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Reserve Bank's stark warning for Aussie homeowners

Households on lower incomes, renters and recent borrowers with large debts are the most at risk of financial stress after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) aggressively hiked interest rates over the past year.

The RBA has released its financial stability review, which details how Aussie banks and households are coping in light of economic headwinds.

The central bank hiked interest rates to 3.6 per cent from 0.1 per cent a year ago in a bid to battle inflation but paused in April to see the lag effect of the rises

READ MORE: The Aussies trawling through trash to get groceries

In its review, the RBA provided a scenario analysis of homeowners with variable mortgages and how much spare cashflow or savings buffers these households may have.

But it also revealed something sinister: how many households are at risk of default or becoming trapped in their mortgage.

What does the bank say?

Let's talk about the models the bank proposed about the normal and worst-case scenarios amid economic turbulence with interest rates, inflation, low housing supply and rising property prices.

The baseline model is based on a cash rate of 3.75 per cent, the unemployment rate increasing to 3.75 per cent (it currently sits at 3.5 per cent) and an increase in wages by 4.25 per cent.

"In the baseline scenario, the share of borrowers with negative spare cash flow – that is, those whose scheduled mortgage payments and essential living expenses are projected to exceed their household disposable income – would reach around 15 per cent by the end of 2023, with many of these borrowers already projected to be in this position under the assumptions used in this model," the bank said.

But the adverse model – where things turn south – is based on a 5.5 per cent unemployment rate, a 3.75 per cent cash rate and no wage growth.

And in this scenario, the number of borrowers defaulting on their loans would increase to 17 per cent by the end of this year.

But the central bank emphasises this is the worst-case scenario and currently more than 60 per cent of all loans had balances in offset, redraw accounts equivalent to more than three months of scheduled payments and savings buffers up to a year.

READ MORE: Jarryd Hayne 'would be a target in jail'

What about the other 40 per cent? Well, that group is at risk of defaulting with less than three months' worth of mortgage repayments and a small savings buffer.

"Borrowers with these loans are potentially more at risk of struggling to service their debts, particularly if they experience shocks to their income or expenses," the bank said.

In the bank's baseline modelling, it shows around 9 per cent of borrowers could deplete their savings by mid-2024 and be unable to afford their home loans.

But this group could make adjustments to their working hours or non-essential spending to avoid this, the bank said.

In the worst-case scenario, it is only slightly higher at 10 per cent but the bank says the same thing – to cut down on unnecessary spending to avoid defaulting on their loans.

What's the overall picture?

The bank says most Aussies are in a good place to keep repaying their mortgages and banks are "well regulated, strongly capitalised, profitable and highly liquid" to keep lending.

There are, however, those on lower incomes, renters, and recent borrowers with large debts and little savings buffers who risk being pushed into financial distress.

The bank raised concerns about homeowners falling into a "mortgage prison" – where they can't refinance their loan because they don't meet serviceability assessments and will struggle to repay loans.

"Estimates suggest around 16 per cent of existing loans are unable to meet serviceability assessments conducted at current interest rates," the central bank said.

"If mortgage rates were to increase by a further 1 percentage point, the share of loans unable to refinance with another lender is estimated to increase to around 20 per cent."

Newer borrowers are "over-represented" in this cohort.

READ MORE: 'Very dangerous supercell' headed for four states

Properties in Melbourne, Victoria.

Renters are also at risk with lower incomes and an inability to adjust spending amid cost of living pressures.

But if renters suddenly pulled out of the market, the bank warned there would be more of a "material economic downturn".

And for low-income earners, mortgage stress is real with around 45 per cent of the poorest households with a home loan spending more than 30 per cent of their income on repayments.

The bank has warned the stress on households is likely to "continue for some time" with the risk of negative equity and defaults looming for homeowners.

"An increase in the share of households and firms falling into arrears on their loans is anticipated," the bank said.

There are also concerns about unemployment sharply rising from its current 3.5 per cent rate and if this happens the number of households in financial trouble would substantially increase.

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Woodchipper murder accused thought ex-partner's death was an 'accident'

The barrister for a woman accused of planning her ex-partner's murder via a woodchipper has told a Queensland jury she thought his death was an accident.

Sharon Graham, 62, is on trial in Brisbane Supreme Court after pleading not guilty to the murder of Bruce James Saunders, 53, at a property near Gympie on November 12, 2017.

Crown prosecutor Greg Cummings told the jury in his opening comments that Graham was an hour's drive away from the scene when Saunders was intentionally killed but before that day she had procured her new lover, Gregory Lee Roser, to carry out the murder.

