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'It won't happen to me': Melanoma rates to surge 50 per cent by 2040

The number of new melanoma cases will increase by 50 per cent worldwide by 2040, while deaths are set to surge 68 per cent, according to a new study.

International and Australian researchers have analysed the future and current impacts of the deadly skin cancer around the world, revealing there were 325,000 new melanoma cases and 57,000 deaths globally in 2020.

Melanomas killed 1725 Australians in 2020 and a further 15,229 new cases were diagnosed, data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer showed. 

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This photo, provided by the American Academy of Dermatology, shows a typical presentation of a suspicious mole that eventually was diagnosed as melanoma.

The study, published in the journal JAMA Dermatology, found Australia continues to have the highest incidence of melanoma in the world.

Australia has the second highest mortality rate behind New Zealand, with melanomas accounting for 4.5 deaths per 100,000 here and 5 per 100,000 across the ditch.

David Whiteman, a cancer epidemiologist at Brisbane's QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, is one of the study's co-authors.

Australia's melanoma mortality rate had dropped sharply over recent years thanks to the introduction of immunotherapy drugs which became available around 2014, Professor Whiteman said.

"In Australia, the melanoma mortality over the last six or seven years has actually been declining pretty pretty quickly, because of the new immunotherapy drugs that have come on board," Professor Whiteman said.

"So they're having quite a dramatic effect, whereas New Zealand has fewer drugs available and has been slower to license them so that's why our death rate is coming down more quickly."

Rates rising for Aussies over 60

Overall melanoma rates appear to be plateauing in Australia, Dr Whiteman said, with cases falling amongst the younger generations due to more awareness of the dangers of sun exposure, but still increasing in people aged 60 and over.

"Rates continue to rise in older people in Australia, particularly those in their 60s, 70s and 80s. 

"That's in part due to the fact that those people having a lot of sun exposure as kids back in the 1950s – before 'slip, slop, slap.'

"So they're kind of reaping the harvest of earlier sun damage."

Australia's growing and ageing population means the number of melanoma cases are still increasing, at least for now.

"We can hope that Australia might have peaked, that we can now start to reduce the rate of melanoma," Professor Whiteman said.

"We can turn the ship around, but it's a big ship and it's going to take a lot of turning.

"We can't expect it to happen quickly, but we can expect it to happen."

Meanwhile, in many other parts of the world – including Northern Europe, the US, Canada and the UK – melanoma rates are rising sharply, Professor Whiteman said.

'It was a tiny, inconspicuous thing'

Gold Coast psychologist Danielle Rancie, 30, is one Australian who has become passionate about spreading awareness of the dangers of sun damage, after she was diagnosed with a melanoma herself in 2019.

For Ms Rancie, her stage two melanoma came as a terrifying shock.

Ms Rancie, who was living in Townsville at the time, had gone to get a skin check after noticing a mole on her back had grown to the size of a 5 cent piece.

READ MORE: The letter sent from Jason Warne to his brother Shane 30 years ago

Danielle Rancie was diagnosed with a melanoma in 2019.

However, that particular mole, while precancerous, would turn out to be the least of her worries.  

While getting the skin check, the doctor noticed something Ms Rancie had not. 

"They found this little pinprick of a dot that was inside of another freckle on my left arm," she said.

"It was a tiny, inconspicuous thing. I wouldn't have even known it was there if the doctor hadn't looked at it with a microscope.

"That ended up being a stage two melanoma. It was a huge shock.

"I honestly thought I was fine.

"I was that typical person that thought, 'No I'm going to delay, I don't need a skin check. It won't happen to me.'"

A large mole on Danielle Rancie's back turned out to be pre-cancerous. But, to her surprise, her doctor picked up a tiny spot on her arm, which was a stage-2 melanoma.

Ms Rancie needed surgery to remove the melanoma and surrounding tissue.

Luckily, the cancer had not spread to her lymph nodes.

These days she gets full mole mapping done at regular skin checks, which have since picked up several suspicious spots.

Ms Rancie said the message was simple.

"Just go get checked, don't delay, don't think that you are that exception to the rule in that it can't happen to you," she said.

