States of Emergency cover Whangārei and the Far North for seven days.

New forecasting suggests a rare super El Niño could form within months and cause dry and extreme weather conditions across the world.

A relatively weak La Niña is currently on the way out and most experts believe an El Niño could arrive by winter.

Now, national and international weather agency data show that it could develop stronger than originally thought.

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https://x.com/Weather_West/status/2029694752199754045

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is anticipating El Niño to reach between 1.3 and 3.1 degrees above the average sea surface temperature.

If it forms at more than two degrees above average, this could create a "super" event.

A super, or very strong, El Niño event can cause catastrophic global weather and is associated with drier and warmer conditions in Australia.

These are considered rare and typically only occur every 10 to 15 years. 

Australia has only been affected by three super El Niño events since 1982, with the most recent in 2015.

While it is still too early to predict an El Niño, Australian and US modelling also point to an El Niño developing in unusually warm waters.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a one-in-three chance that the likely El Niño will be strong later this year.

"Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds," it said in its latest update.

"If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a one-in-three chance that it would be 'strong' during October-December 2026."

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The Bureau of Meteorology did not speculate on the strength of the El Niño but has forecast warmer-than-average sea temperatures in eastern and southern parts of the country from April to June.

Up to three degrees warmer than average temperatures are anticipated for the western Tasman Sea. 

"All models indicate a shift to El Niño is possible by the end of winter, however there is variation on the timing of this transition, with some suggesting development as early as May, while others delay onset until late winter," the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Weather and climate expert Ailie Gallant said the strength of the event will not be clear until around June.

"The European models and the US models and the Australian models at this stage are all forecasting for the central and eastern Pacific to be warmer than normal," the Monash University Centre of Excellence for Weather of the 21st Century's associate professor said.

"But there's this thing in climate science called the autumn predictability barrier, which tells us that what we forecast from February through to May is very uncertain.

"So while the tendency is in that direction, being able to say right now whether it will be a weak El Niño or a super El Niño is very premature."

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El Niño, La Niña and neutral are all stages of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate cycle, which is an atmosphere and ocean phenomenon in the Pacific that occurs every three to eight years and disrupts weather patterns around the world.

El Niño is linked to drier conditions, while La Niña is associated with wetter conditions.

Gallant said these cycles only form part of the story, and other weather events like cyclones and tropical lows also impact conditions. 

"El Niño tips the scales towards being drier in the east, but individual weather systems can change that on a dime," she said.

"We've had plenty of examples where El Niños have been very, very dry, but we've also had plenty of examples where El Niños have been much wetter than expected."

Last month, meteorologists began forecasting that a weak spell of La Niña that started in November is coming to an end.

The last El Niño event formed in 2023 for the first time in eight years and on the back of a triple La Niña from 2020 to early 2023.

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Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle has intensified again into a category 4 storm as it barrels towards 800km of Western Australia's coastline.

The storm, currently sitting about 210km north-west of Karratha, is forecast to cause destructive winds gusts of up to 230km/h, over 200mm of rainfall and a risk of flash flooding.

It is expected to impact the west Pilbara and Gascoyne coasts today.

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A warning zone encompasses residents from Port Hedland to Denham, including Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay and Carnarvon, and extending inland to Pannawonica and Gascoyne Junction.

Those south of Denham to Jurien Bay, including Kalbarri and Geraldton, and extending inland to Murchison, Yalgoo and Dalwallinu, are within the watch zone.

"Even though the system is offshore, it is quite a large system, so we're seeing some of those very strong wind gusts impact on shore," the Bureau of Meteorology's Ilana Cherny said in an update.

A flood watch has been issued for the western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central and Lower West Coastal catchments.

The storm was a category 3 cyclone earlier this afternoon, but has been upgraded to a category 4.

WA Premier Roger Cook has asked locals to "heed the advice of emergency services".

"We know you've got experience in dealing with cyclone events but they are unpredictable," he said.

Narelle has travelled across northern Queensland, the Northern Territory and now to Western Australia over the past week, intensifying and easing and intensifying again.

The cyclone is currently moving down the coast at a slow 17km/h and is forecast to strengthen even further to a category 5 storm, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. 

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Forecasting shows Narelle passing close to the North West Cape tomorrow before weakening as it turns inland across the South West Land Division on Saturday.