READ MORE: The Aussies trawling through trash to get groceries

Sharon Graham, 61, and Bruce Saunders, 54, whose body was found in a woodchipper in Brisbane in 2017.

Cummings told the jurors they would hear from Peter John Koenig, who would tell them he was the only person to see Roser hit Saunders from behind with a 40-millimetre metal pipe and then repeatedly strike the victim's head while he was on the ground.

Cummings said Koenig would say he joined Roser in carrying Saunders' lifeless body to a large woodchipper and partially lower his body into the machinery to make it look like he had a fatal accident while clearing trees to help a recent widow sell her land.

READ MORE: Woman rescued after being buried alive for 10 hours in Brazil

Bruce Saunders

"Ultimately it comes down to (Graham) having manipulative control over three persons and as a product of that she stood to gain very substantial amounts (of money) that she desperately needed from Mr Saunders," Cummings said.

Cummings alleged Graham, who was on living a disability support pension of just over $800 per fortnight, murdered Saunders to inherit his house, car, $125,000 in superannuation and $750,000 in life insurance.

READ MORE: Jarryd Hayne 'would be a target in jail'

Sharon Graham, 61, and Gregory Lee Roser, 63, pleaded not guilty to the murder of Bruce Saunders in Brisbane.

In brief opening comments for the defence on Thursday, Graham's barrister Peter Richards said it was not in dispute that his client was the beneficiary of Saunders' will and insurance policies.

"Sharon Graham did not ask, counsel or procure either Mr Roser or Mr Koenig to kill Mr Saunders," Richards said.

"As far as Sharon Graham observed at the time, Mr Saunders died as a result of an accident and … one of the principal issues in this trial is the credibility and reliability of Peter John Koenig."

The trial is due to run for another 16 hearing days before Justice Peter Callaghan.

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Jarryd Hayne's bail continued after rape conviction

Jarryd Hayne will be allowed to spend Easter at home with his family after being found guilty on two counts of sexual assault.

At a hearing today, the former NRL player's lawyer argued he should be able to remain on bail while he awaits his sentence.

After many hours of hearing arguments, Judge Graham Turnbull said he wouldn't be rushed into a decision on what he described as "a hotly contested matter".

READ MORE: Man charged after woman and three children killed in NSW crash

The court briefly reconvened to hear further arguments, but Turnbull ultimately continued bail.

He will be sentenced at a later date.

Earlier, Hayne's barrister Margaret Cunneen SC argued he is too high-profile to go to jail just yet.

His wife faces the prospect of continuing to live off her husband's savings from his successful sporting career when he eventually does enter custody.

https://twitter.com/tiffgenders/status/1643853732164280323

Cunneen called Hayne's wife to the witness box in the NSW District Court and argued there were special or exceptional circumstances that should keep him out of jail until he's sentenced.

The 35-year-old fallen NRL star was found guilty on Tuesday of two counts of sexual intercourse without consent after sexually assaulting a woman on the night of the 2018 NRL grand final.

His wife Amellia Bonnici cried when asked if she and Hayne, married since 2021, had three children.

She was asked what the next few weeks would mean for her and her family without her husband around.

"I can't even put that into words," she said.

She told the court the family had been "living off my husband's savings" as he has not had paid employment since being charged.

They will continue to do so while Hayne is in custody, she said.

Jarryd Hayne leaves court after he was convicted by a jury of sexual assault on April 4, 2023.

The two-time Dally M Medal winner needs to be around to support and physically protect his family as they move out of Sydney before he returns to jail, Cunneen told the judge.

"It would be so oppressive to take this man from his family while those arrangements are made," Cunneen said.

During his last sentence, Hayne had to be segregated from other inmates because of his high-profile status.

The woman he assaulted in her suburban Newcastle bedroom cannot be identified.

A taxi waited outside as he played the woman songs on a laptop and watched the end of the grand final with her mother before performing non-consensual oral and digital sex on the woman for about 30 seconds, before they cleaned blood off themselves and Hayne continued on his journey to Sydney.

READ MORE: 'Very dangerous' system to lash four states

https://twitter.com/tiffgenders/status/1643774283842482176

Cunneen said special or exceptional circumstances including "unrelenting media pressure" on her famous client's case and the need to support his family should continue Hayne's bail.

She argued to Turnbull the circumstances in Hayne's case would prevent the judge being bound by recent changes to the bail act, which aims for people found guilty who will be going to prison to be taken into custody before they are sentenced.

"He's going to jail," Turnbull clarified.