"Chuck on a hat, wear sunscreen and just don't worry about what people think, especially young girls in particular because there is that huge stigma around tanned being more desirable than white porcelain skin."

Contact reporter Emily McPherson at em********@******om.au

'An evacuation, then a non-evacuation, then an evacuation'

The SES has come under fire for its "confusing" warnings and instructions during the ongoing flood crisis in the New South Wales Northern Rivers region.

Currently more than 20 flood warnings for river systems are in place across the north and mid north coast, down to Sydney's Hawkesbury where a minor flood warning has been issued.

Lismore went under for the second time in weeks in recent days after the levee broke.

LIVE UPDATES: New 'bully' claim hits Prime Minister

Lismore was inundated for the second time in a month after heavy rains lashed NSW's north coast.

Resident and local business owner Nancy Casson said she was "incredibly disappointed" with the instructions from the SES.

"We had an evacuation, then a non-evacuation, then an evacuation again," she said.

"I don't know what is lacking in their instructions to us. I don't know why they constantly get it wrong."

Ms Casson attributed the back-and-forth to twin factors – the provision of weather data and predictions from the Bureau of Meteorology, and the fact that decisions were being made at a far-removed SES headquarters in Sydney.

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The Lismore SES unit thanked the 'wonderfully responsive community' for heading warnings.

"Their instructions to us are coming from somewhere, and that place is getting it wrong every time," she said.

"For me personally, the next time the BoM get it right will be the first."

SES Assistant Commissioner Nicole Hogan said she could understand the "emotion" in the community.

"Floods can be devastating," she said.

READ MORE: Bruce Willis diagnosed with aphasia

Local residents inspect a flooded road on March 30, 2022 in Lismore, Australia.

She said that when the evacuation order for Lismore had been lifted on Tuesday afternoon, it had been based on advice from volunteers and locals on the ground.

She said the priority at that point had been to help people recover from the recent flooding of some weeks ago, which involved letting people back into the ravaged community.

But an unpredictable thunderstorm, followed by flash flooding, triggered the subsequent re-imposition of the evacuation order.

"It is hard to predict that flash flooding can occur," Assistant Commissioner Hogan said.

She pointed out that flash flooding and severe weather warnings had been in place for the region for some days.

And she disputed the suggestion that SES command's distance from the crisis region was a problem.

"We work with our volunteers, and our volunteers work with the community," she said.

'I have no doubt that he is a bully': Lambie hits out at Morrison

Senator Jacqui Lambie has joined the wave of criticism against Prime Minister Scott Morrison, saying she had "no doubt" he was a bully.

She is the third senator to level that accusation at the PM, following outgoing Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells' searing address in Parliament House.

Senator Fierravanti-Wells, who had been placed in an unwinnable third spot on the NSW Liberal Senate ticket for the federal election, said Mr Morrison was a "bully" and an "autocrat" without a moral compass who was "unfit" for office.

LIVE UPDATES: New 'bully' claim hits Prime Minister

She was supported by One Nation Senator Pauline Hanson, who "absolutely" backed up her claims.

Now, Senator Lambie has joined them.

"I have no doubt that he is a bully, I've dealt with him one on one," she told Today this morning.

"He got everything he deserved from (Senator Fierravanti-Wells) this week, and honestly, good for her. It's been a long time coming."

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Mr Morrison yesterday dismissed the accusations, suggesting that Senator Fierravanti-Wells had simply been "disappointed" with the pre-selection results.

"She's been similarly disappointed in the past with my predecessors," Mr Morrison said.

"There were 500 people from the Liberal Party who turned up on the weekend to make their choice about who they wanted to represent them."

Senators Marise Payne and Jim Molan were awarded the top two spots, amid accusations that Mr Morrison and Immigration Minister Alex Hawke had interfered in the process.

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

"I understand she's disappointed about that," Mr Morrison said.

"When people are disappointed, they say things."

He said he encouraged Senator Fierravanti-Wells to take any "real complaints" she had to the State or Federal Liberal Party, which had processes in place to ensure she was heard.

But Senator Lambie said Senator Fierravanti-Wells' attack was not solely motivated by the preselection, and that she had been "seething" for some time.

"What annoys me is, I don't care if you've got personal issues with someone on the same team," she said.

