The chilling videos of a masked man outside Nancy Guthrie’s home in Arizona before she vanished show just glimpses of the suspect, but for investigators they hold a mountain of clues.

And those images, from the suspect's gloves to his flashlight, could be what's needed to break the case.

“There’s a tremendous amount of information that this guy left,” said former FBI profiler Clint Van Zandt.

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The FBI already has analysed the videos from Guthrie's doorbell camera to identify the suspect's backpack, posting an alert on Thursday with a photo of the brand and model in hopes of narrowing down tips flooding the agency.

It has been nearly two weeks since the mother of Today show host Savannah Guthrie was believed to have been abducted.

Former criminal investigators say it's almost certain that authorities are building a physical and psychological profile of the suspect, using the footage released publicly on Tuesday that totals less than a minute.

Whether authorities recovered more footage isn't known, but technology will allow them to see more than meets the eye.

“Every single thing that is in the video is being digitally enhanced. Everything from the mask to backpack to the jacket,” said Ed Davis, the former Boston police commissioner during the marathon bombing and manhunt in 2013.

Here's what was captured in the footage and what clues each might yield:

The backpack

It probably didn't take long to pinpoint the type of backpack the suspect was wearing, Davis said.

Technology available today allows investigators to break down photos and videos to the pixel, he said, giving them images of the stitching and maybe the manufacturer or brand name.

The FBI described the backpack as a black, 25-litre “Ozark Trail Hiker Pack.”

The holster

The FBI says the man on Nancy Guthrie's porch was armed.

But the video shows he had an unusual holster setup, hanging over the middle of his waist and not on the side. It might be an indication that whoever it was has little experience with firearms.

“I've never seen anything like that,” Davis said.

The gloves

The footage gives a close-up view of the suspect trying to cover Guthrie's doorbell camera, first with a gloved hand and then with part of a plant ripped from the yard.

The black gloves appear to be thicker than most and shimmered in the light.

“I spend a lot of time in Home Depot, and I've never seen those gloves,” Davis said. “They're not very common.”

The clothes

The suspect's zip-up jacket, pants, shoes and mask don't immediately stand out. But identifying one or more of those items could be a key.

Because once that happens, investigators can start looking at where those items are sold and combing through receipts and store surveillance cameras, starting with stores in the Tucson area closest to Guthrie's home, said Van Zandt, who spent 25 years with the FBI.

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Going through mounds of receipts and footage will take time and isn't something that would be done on most cases, but there's no shortage of people assigned to this one, he said. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department earlier this week said several hundred detective and agents have been assigned to the case.

“If all of the stars line up properly — and they rarely do — I find someone who was in there two weeks prior who bought the jacket, the shoes, the backpack all at the same time,” Van Zandt said.

The torch

In one of the videos, the suspect appeared to be holding a small torchin his mouth while in front of Guthrie's door.

Figuring out the type of torch might be difficult, but there's something else to look at there, said David Lyons, a former homicide detective and police commander in Lexington, Kentucky.

Not many people instinctively hold a torchin their mouth, but those who work in the trades might — such as an electrician or a plumber, he said.

“That’s a small thing,” he said.

“But at the same time, down the road, it could be something.”

The movements

Every step and movement the suspect made on the porch is worth a close look — from the way he walked, to how he seemed unhurried and how he grabbed the plant from the yard, Lyons said.

All of that will likely be used by behavioral analysts to create a profile of the suspect, he said.

“That’s what this will come down to,” Lyons said.

“Those small aspects added all together.”

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Sussan Ley's resignation will trigger a hotly contested byelection in her long-held seat of Farrer, giving new Liberal leader Angus Taylor an early test following months of dire polls for the party.

The outgoing opposition leader has (mostly) comfortably held the rural southern NSW seat for 25 years and nine straight federal elections – the second-longest tenure in the electorate's history.

The Liberal Party's charmed run in Farrer could come to an end as voters head to the polls for what is predicted to be a messy contest, after the surging One Nation threw its hat into the ring.

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The result – as well as that of the upcoming South Australian state election – could end up being an early hurdle for Taylor and the embattled party, or signal sunnier days ahead.

"(Taylor) has to get the team together," 9news political editor Charles Croucher said.

"Don't rule out things getting worse for the Liberal Party before they get better."

Ley's electorate has existed since 1949, but its current borders were drawn in 2016.