Narelle is expected to make a coastal crossing near Denham tomorrow night. 

"The system will curve around the Exmouth coast as a category four system, before hugging the Gascoigne coast and eventually crossing the coast and continuing south eastwards as it tracks inland, eventually weakening it to a tropical low," Cherny said.

"That raises the question exactly when and where the system will move onshore.

"We are looking at a coastal crossing sometime on Friday evening or Friday night, and it looks most likely about the Gascoyne coast, so somewhere between Coral Bay and Kalbarri, with the Denham area looking like the most likely scenario."

Perth is in for a soaking, with up to 100mm of rainfall on the cards this weekend. 

Some roads and ports across the state have been closed due to the storm. 

Several events in Perth have also been cancelled, postponed or relocated in anticipation of Narelle's impact later this week, including the End of Summer concert and the Classic Car Show.

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Preparations get under way

Kalbarri, which is in the watch zone, knows how devastating a cyclone can be after being smashed by Cyclone Seroja almost five years ago.

Taking no chances this time around, locals were stocking up on sandbags and tidying up yesterday.

Caravan parks in Kalbarri, as well as those further north in Denham and Exmouth, are evacuating travellers and turning away any new bookings.

Locals Mark and Janice Murrie lived through the category 3 cyclone in 2021 and are worried about what is to come.

"There will be a lot of stressed people here," Mr Murrie told 9News.

"Because the mental health after the last one – people were just shell-shocked"

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The vehicles were quickly stripped for parts and shipped to the Middle East.

Kiwis are estimated to lose about $3b a year to scams nationwide.

Fuel importers must hold at least 21 days of diesel or face heavy fines.

At 74 years old, Larry Allison's alarm clock still goes off at 5.15am two days a week. 

While many his age are enjoying a quiet retirement, the former merchant banker and removalist is climbing behind the wheel of a school bus in Port Stephens, on the north coast of New South Wales, for his part-time job.

Allison is one of a growing number of Australian seniors who have discovered that a lifetime of hard work isn't enough to keep up with a modern cost-of-living crisis. 

He told nine.com.au he simply couldn't survive the increases in all of his major expenses if he didn't keep working.

"Everything just keeps going up – more than the rate of inflation," he said.

"Over the last 12 months, our electricity is up 33 percent, insurance has gone up by 20 percent, and it just doesn't stop."

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Allison originally thought he would retire at 65. Now, he estimates he will have to keep working until he is at least 80.

In a recent Change.org petition started by Allison, the pensioner laid bare the reality of his "golden years."

"I wake up each week knowing that I still have to work two days just to keep my head above water," Allison wrote. 

"I am an age pensioner, and after a lifetime of hard work, it's disheartening to see that I can't afford to slow down and enjoy my golden years at home. 

"Instead, I am forced to continue working because the cost of living has become unbearable."

Pensioners working longer than ever

Allison's struggle is reflected in a nationwide trend of Australians delaying full retirement. 

According to the latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data, retirement rates have plummeted over the last two decades.

In 2003, roughly 70 percent of women and nearly half of men aged 60 – 64 had fully retired. Today, those numbers have fallen to 41 percent and 27 percent respectively. 

Even for those in their late sixties (65–69), retirement is no longer a given: only 66 percent of women and 61 percent of men in this age bracket are fully retired, down from much higher levels twenty years ago.

The physical and mental toll of working into one's late seventies is significant. 

To keep his heavy vehicle licence, Allison undergoes annual driving tests and check-ups with an endocrinologist, a heart specialist, and a GP. This year, a cognitive test will be added.

"I had open-heart surgery three years ago… but I still managed to get back to work," he said.

Calls for reform: "Let pensioners work"

A common frustration for many working seniors lies with the pension income test. 

Currently, once a single pensioner earns over $218 a fortnight (or $380 for a couple), their pension payments are reduced by 50 cents for every dollar earned.

"When I was working three or four days a week, I was losing 50 cents in every dollar, plus paying 30 cents in tax," Allison said. "There was no point."

This sentiment is at the heart of the National Seniors Australia (NSA) "Let Pensioners Work" campaign. 

The NSA is lobbying the government to exempt employment income from the Age Pension income test entirely. 