"If they're the best person for the job you should put the country first and put them in the job."

She said Senator Fierravanti-Wells was a "top performer" who should have been a minister, instead of being left on the back-bench "because she wouldn't stand and nod to (Mr Morrison)".

"I don't care what anybody says, he's an absolute bully," Senator Lambie said.

Bruce Willis to quit acting after shock medical diagnosis

Bruce Willis is suffering from a medical condition that is affecting his cognitive abilities and will be taking a break from acting.

In a post on his daughter Rumer's verified Instagram account, the caption on a photo of the "Die Hard" actor read: "To Bruce's amazing supporters, as a family we wanted to share that our beloved Bruce has been experiencing some health issues and has recently been diagnosed with aphasia, which is impacting his cognitive abilities."

"As a result of this and with much consideration Bruce is stepping away from the career that has meant so much to him," the caption continued.

"This is a really challenging time for our family and we are so appreciative of your continued love, compassion and support."

Die Hard Bruce Willis

According to the Mayo Clinic, aphasia is "a condition that robs you of the ability to communicate" and can be caused by a stroke, head injury, a brain tumor or a disease.

The caption went on to read that the family is "moving through this as a strong family unit, and wanted to bring his fans in because we know how much he means to you, as you do to him."

"As Bruce always says, "Live it up" and together we plan to do just that," it concluded, along with the names of his former wife, Demi Moore, who also shared the post, their daughters Rumer, Scout and Tallulah, as well as his current wife, Emma, and their daughters Mabel and Evelyn.

What is aphasia, the condition impacting Bruce Willis' acting career?

Aphasia is a devastating condition that steals a person's ability to communicate, making it difficult to write or speak or even understand what others are saying.

People with aphasia can have problems finding words, use words out of order, speak in a choppy, halting manner or use short fragments of speech. They can even make up nonsense words and sprinkle those into their speech and writing, according to the American Speech-Language-Hearing Association.

Written communications can be full of grammatical errors and run-on sentences. A person with aphasia can also have problems with accurately copying letters and words, ASHA said.

Understanding others can also be impacted. People with aphasia may not understand spoken or written sentences or need extra time to absorb and understand what is being said or what they are reading. They may lose their ability to recognize words by sight or to sound out written words. It can be difficult for people with aphasia to follow a fast talker, or understand complex sentences and concepts, ASHA said.

How aphasia impacts a person can differ, based on the extent and site of damage in the brain. Some people only lose their abilities to find or repeat words and phrases, but are still able to speak and be understood. That's called "fluent" aphasia, as compared to "nonfluent" aphasia for those with more extensive damage.

Causes and treatment

Caused by damage to the language centres of the brain, aphasia is often the result of a traumatic brain injury, an infection or tumor in the brain, or a degenerative brain disease such as dementia, according to ASHA.

However, stroke is by far the biggest cause of the condition. Between 25 per cent and 40 per cent of stroke survivors acquire aphasia, according to the National Aphasia Association, with the elderly at highest risk.

Treatment focuses on the person's symptoms. For those with milder forms of aphasia, treatment can be restorative, using speech therapy to retrain the brain to recognize words and speak and write.

For people with degenerative conditions, where further decline is expected, health professionals often focus on providing compensatory assistance in the form of pictures and large print formatting to help the person communicate.

According to the National Aphasia Association, a complete recovery from aphasia is unlikely if the symptoms last longer than two or three months after a stroke, but hastens to add that "some people continue to improve over a period of years and even decades."

Police appeal to help find missing boy

Police in Sydney are appealing for public help to find a boy reported missing from the city's south west.

Kolio Leaupepe, aged 13, was last seen at about 2.45pm on Tuesday, March 29, catching a train to Liverpool from Regents Park Train Station.

He was reported to police and and inquiries started into his whereabouts.

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Police and his family have concerns for his welfare due to his young age.

Kolio is described as being of Pacific Islander/Maori appearance, 155cm- to 160cm tall, weighing about 60kg with a thin build and black hair cut in a mullet style.

He was last seen wearing a school uniform of a black polo shirt with a red stripe, and black shorts.

It's believed Kolio may be in the Liverpool area or Sydney CBD.