It comprises councils including Albury, Berrigan, Griffith and Leeton.

The Nationals have not contested the seat since Ley bested them in 2001 to become the local MP, but the junior Coalition partner may now take a run at the electorate alongside the Liberals.

Yesterday, Taylor refused to answer questions over which of the Liberals or Nationals – or both – will put forward a candidate.

"We know it'll be tough," he said.

"We know that because when we get out and about around Australia, the polls, we see the loss of confidence that there has been in the Liberal Party, and we've got to restore that confidence."

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He confirmed a conversation has taken place with Nationals leader David Littleproud, but did not say if a decision had been reached.

Even if only one of the Coalition parties puts forward a candidate, it could still prove a close contest.

Independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe was unsuccessful in her attempt to unseat Ley at the last election, winning 20 per cent of the primary vote, and falling short in the two-party preferred stakes by a little over 6 per cent – Ley's lowest margin since winning the seat in 2001.

Milthorpe has confirmed she will run again this year.

"For too long, the people of Farrer have been left wanting," she said yesterday.

"Party politics too often gets in the way of practical outcomes.

"Our communities deserve a reliable and relatable representative; someone who listens, understands our regional context, and is prepared to do the work in Canberra to make policy better reflect life in rural and regional Australia."

Pauline Hanson flagged One Nation will also put forward a candidate following the party's recent boost in the polls.

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"One Nation will soon select a candidate for Farrer, and we are calling on strong, community-minded locals to step forward," Hanson said in a statement.

"Farrer deserves an active, visible, and reliable representative, someone who will stand up for local families, farmers, small businesses, and communities in Canberra."

One Nation candidate Emma Hicks collected 6.6 per cent of the primary vote in the previous federal election.

It's unlikely Labor will contest the byelection given the party has not achieved a quarter of the primary vote since the 2007 federal election, said former ABC election analyst Antony Green.

"[It is] more likely Labor would sit out the contest and leave the field free for a conservative slugfest," Green said.

Glen Hyde was the ALP candidate for Farrer last year, and only secured 15.1 per cent of the vote in 2025.

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Taylor also has about 18 months to turn things around for the Coalition before the build-up to next federal election begins in earnest.

"What the party room has proven in the last nine months is it's not one for patience," Croucher said.

"Andrew Hastie remains nipping at his heels, he has to show change quickly to get himself to the next election. After that, it will depend on the result."

Hastie was shaping as another major leadership contender but withdrew from contention at the end of January.

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Meteorologists are forecasting that a relatively weak spell of La Niña is on its way out, with a growing possibility of the first El Niño event in almost three years to follow shortly after.

The Pacific has been experiencing La Niña since November, which is a period in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle that affects weather patterns worldwide.

It typically leads to cooler and wetter weather in Australia, but the event has been relatively weak this season. 

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The Bureau of Meteorology has forecast that La Niña is weakening even more, with sea surface temperatures falling into the neutral range.

"Recent warming in the sub-surface suggests further decay is likely in the coming weeks," the bureau said. 

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also forecast a 75 per cent chance of a transition to a neutral phase by March.

But it added there was a growing chance of El Niño from March to June.

"For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring," the administration said.

While the Bureau of Meteorology acknowledged that some models suggest a possibility of El Niño developing from June, it was a lot more cautious with its prediction.

"It should be noted that this is a very long lead time for such a prediction, and forecasts beyond autumn are highly uncertain, as reflected in the large spread across models and within ensemble members," the bureau said.

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Monash University's School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment adjunct professor Dr Andrew Watkins said it was still too early to predict El Niño, and forecasts will become clearer in the coming months.

"The second half of autumn, things start to become more settled, and it becomes predictions of what will happen for the rest of the year become more accurate," he said.

The last El Niño event was in late 2023, which was the second-hottest year on record and led to record-breaking temperatures across Australia.

Watkins said these cyclical events will be intensified by climate change, but are not the only factors leading to extreme weather events in Australia.

"Globally, we've just had 2025 come in at the third warmest [year] and yet it was La Niña," he said.

"In the old days, La Niña would give us a cooler year, not the third-warmest.

"We're moving away from having to have El Niño or La Niña to give us those extremes. Unfortunately, climate change is playing a bigger role every year."