They argue the current system effectively "taxes" seniors at a higher marginal rate than many high-income earners, discouraging them from filling critical labour shortages in sectors like aged care and agriculture.

Billy Pringle, Senior Policy Officer for the Combined Pensioners & Superannuants Association (CPSA), said the cost-of-living squeeze was becoming unbearable for many pensioners. 

While the pension is indexed to the CPI, Pringle points out that those increases always arrive after the prices have already spiked.

"Pensioners are always having to play catch-up," Pringle said. 

"We've heard from people who are eating less nutritious meals because they aren't able to get fresh fruit and vegetables… or they might be skipping meals altogether."

Pringle warns that for those who aren't physically able to "pick up an extra shift" like Allison, the situation is dire. 

"People have paid tax their whole life with the promise that they can retire, and then they are forced back into the workforce because of circumstance."

The shifting safety net

To prevent the pension from losing its value, the government uses a complex "triple-check" system for indexation every March and September. 

It compares the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures general inflation, with the Pensioner and Beneficiary Living Cost Index (PBLCI), which is tailored to the specific spending patterns of seniors – like higher healthcare and energy costs. The pension is increased by whichever of these two is higher. 

Finally, the rate is benchmarked against Male Total Average Weekly Earnings to ensure pensioners' living standards don't fall too far behind those of workers.

However, Pringle points out that these metrics often fail to capture the true financial burden on individuals, noting that while rent factors in at about 6 percent of the CPI and 20 percent of the PBLCI, "there's very few people for whom rent is only six or even 20 percent of their income and of their costs; mostly it's north of 30 percent."

While these shifts happen twice a year, they are often overshadowed by the "Work Bonus" rules. 

In late 2023, the federal government made significant reforms to this scheme, permanently increasing the "Work Bonus Bank" limit from $7800 to $11,800. 

This allowed new pensioners to start with a $4000 credit, theoretically letting them earn more from a job before their pension began to dwindle.

However, for Allison and thousands of others, even these "banked" credits disappear quickly under the weight of bill shock coming in.

"We just got our last electricity bill, it was $954 for the last quarter, and we have also just paid our rates – there goes another $2700," Allison said.

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A family of four who sold everything they owned to travel Australia in a caravan have been left blindsided by the soaring cost of diesel.

Sydney couple Lisa and Blake Walsh put their house on the market last year and took their two children and dog on an adventure of a lifetime.

The past seven months of travelling the country have been bliss – but it has almost become too expensive to keep driving due to the astronomical prices at the pump.

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The family paid nearly $500 to fill up at a petrol station in Rosebery on Tasmania's west coast.

"We have two kids and a dog, we've got our whole lives with us, so we are very heavy and fuel was already our biggest expense," Lisa told Nine.com.au.

"And now that that's completely blown out of the water, our whole budget's shot.

"We've really got to go completely back to the drawing board."

Diesel at a Tas Petroleum station in Rosebery was priced at $3.09.9 per litre yesterday.

This is slightly above the average of $3 per litre for diesel in Tasmania, according to FuelCheck.

The couple didn't even fill up an entire tank and it still set them back a staggering $495.

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"We can't afford to pay much more than this. Realistically, we're going to drain our savings pretty quickly," Lisa added.

"We will just [have to] pull up somewhere and get some work."

Lisa and her family are aiming to stay on the road for another two years, using money from the sale of their house to keep afloat, provided that fuel doesn't deplete their savings too quickly.

Other travellers have already buckled under the financial pressure.

Caravan parks are under threat of sitting empty as regional operators worry travellers will simply stay home over the Easter break.

"Some people that we know have just said that they're going to stop and work," Lisa said.

"I've seen cancellations left, right and centre online.

"People posting on Facebook groups saying, 'Oh hey, I had this site booked over Easter, but we're not going anymore'."

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Sydney travellers Brad and Karen, who take their caravan out on holidays and over weekends, told Nine.com.au that their personal limit is $4 per litre for diesel.

Despite growing nationwide concerns that fuel could nudge this price, the couple desperately hope it won't come to that.

"We haven't cancelled trips yet, but now budgeting $1000 in fuel or $4/l – effectively doubling the budget to cover costs for our next short trip, then assess the next big trip on what happens with fuel costs," Karen explained.