Anyone who sees Kolio or has information on his whereabouts should contact Liverpool Police or Crime Stoppers 1800 333 000.

The incredible letter Jason Warne sent big brother Shane in 1992

Friends, family, fans and superstars have farewelled Shane Warne at a special memorial service at the MCG.

Among the tributes and tales were some wonderful heartfelt stories told by those who knew him best, many never heard before.

We have compiled just a few of those below.

'Don't let the chance slip by': The letter sent from Jason to his big brother 30 years ago

"We wanted the best for each other, which is highlighted in a letter I sent Shane after his breakthrough Test here (at the MCG) in 1992 against the West Indies. Dad happened to keep that letter," Jason told the crowd.

The letter sent from Jason to Shane Warne

The letter read: "Shane, so I hear you're in love. Tell me about Simone.

"Congratulations on taking 7-21 against the Windies in Melbourne. Me and Finn were going wild telling everyone you were my brother and I can't tell you how proud of you I was when I first saw it on teletex.

"Well done, keep it up. Loads of hard work at the nets could set you up for the rest of your life. Don't let the chance slip by enjoying the limelight and resting on your laurels. That comes in 10 years time when you have rewritten all the record books.

"Now is the time to put everything, and I mean everything, into it and make it work for you. So, come on, make some more sacrifices and give people the opportunity in 20 years' time to say remember Shane Warne? We'll never get another leggie like him. He was the best spinner Australia has ever had."

'Shane stayed until the lad was starting to fall asleep'

"I remember I picked Shane up at Melbourne Airport when he arrived home after an extensive overseas Test series. He asked me, 'What's been happening, Dad?'

"As soon as I mentioned a little boy who had terminal cancer had been hanging on, hoping to meet Shane, he had me contact the father and see if it was OK for him to pop in and say hello.

"We got the OK and went directly to the boy's home. Shane stayed until the lad was starting to fall asleep which was a good two hours later. Then I drove Shane home to see his own children. This is who he was. This summed up Shane's character as a man who took great responsibility in using his profile and privilege to bring good into the lives of people less fortunate than himself.

"We are grateful the world loved our son as we did and thankfully touched so many lives in so many ways." Keith Warne, Shane's father.

RECAP: Shane Warne's memorial as it happened

Summer Warne's heartfelt tribute

'When I look back now, that summer seemed to last forever'

As Shane's children Summer, Brooke and Jackson took to the stage, the Bryan Adams hit Summer of '69 played

"That song, Summer of '69, played on Wednesday, March 2, two days before your passing. And the last time I saw my dad.

"You were coming to pick up your bag you needed for Thailand. And as I opened the door you came inside and had your car door wide open blaring that song. You started dancing and singing with true happiness all around you.

"With the smile that lit up the whole room. We both started dancing with room. We both started dancing with not a care in the world, and couldn't stop laughing with each other.

"Looking back on that memory now, and it is so incredibly special as you, as the year you were born was 1969 and a verse in that song is When I look back now, that summer seemed to last forever. And if I had a choice I'd always want to be there. Those were the best days of my life.

"You will always be with us, Dad, just not in the way we had hoped." – Summer Warne, Shane's daughter

Cheers, little man

"Like most of you here tonight, I too have memories of Shane. When I was eight years old I was at the MCG test with my grandfather. I was sitting in the members' section where the Aussies would run down the race.

"We were batting at the time and we had a rare batting collapse. When it was Warnie's turn to bat, I remember him walking past me.

"His batting stint, though, was quicker than the walkout to the ground.

"But what happened when he got back was just amazing. It was dead silent, as Warnie walked up the ramp. I stood up on my chair and within earshot I said, 'Well batted, Warnie.'

"The crowd giggled. Warnie came up to me, rubbed my hair and said 'Cheers, little man.'

"Ten minutes later, Warnie came back down and asked me how would I like to spend the rest of the day with the team. Of course I said yes. That was an experience that I'll never forget." Wurundjeri man Alex Kerr during the Welcome to Country

Allan Border, Mark Taylor, Merv Hughes and Nasser Hussain

In one word ….