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El Niño and La Niña are part of a natural cycle known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and are sustained periods of neutral, warming or cooling in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

El Niño is associated with warmer weather, while La Niña is cooler.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle loosely operates over periods of one to eight years. 

These events occur when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially warmer than average, disrupting weather across the world.

In simple terms, Watkins describes it as like "steam off a kettle".

"The El Niño really is a building up of warm water off South America, and we have cooler water near us, so the clouds form like white steam off a kettle, the clouds form over the warm water in South America," he said.

"When we get La Niña, the warm water is near us and the cool water is near South America and so we tend to get the clouds forming in our part of the world and it's wetter.

"The moisture follows the warm water."

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Angus Taylor has emerged victorious from today's Liberal Party spill to become the new opposition leader, revealing immigration reform and lowering taxes will be key policy pillars in his first speech as leader.

Taylor successfully challenged Sussan Ley, the first woman ever elected to lead the federal Liberals, after just nine months in the job following the party's thumping 2025 federal election defeat.

The Hume MP snatched the top job from Ley, winning the vote with a better-than-expected 34-17 margin during a party room meeting at Parliament House in Canberra.

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Taylor began his speech by thanking Ley for taking on the "incredibly difficult task" of leading the Liberals following the 2025 election loss.

"Her work ethic has been absolutely relentless," he said.

"She is a great person, a great Liberal."

The newly-elected opposition leader acknowledged the Liberal Party's staggering loss in voter support, saying that if an election was held today, "we may not exist by the end of it".

He then blamed Australia's rising house prices and economic instability on Labor's immigration policy.

"We'll stand for an immigration policy that puts the interests of Australians first, and puts Australian values at the centre of that policy," Taylor said.

"If someone doesn't subscribe to our core beliefs, the door must be shut."

He then vowed to scrap Labor's electric vehicle (EV) taxes, lower personal taxes altogether and to deliver more funding to the military.

"'This party must always be the party of fight Labor's bad taxes – taxes on homes, taxes on our children's future," he said.

"Under my leadership, the Liberals will nurture national confidence and love for our country.

"We'll focus on the things that unite us – family, community, and nation.

"And that revitalisation starts today."

Victorian senator Jane Hume has been elected deputy leader.

The outspoken Ley critic was one of four candidates alongside incumbent Ted O'Brien and fellow challengers Dan Tehan and Melissa Price.

Speaking alongside Taylor, Hume said she would make it her mission to ensure the country has a "bright future".

"The Liberal Party is a party of hope, and it is a party of aspiration. But most importantly, it is a party for all Australians," she said.

Hume had praised Ley's personal qualities to reporters outside Parliament House earlier this morning, despite calling for a change of direction for the party in recent days.

"Sussan Ley has been a diligent, hard-working servant to our party and to the country, but unfortunately, we're simply not cutting through now. Australians are rightly aggrieved," Hume said.

'No hard feelings': Ley quits parliament after being ousted

Ley was the first to speak after being toppled by Taylor during today's vote, where she announced her intention to retire from politics.

Her resignation will trigger a by-election in her electorate of Farrer in south-western NSW.

"I am not sure what comes next for me. I look forward to stepping away completely and comprehensively from public life," Ley said.

Ley was quick to assure voters there was "no hard feelings".

"Today I want to express gratitude for the Liberal party that I have known and loved for half of my adult life," she added.

"I wish Angus Taylor well. I know that he has experience, energy and drive."

Taylor set the wheels in motion for the spill earlier this week after resigning from the frontbench before claiming he believed Ley was unable to lead the party.

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Today's spill had been described as a "change-or-die" moment for the Liberals by senior conservative senator James Paterson.

Taylor yesterday put his case to the people of Australia head of his triumphant spill motion.

"The Labor government has failed and the Liberal Party has lost its way," he said in a video posted to social media.

"I'm running to be the leader of the Liberal Party because I believe that Australia is worth fighting for.

"I believe we need strong and decisive leadership that gives Australians clarity, courage, and confidence in providing a vision for the future."

Ley's short tenure as leader had been marred by two splits with junior Coalition partner the Nationals.

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A 16-year-old pedestrian is fighting for life after he was hit by a car in Melbourne's south-east.

Emergency services were called to Pound Road in Narre Warren South about 4.30pm following reports a car had struck a pedestrian.

The boy is being rushed ot hospital with life-threatening injuries.

