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OPINION: The Russians are not winning the war in Ukraine and they may even be losing.

Neither option is good for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which he surely knows well, both as a veteran of the Cold War and as a student of Russian history.

The last time the Russians lost a war was in Afghanistan during the 1980s.

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After a quick victory when they invaded the nation in 1979, the Soviets faced a countrywide insurgency that wasn't particularly effective at first because the Russians completely controlled the airspace.

In an echo of some of the dilemmas that President Joe Biden faces today, the Reagan administration feared a possible nuclear confrontation with the Soviets and was initially reluctant to arm the Afghan rebels with anti-aircraft weapons.

By 1986, reluctance among Mr Reagan's officials to arm the Afghan resistance with weapons that might actually help them to win the war had evaporated.

The CIA armed the Afghans with Stinger anti-aircraft missiles that ended the Soviets' air superiority and greatly increased the Afghans' capacity to inflict significant losses on Soviet forces on the battlefield.

Realising they were losing the war, the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in February 1989 and installed a puppet Afghan communist government that collapsed three years later, after the Soviet Union had itself expired.

The official Soviet death toll during the Afghan War, which lasted more than nine years, was around 15,000 soldiers.

It is therefore quite telling that the Russians may have already lost as many 15,000 soldiers in just one month in Ukraine, according to estimates given to CNN by senior NATO officials.

When the Soviet military departed Afghanistan in 1989, the countries and populations of Eastern Europe – then under varying degrees of the Soviet yoke – took note.

If the feared Soviet army couldn't win a war on its own borders against Afghan guerrilla forces, what did it say about its ability to control the fates of East Germany, Hungary and Poland?

The failure of the Soviet war in Afghanistan hammered a giant nail into the coffin of the Soviet empire.

It's not an accident the Berlin Wall fell just months later, opening up East Germany to the West.

This was arguably the hinge event in Mr Putin's adult life.

He was then a KGB officer stationed in East Germany.

When Mr Putin sought instructions about what he should do from a Soviet military unit, he was told, "Moscow is silent."

Since then, Mr Putin has been trying to reverse Moscow's silence with the goal of restoring as many elements of Russia's former glory as he can.

Just as the Soviets were undone by their loss of the Afghan War, so too was the Romanov monarchy undone by its military defeats in the early 20th century, which ended the Romanovs three-century reign over Russia.

Under the feckless leadership of Tsar Nicholas II, Russia's disastrous performance in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905 was the first time in the modern era that an Asian power had defeated a European one.

The loss of the Russo-Japanese war was soon compounded by Russia's defeats during World War I.

Those losses, along with other factors, led to the overthrow of Nicholas II in 1917 and the subsequent rise of the Soviets.

By contrast, Joseph Stalin emerged victorious from World War II – albeit at a tremendous cost of an estimated more than 25 million Russian dead.

Known in Russia as "the Great Patriotic War," this victory helped allow Stalin to continue being, well, Stalin – a murderous dictator.

An edition of The Economist earlier this month declared "The Stalinisation of Russia," which is surely Mr Putin's goal.

But it's hard to be neo-Stalinist if you are a loser – and losing Ukraine isn't out of the question for Mr Putin.

Peter Bergen is CNN's national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. His forthcoming paperback is The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World. The views expressed in this commentary are his own.

Florida's got yet another spring breaker in town: Scot, a massive great white shark, has been recorded swimming off the Gulf Coast.

Scot, an adult male, measures just over three metres long and weighs 720 kilograms, according to OCEARCH, the non-profit marine group that spotted the big fish on Thursday.

Scot is the 74th great white shark tagged and released by the group in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, OCEARCH said.

LIVE UPDATES: Russia 'wants Korea-style split in Ukraine'

They fit each animal with an electronic tracker that pings whenever it breaks the ocean surface.

The tracker's records show Scot is a dedicated traveler. He was first tagged in September of 2021 in Nova Scotia – where he was named in honour of the "welcoming and ocean first dedicated people" there by OCEARCH's partners at Sea World. Scot then traveled a total of 6,292 kilometres down the East Coast in just 119 days.

He has been relaxing around the Florida Keys and Gulf Coast since at least Valentine's Day, according to OCEARCH data.

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Sharks typically move towards the shore during the spring and summer, making April and October the months of highest shark activity.

The waters around Florida are home to more than 13 shark species, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.

Although iconic films like "Jaws" have portrayed sharks as dangerous predators, attacks in Florida are actually very rare, the commission said. Humans are 30 times more likely to be struck by lightning in the state than to be bitten by a shark, and fewer than 10 people die from shark attacks each year, they said.