"Bogan. Deadset bogan. King. Genius. Entertainer." – Merv Hughes, Brian Lara. Nasser Hussain and Mark Taylor asked to describe Shane Warne in one word.

Buying cigarettes so you could capitalise at Duty Free

"How do I encapsulate 35 years of loyal friendship? So many big moments on the field but the little moments off the field I'll cherish most of all.

"Sitting on the team bus singing Aussie Crawl or Springsteen, telling you to slow down in our cars, buying cigarettes so you could capitalise at Duty Free, our love and passion for the St Kilda Footy Club and the thousands of text messages we exchanged.

"So many fond memories, mate. My heart is broken. My soul is crushed. I miss you, mate. And I love you." long-time friend Darren Berry.

And Shane being Shane, he pulled out two passports

"I remember the day clearly and you need him around in those moments. A few emotional moments that go with it.

"But I remember one particular moment that he came in, gave us a hug, because he didn't mind a bit of affection. He liked a hug every now and then. And he whispered 'Mate, it's not too late'. And Shane being Shane, he pulled out two passports.

"He managed to get his hands on my passport as a bit of a gag. But he was like that. He always had that, just that willingness and want to see people happy and he brightened up the mood. – Former St Kilda great Aaron Hamill, who had Warne as joint-Best Man at his wedding.

Tears, stories and laughs flow for Warnie as Australia says farewell

"You will always be with us, Dad, just not in the way we had hoped."

Summer Warne fought back the tears as she struggled to put into words how much she would miss her dad, Shane.

Sporting legends, musical superstars, Hollywood icons had all paid tribute to Warne at an emotion-filled, star-studded MCG State Memorial Service.

But it was his children – Summer, Jackson and Brooke – who reminded everyone that above everything else, Shane Warne was their dad.

'The boy from Black Rock who dreamed of being a footballer'

Hours earlier, the MCG was eerily silent, waiting for Warne to become the central focus before an adulating crowd for one, final time.

But where once there were teammates waiting to snare a catch off a delivery, there were instead rows of empty white chairs waiting to be filled by those wanting to say goodbye.

Slowly, the ground filled up with the young and old, families and fans.

And the laughs and stories soon flowed, as well, of course, as the tears. Plenty of tears.

Warne died at just 52 years of age, found in a Thai villa earlier this month after suffering a suspected heart attack.

The memorial paid tribute to his achievements on the pitch, but also recognised a doting father and beloved son, filled with stories of his charitable and larrikin acts away from the glare of fame.

The MCG was, of course, the scene of Warne's 700th Test wicket.

But the stadium is also home to Melbourne's favourite son's other great love, Aussie Rules.

"The boy from Black Rock who dreamed of being a footballer on this ground adopted the number of his hero, Dermott Brereton," said host Eddie McGuire.

"He was even named in the footy record as Trevor Warne in his one and only reserve grade appearance, an inadvertent nod to Trevor Barker."

The stars came out, led by friend Eric Bana, who described "kids in dusty laneways and backyards who wanted to be just like Warnie".

Warne's dad, Keith, fought back the tears as he tried to come to terms with "a future without Shane".

Keith Warne on his son's 'greatest achievement'

Keith Warne paid tribute to his son's sporting achievements but said they were ultimately secondary in his life.

"What Shane achieved was unimaginable but for his mother and I, it was the things Shane did and the things he did away from the cricket field we will hold up as his finest achievements," he said.

"He was a doting father who loved and adored his children. He was a loving and caring son and brother."

A photo of Shane Warne is seen on the big screen during the state memorial service.

Keith Warne's voice eventually broke.

"Shane said of himself, 'I smoked, I drank, and I played a little cricket'.

"Mate, your mother and I can't imagine a life without you. You have been taken too soon and our hearts are broken."

His little brother, Jason, described how touched the family had been by the tributes that had flowed in from across the globe.

"The impact my brother had during his remarkable life, it's always been really difficult to comprehend," he said.

"Shane has connected with us all in many ways.

"Whether it being entertained by his amazing exploits on the cricket ground, through the time he spent and putting a smile on the face of many children, or the times he's met you in person, made you feel special.

"The tributes that have flowed over the past few weeks have been extremely heartfelt."