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A specialist air ambulance crew and a mobile intensive care ambulance with advanced life support paramedics are on the scene.

The female driver of the car crashed into a tree and is being assessed by paramedics.

The exact circumstances surrounding the collision are yet to be established and an investigation is ongoing.

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Flooding and slips are closing state highways.

A kitchenhand has been charged with attempted murder, after he allegedly tried to kill a waitress at a Brisbane leagues club, hours after he was sacked.

Police say 33-year-old Cameron Clark was fired from the Easts Leagues Club in Coorparoo about 2pm yesterday for inappropriate behaviour towards a 20-year-old colleague.

They allege he came back to the club just after 5pm with a carving knife, targeting and attacking the woman in a hallway.

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She was stabbed in the head, hands and wrist.

One of the chefs stood in to protect her and was stabbed in the hip as the woman attempted to get away.

Clark allegedly then followed the woman into the dining area and attacked her again in front of dozens of patrons.

A group of bystanders jumped in to restrain him before police arrived.

"For everyone in the club yesterday afternoon, this is a life-altering event," Detective Superintendent Andrew Massingham said.

"Those people that were physically injured, those people that witnessed the event, they will forever remember what occurred yesterday."

The woman, from Norman Park, has undergone surgery today and is in a stable condition.

The alleged attacker remains in hospital under police guard.

He has been charged with one count each of attempted murder, unlawful stalking, acts intended to cause grievous bodily harm, unlawful wounding and going armed to cause fear.

He is due to appear in court on Monday.

The 61-year-old chef was also taken to hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

The club reopened today and said it is working to support staff.

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Disability advocates are calling to have rideshare services included in state-based taxi subsidy schemes with 98 per cent of participants in a national trial saying they'd back the reform.

Currently, Victoria is the only state to include rideshare in its transport subsidy scheme for people with eligible disabilities.

In a recent 12-week trial of a provider-neutral scheme conducted by Uber and disability inclusion consultancy Get Skilled Access, participants were given Uber credits equivalent to their state subsidy to use however they wished.

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The results, released on Thursday, showed 95 per cent of participants felt Uber met their transport needs, 97 per cent felt it met their access needs, 96 per cent felt safe and 92 per cent felt independent and empowered in their daily lives.

Almost all (98 per cent) backed rideshare being included alongside taxis in subsidy schemes.

Cheryle Lapthorne, a small business owner, parent and carer, lives in regional Tasmania with her daughter Matilda, who uses a wheelchair and is neurodiverse.

Lapthorne has multiple sclerosis and mobility challenges of her own.

She told 9news.com.au the availability of taxis in their area does not meet demand.

The family also regularly uses public transport, particularly when travelling interstate for specialist healthcare.

"When you're a young person with a wheelchair that can be really difficult to manage and the cognitive load on the caregiver, to try and sort that out, particularly when you've got children that are disabled, you never quite know what card to buy, where to top it up, what tram system to get on, does it work, how far do I have to walk," she said.

"(The trial) was just a reminder that travel can be accessible and functional.

"It has just really given us back the choice and control about how we travel.

"People don't understand the functional impact that being denied transport has on someone who may no longer have any spoons left for the day or may not have another accessible way to get home."

She said access to rideshare would be pivotal in allowing Matilda, who is almost 13, to have independence.

Uber's teen accounts allow teenagers to use the platform with consent and supervision from their legal guardian.

"She's able to pick where she wants to go and she's able to have a visual example of what that might look like on the screen, which is really accessible for her and calms the anxiety around 'where am I going?' and 'what am I doing?' for a neurodiverse person.

"As she grows, it will allow her to access the community in a meaningful way for her."

Matilda's wheelchair folds down and can fit in a small car, which means she doesn't necessarily need the same size vehicle as other wheelchair users either.

Lapthorne said having flexibility in what vehicle she uses means those services are available for others who need them.

"Not every disability is the same, so being able to have that choice and control about the need that meets you in that moment would probably be life-changing for a lot of people.

"Everybody should have the right to travel in the way that best suits them and allows them to join in the community."

The trial was backed by Vision Australia, Disability Voices Tasmania, Carers Australia, Children and Young People with Disability Australia.

Research by Vision Australia shows almost 60 per cent of people with disability would be more likely to use subsidy schemes if rideshare was included.

"For people with disability, travel is often complex, stressful and requires a level of planning that most people never think about," Vision Australia's general manager of corporate affairs and advocacy Chris Edwards said.