Reports will need to be prepared before Hayne is sentenced and the judge is considering whether Hayne should be allowed to remain at large until then.

"This particular offender would be a target in the general prison population," Cunneen said.

"My problem at the moment is he's not going in as a sentenced prisoner, he's going in as a remand prisoner," the judge said.

Crown prosecutor John Sfinas said that happened all the time and the special or exceptional circumstances raised by Cunneen were not covered by the legislation.

"All it comes down to is the offender is a high-profile footballer," Crown prosecutor John Sfinas said.

The trial beginning in March was Hayne's third on charges laid in November 2018 following a referral to police by the NRL integrity unit.

Hayne previously spent nine months in prison after a jury in his second trial found him guilty, a verdict overturned on appeal due to "profoundly wrong" legal directions.

The jury in the first trial was discharged after being unable to reach a verdict.

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Ex-Indigenous affairs minister quits Liberals over Voice stance

Former Indigenous affairs minister Ken Wyatt, the first Indigenous person to hold the portfolio, has resigned from the Liberal Party over its decision to oppose the Voice to parliament.

Wyatt, a Yamatji man, served as the minister for Indigenous Australians under the Morrison government from 2019 to 2022, but lost his Western Australian seat of Hasluck at last year's federal election.

"I still believe in the Liberal Party values but I don't believe in what the Liberals have become," Wyatt told the West Australian today.

READ MORE: Dutton reiterates opposition to 'city-based' Indigenous Voice proposal

"Aboriginal people are reaching out to be heard but the Liberals have rejected their invitation."

In a statement this afternoon, a WA Liberal Party spokesperson said "we wish Mr Wyatt well for the future".

During his time in cabinet, Wyatt advocated for the referendum to be pushed forward and has since joined the government's Voice working group.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton was asked yesterday about the former minister being "deeply disappointed" about the Liberal stance.

"I have the greatest respect for Ken Wyatt," Dutton said.

"I've listened to his voice. I've listened to (South Australian Liberal senator) Kerrynne Liddle, I've listened to many Indigenous leaders for whom I have a great deal of respect.

"They have a contrary view to Ken's view, and we live in a democracy where we can consider the views of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians."

READ MORE: PM hopeful of Voice to parliament despite Liberals' opposition

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton at a press conference where he announced the Liberal Party will oppose the Indigenous Voice to parliament.

9news.com.au has requested a comment from Dutton's office today.

Last month, Wyatt encouraged Dutton and the Liberals to allow a conscience vote ahead of the referendum, warning that opposing the Voice could add to perceptions the party is racist.

"One of the questions I got asked frequently, and the first was the BBC when I was first elected… 'What's it like belonging as a member of the Australian parliament in the most racist country?'" he told the Guardian after the referendum wording was announced.

READ MORE: Lehrmann sues ABC over Higgins address to National Press Club

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese reveals the wording of the question to be asked on the referendum to establish an Indigenous Voice to parliament.

"And I always defused that. And then the second question they hit me with is: 'How do you cope working in a racist party like yours?'.

"That's a global perspective. It's not my perspective; it's a global perspective.

"So there is a perception about our party, which I am sad about, because the Liberal Party is a good party, and there are a lot of good people within the Liberal Party."

Wyatt's resignation comes after current Liberal MP Bridget Archer said she considered quitting the party over its Voice stance.

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'Feral' food combo goes viral ahead of Easter Show opening

An unlikely food duo has gone viral ahead of the Sydney Royal Easter Show opening after a photo of the "feral" combination was posted to Reddit.

Gummy Bear Loaded Fries is the latest wacky food available at the Sydney Royal Easter Show, and they've caused quite the ruckus.

READ MORE: When and where do Easter double demerits apply?

An unlikely food duo has gone viral ahead of the Sydney Royal Easter Show opening, after a photo of the "feral" combination was posted to online forum platform, Reddit.

"It's the new sensation, it's sweet and savoury mixed together where gummy bears melt on the fries," Jade Evens, creator of Neon Alley said.

Krispy Kreme chicken burgers and neon dagwood dogs are also available.

The dish stirred up further controversy after an image of the combo went viral on the forum one day before the start of the show.

READ MORE: Easter long weekend forecast across Australia

An unlikely food duo has gone viral ahead of the Easter Show opening, after a photo of the "horrid" combination was posted to online forum platform, Reddit.

Reddit users were quick to point out how bizarre the combination is, calling it "feral" and "a crime."

The original Reddit poster said he got the dish for free – although show-goers will have to pay for it – and that their daughter "picked out some gummy bears before throwing the rest away".

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