READ MORE: The incredible letter sent from Jason Warne to his big brother Shane in 1992

Elton John dedicates iconic song to Shane Warne

Messages from Kylie Minogue and Hugh Jackman followed, as did a rendition of "Don't Let The Sun Go Down On Me" by Sir Elton John, who described Warne's legacy as one that will "live on through future generations".

Cricket superstars Merv Hughes, Brian Lara, Nasser Hussain and Mark Taylor were asked to describe Warne in one word.

"Bogan. Deadset bogan. King. Genius. Entertainer."

When Border knew Warne was special

His close friends, those who had stood by him in tough times, as well as the good, offered another insight into Warne.

"How do I encapsulate 35 years of loyal friendship?" long-time friend Darren Berry said.

"So many big moments on the field but the little moments off the field I'll cherish most of all.

"Sitting on the team bus singing Aussie Crawl or Springsteen, telling you to slow down in our cars, buying cigarettes so you could capitalise at duty free, our love and passion for the St Kilda footy club and the thousands of text messages we exchanged."

You can donate to the Shane Warne Memorial Fund at florey.edu.au/ShaneWarne

Former St Kilda great Aaron Hamill, who had Warne as joint best man at his wedding, shared a story about how he tried to snag a walk-on part on his favourite show, Peaky Blinders.

"He said, 'I've got this great idea', as he always did," Hamill recalled.

"He said, 'I've sent off an email to the producers of Peaky Blinders.

"'I'd love to be part of your show. I'm a keen viewer.'

"So he did all that and he rang back and said, 'I got the email back'.

"I said 'Please, read it out to me'.

"'Dear Shane, thanks very much. We love your enthusiasm, but unfortunately porcelain veneers weren't around in Birmingham in 1931.'"

Chris Martin sings 'Yellow' for Shane Warne

Coldplay frontman Chris Martin provided another touching moment on the big screens, performing "Yellow", from somewhere in Central America while on tour with the band, with a special tweak to the final chorus.

"It's true. We are going to miss you," Martin sang.

New Zealand rocker Jon Stevens then took to the stage to perform some of Warne's favourite songs, starting with "Never Tear Us Apart" by INXS.

Later, Robbie Williams and Ed Sheeran performed too.

Jackson Warne: 'You were the best Dad'

'You saved me, Dad'

But it was his children, Summer, Jackson and Brooke who captured a desperately sad, but also moving and ultimately celebratory night as the memorial concluded.

"When I was struggling, and I didn't know how to go on with life because I was dealing with my own demons, you showed me how I could fall in love with life again," Summer said.

"You told me that I could either live with these demons or fight with them and come out stronger at the end.

"You saved me, Dad. You truly did."

For Jackson, it was the everyday, simple moments he said he would miss most.

"You were the best Dad anyone could have asked for and you were my best friend," he said.

"Time with you went way too fast.

"It feels just like yesterday that we were looking at each other's cards playing poker, eating pizza while watching the Saints.

"I'm never forget how much fun we had doing simple things, grocery shopping, watching movies or going for walks during lockdown.

"We didn't have to do much to be happy.

"Life was so easy and peaceful with you in it."

Brooke admitted she still can't believe her father is gone.

"I will miss seeing how excited you get over our achievements and your achievements," she said.

"I have to come to the fact that my Dad will never get to see me grow up or Jackson or Summer or see us get married one day, have kids and get the promotion I was going for.

"I could go on forever about what we're going to miss out on, but nothing would be more upsetting about how much I already miss you, Dad.

"But what makes me the saddest is I will never get to wrap my arms around you and give you the biggest hug and rest my chin on your chest.

"Dad was our shining star in life and now he's shining down on all of us."

Brooke Warne, Jackson Warne and Summer Warne unveil the 'Shane Warne Stand' during the state memorial service.

But, fittingly, there was celebration too.

The evening finished with a trumpeter's rousing rendition of "When The Saints Go Marching In", leading to huge applause.

And there were more smiles as the spotlight shone on Brooke, Summer and Jackson as they unveiled they newly-renamed Shane Warne Stand from high in the seats as "My Way" blared around the ground, finally drowned out by familiar chants of "Warnie" echoing around the MCG.