"Our last tank was $120 for only 43 litres of diesel and 280km travelled."

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The National Australia Bank is set to slash 170 jobs as it adds roles in Vietnam and India, amid its ongoing restructuring.

A total of 447 jobs are set to be cut, with 277 new roles set to be created in Australia, bringing a net total of 170 redundancies.

At least 237 new roles are also set to be created at NAB's offshore centres in both India and Vietnam.

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While NAB has not confirmed which jobs will be cut, the decision is part of the major banks' strategy to modernise their workforce, creating new roles in Australia and overseas.

In a statement, an NAB spokesperson said the company will continue to support workers in finding new careers and practical career transitions.

"As NAB has said for some time, building a modern workforce that best supports our customers is an important part of our strategy," the spokesperson said.

"Our workforce has been evolving to ensure we can help customers more consistently at the times they need us, and to help us access great talent in key markets.

"We continue to hire and develop people in Australia – especially in customer-facing roles – to strengthen our capability."

In a quarterly business survey released today, the bank announced that business confidence has fallen to a 15-month low due to the intensification of costs and labour. 

Wage costs were cited as the biggest issue affecting business confidence, with labour being reported as a significant constraint by several firms.

"Wage costs remained the biggest issue affecting business confidence, and the share of firms reporting labour as a significant constraint rose in the quarter, highlighting that the labour market has remained tight to start 2026," NAB Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Spence, said.

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An Islamic State (IS) speech that called on religious celebrations to be turned "into bloody massacres" could have inspired the Bondi terror attack, terrorism experts say.

The 2024 speech released by IS' main spokesperson called on sympathisers to intentionally target Jewish and Christian people, urging supporters to "kill them by the worst of means".

In a paper published in the West Point Combating Terrorism Centre, two Australian scholars believe the speech titled "And Kill Them Wherever You Find Them" was a call to arms for renewed attacks by IS supporters on Israeli and Western targets, and claim the Bondi attack carried similar themes to the ones outlined in the speech.

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"The speech included an explicit call to arms," the report from Andrew Zammit and Levi J. West said, adding it was reminiscent of a similar speech in 2014 that preceded a spate of Islamic terrorist attacks across Europe.

"[It] sought to inspire sympathisers to undertake terrorist attacks in their home countries and provided sanction for a range of tactics, suggesting that perpetrators, 'detonate explosives … [and] shoot them with bullets.'"

Sajid Akram and his son Naveed Akram, are accused of shooting and killing 15 people at Bondi Beach on December 14 last year, targeting a Hanukkah celebration.

They also allegedly threw IEDs towards the celebration before the shooting started, but the devices failed to detonate.

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Sajid was shot and killed by police, while Naveed was wounded and remains before the courts.

The authors say other aspects of the attack matched the callout in the IS speech, which called on followers to "pick easy targets".

"It explicitly stated that its targeting advice sought to ensure that any resulting attacks matched the movement's strategic and ideological logic," they said.

"[Followers were] being told to 'target synagogues and churches over military targets… [and to] carry out daring and courageous operations targeting Jewish and Christian gatherings and neighbourhoods everywhere, especially in Crusader European countries,'" the report said, quoting some phrases from the speech.

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The authors believe the Bondi Massacre is a consequence of IS' plans for resurgence in the aftermath of the war in Gaza, saying the group wanted to "remobilise its transnational support."

"[It] took care to not let the Israel-Palestine conflict overshadow the movement's global revolutionary goals and wider range of enemies," they said, saying the group wanted to renew attacks in the West, with a greater emphasis on attacking Jewish targets.

The Akram's allegiance to IS is alleged by police in its statements of facts relying upon a video they filmed in October last year, where they stand in front of an IS flag and claim responsibility for an upcoming "Bondi attack", evidence from the New South Wales Joint Counter Terrorism Team said.

The pair also travelled to the Philippines in November just before the attacks, which is alleged to have been done in their preparations for the attack.

An article in one of the organisation's publications also acknowledged the attack, saying the Akram's allegedly "answered the call and carried out the recommendations to target holidays and gatherings."

"They armed themselves with the Prophetic methodology and set off without looking back, plunging unarmoured into the Hanukkah celebration and turning it into a scene of mourning," the article said.

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