"When choice is limited, that burden increases.

"That's why we are calling for the urgent expansion of state subsidy schemes — a modest reform that would deliver life-changing impacts for our community."

Uber's general manager for Australia and New Zealand said state-funded taxi subsidy schemes had not kept pace with Australians' travel habits.

"This trial shows what happens when people with disability get genuine choice.

"Victoria's provider-neutral model is a strong blueprint, and this trial adds to the case for other states to back funding that follows the person, not the transport mode".

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Fire crews were called about 5pm after alarms and a 111 call.

Australian borrowers are bracing for mortgage pain as three of the big banks enforce the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate hike today.

The RBA's monetary policy board unanimously decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points, up to 3.85 per cent, at its first meeting of the year on February 3, in a move widely expected by economists.

CBA, NAB and ANZ officially shifted their variable rates for home loan customers today after confirming they would pass on the hike in full.

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Westpac variable mortgage customers will see their rates increase on Tuesday.

While the majority of borrowers saw their rate rise this morning, lenders are required to give those paying minimum monthly repayments more time to gather the extra cash.

Lenders must send customers a letter before adjusting their repayment and give them time to prepare for this higher amount.

After sending out letters to customers, Westpac, NAB and ANZ must give at least 30 days' notice before enforcing the new rate.

CBA must provide a minimum of 20 days' notice.

The hike will add around $100 to an average mortgage holder's monthly repayments, although many borrowers have a buffer built up thanks to last year's three cuts.

Following the changes Westpac is set to offer the lowest advertised variable rate out of the major banks at 5.49 per cent.

CBA's rates will today jump from 5.34 per cent to 5.59 per cent, the second most affordable option.

NAB will have the highest rate at 5.94 per cent, while ANZ is set to offer 5.75 per cent from today.

More broadly, the new average owner-occupier variable rate is estimated at 5.77 per cent, according to Canstar.

More than 40 lenders are tipped to offer a lower rate of 5.50 per cent on the same loan, while the new lowest variable rate is likely to be 5.25 pr cent once all the RBA hikes are made.

Canstar Data Insights Director Sally Tindall urged borrowers to "be proactive" and request a rate review following the cash rate increase.

"For an owner-occupier who's paying down their debt, a competitive rate is now around 5.50 per cent, but, once the dust settles, we expect the market leader to sit closer to 5.25 per cent," she said.

"If you're sitting on a rate starting with a 6, there's no sugar coating it: you're paying a loyalty tax."

In addition to the variable hikes this morning, ANZ has increased fixed rates by up to 0.40 on its owner-occupier principal and interest rates, to 5.89 per cent for a one-year term.

READ MORE: The RBA has hiked interest rates. So what does that mean for your mortgage?

That means Westpac now offers the lowest fixed rate out of the majors at 5.49 per cent for a one-year term, followed by 5.74 per cent from NAB under the same conditions.

CBA offers a minimum fixed rate of 5.94 per cent for a one-year term.

No lenders are offering under five per cent.

The lowest fixed rate is 5.09 per cent, according to Canstar, while seven lenders are offering fixed rates under 5.25 per cent.

Despite rates increasing on the whole, banks can still negotiate on an individual basis, Tindall said.

"If you haven't asked for a rate review in the last six months, pick up the phone or fire off a request from your banking app asking for one."

She also advised mortgage holders to resist the temptation to extend their loan terms or switch to interest-only payments in the wake of the hike.

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Switching to an interest-only loan for two years would decrease monthly minimum repayments for a $600,000 debt by $576, but would cost an extra $27,982 in the long-term, Canstar data shows.

For someone with the same debt, extending a 25-year loan term by five years would cost more than $134,000 over the life of the loan, despite minimum repayments dropping by $274 a month.

"While these moves offer immediate relief, potentially dropping repayments by hundreds of dollars, they can come with a massive sting in the tail," Tindall said.

"Before you sign up for years of extra debt, call your bank and demand a better rate. It's one of the best ways to lower your repayments without increasing the total cost of your loan."

Homeowners have been warned to prepare for possible future rate hikes, with economists predicting a further increase when the RBA meets next in May.

CBA, Westpac and NAB's cash rate outlook have all predicted a further 0.25 per cent increase in May, which would bring the cash rate to 4.10 per cent.

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