and eastern Pacific to be warmer than normal," the Monash University Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century's associate professor said.

"But there's this thing in climate science called the autumn predictability barrier, which tells us that what we forecast from February through to May is very uncertain.

"So while the tendency is in that direction, being able to say right now whether it will be a weak El Niño or a super El Niño is very premature."

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El Niño, La Niña and neutral are all stages of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate cycle, which is an atmosphere and ocean phenomenon in the Pacific that occurs every three to eight years and disrupts weather patterns around the world.

El Niño is linked to drier conditions, while La Niña is associated with wetter conditions.

Gallant said these cycles only form part of the story, and other weather events like cyclones and tropical lows also impact conditions. 

"El Niño tips the scales towards being drier in the east, but individual weather systems can change that on a dime," she said.

"We've had plenty of examples where El Niños have been very, very dry, but we've also had plenty of examples where El Niños have been much wetter than expected."

Last month, meteorologists began forecasting that a weak spell of La Niña that started in November is coming to an end.

The last El Niño event formed in 2023 for the first time in eight years and on the back of a triple La Niña from 2020 to early 2023.

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified again into a category 4 storm as it barrels towards 800km of Western Australia's coastline.

The storm, currently sitting about 210km north-west of Karratha, is forecast to cause destructive winds gusts of up to 230km/h, over 200mm of rainfall and a risk of flash flooding.

It is expected to impact the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts today.

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A warning zone encompasses residents from Port Hedland to Denham, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay and Carnarvon, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Gascoyne Junction.

Those south of Denham to Jurien Bay, including Kalbarri and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison, Yalgoo and Dalwallinu, are within the watch zone.

"Even though the system is offshore, it is quite a large system, so we're seeing some of those very strong wind gusts impact on shore," the Bureau of Meteorology's Ilana Cherny said in an update.

A flood watch has been issued for the western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central and Lower West Coastal catchments.

The storm was a category 3 cyclone earlier this afternoon, but has been upgraded to a category 4.

WA Premier Roger Cook has asked locals to "heed the advice of emergency services".

"We know you've got experience in dealing with cyclone events but they are unpredictable," he said.

Narelle has travelled across northern Queensland, the Northern Territory and now to Western Australia over the past week, intensifying and easing and intensifying again.

The cyclone is currently moving down the coast at a slow 17km/h and is forecast to strengthen even further to a category 5 storm, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. 

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Forecasting shows Narelle passing close to the North West Cape tomorrow before weakening as it turns inland across the South West Land Division on Saturday.

Narelle is expected to make a coastal crossing near Denham tomorrow night. 

"The system will curve around the Exmouth coast as a category four system, before hugging the Gascoigne coast and eventually crossing the coast and continuing south eastwards as it tracks inland, eventually weakening it to a tropical low," Cherny said.

"That raises the question exactly when and where the system will move onshore.

"We are looking at a coastal crossing sometime on Friday evening or Friday night, and it looks most likely about the Gascoyne coast, so somewhere between Coral Bay and Kalbarri, with the Denham area looking like the most likely scenario."

Perth is in for a soaking, with up to 100mm of rainfall on the cards this weekend. 

Some roads and ports across the state have been closed due to the storm. 

Several events in Perth have also been cancelled, postponed or relocated in anticipation of Narelle's impact later this week, including the End of Summer concert and the Classic Car Show.

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Preparations get under way

Kalbarri, which is in the watch zone, knows how devastating a cyclone can be after being smashed by Cyclone Seroja almost five years ago.

Taking no chances this time around, locals were stocking up on sandbags and tidying up yesterday.

Caravan parks in Kalbarri, as well as those further north in Denham and Exmouth, are evacuating travellers and turning away any new bookings.

Locals Mark and Janice Murrie lived through the category 3 cyclone in 2021 and are worried about what is to come.

"There will be a lot of stressed people here," Mr Murrie told 9News.

"Because the mental health after the last one – people were just shell-shocked"

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The vehicles were quickly stripped for parts and shipped to the Middle East.

Kiwis are estimated to lose about $3b a year to scams nationwide.