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Both OCEARCH and the commission emphasise the great white shark's crucial role as the apex predator in its ecosystem.

"Great white sharks are central to the functioning of ecosystems and the maintenance of biodiversity," says OCEARCH.

They are classified as a vulnerable population by the World Wildlife Fund, just one step away from endangered.

An ice shelf about the size of Rome in East Antarctica has completely collapsed amid record breaking temperatures.

Scientists confirmed the Conger ice shelf, which had an approximate surface area of 1200 square kilometres, collapsed suddenly around March 15.

A compilation of Landsat and Modis satellite vision shows the massive ice shelf fragmenting, in what is being described as an "unpredictable collapse".

READ MORE: 'Dangerous flash flooding' warning as rain bomb unleashes

https://twitter.com/CapComCatWalk/status/1507137389432434739

The collapse has shocked scientists, as East Antarctica is one of the highest, coldest and driest places in the world.

However, temperatures have soared over recent weeks.

The nearby Concordia station recorded a record temperature of -11.8C on March 18 — more than 40C warmer than seasonal norms.

READ MORE: Putin's dramatic 'North Korea' plan for Ukraine

Dr Catherine Colello Walker, an earth and planetary scientist at NASA and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said the collapse could herald further ice loss in the frozen continent.

"Although the Conger ice shelf was relatively small, it is one of the most significant collapse events anywhere in Antarctica since the early 2000s when the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated," Dr Walker said.

"It is most likely, a sign of what might be coming."

Why ice shelves are crucial to frozen continent

Ice shelves act like "corks" the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution explained in the a statement.

"(They're) holding back the rest of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from flowing into the ocean," it said.

"They ring the continent's coast and serve as buttresses, as a buffer between the (warming) ocean and the massive interior ice sheet.

"This is the first time an ice shelf collapse has ever occurred, observable to humans, in East Antarctica, and it was completely unpredicted."

The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said the loss of East Antarctica could raise sea levels by five times more than West Antarctica.

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"If the entirety of East Antarctica slid into the ocean, for example, it would raise sea levels globally by ~160 feet," it said.

"That won't happen for centuries, but it's processes like this one that will eventually allow that to happen".

The Conger ice shelf collapse comes amid predictions the tongue of the Thwaites glacier in West Antarctica could shatter within the next three to five years.

The Thwaites glacier, which equals the size of Florida or Great Britain, is known as the "Doomsday glacier," as its demise could lead to irreversible changes throughout the planet.

A massive cash splash is expected from tomorrow's Federal Budget, with the government hoping to score good reviews from Australians by relieving cost of living pressures.

A cut to the fuel excise has been repeatedly suggested but not yet confirmed, with drivers feeling the pinch at the pump.

Fuel prices remain sky-high due to international factors stemming from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with a cut to the excise one of the few measures available to the government that would provide relief.

LIVE UPDATES: Zelenskyy accuses Russia of snatching 2000 children from city

However, not all are in favour of the move, with the NRMA's Peter Khoury recently suggesting any excise cut would be swallowed up by rising prices.

Money raised from the excise goes toward road projects and maintenance.

Nonetheless, it's expected the government will announce a reduction for the next six months.

And Labor is unlikely to oppose it.

"There's a reasonable chance that there'll be a petrol excise cut of course, and we're unlikely to stand in the way of that," Shadow Treasurer Jim Chalmers told Today.

READ MORE: Warning of 'dangerous flash flooding' as rain bomb unleashes

Young Australians are also set to be targeted, with the government expanding the New Home Guarantee scheme to 50,000 places.

Under the scheme, first home buyers can put up a deposit of as little as five per cent – two per cent for single parents – without having to pay lenders mortgage insurance.

Instead, the National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation guarantees part of the loan – up to 15 per cent of the property's maximum value.

READ MORE: Putin 'seeks Korea scenario for Ukraine'

Currently the average house price in Australia's capital cities is over $1 million, nationwide.

Infrastructure spending is also expected to be a major focus, with the government announcing this morning $17.9 billion will be included in the Budget for projects around the country.

This will include a $1 billion fast rail link between Newcastle and Sydney, new rail connections for south-east Queensland, and $3.1 billion for a major freight hub in Victoria.

Treasurer Josh Frydenbeg will hand down the Budget tomorrow.

Ukraine's military intelligence head says Russian President Vladimir Putin could be looking to carve Ukraine in two – like North and South Korea.

Brigadier-General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's Defence Intelligence Agency, said Russia's operations around Kyiv had failed and it was now impossible for the Russian army to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Mr Putin's war was now focused on the south and the east of the country, he said.

"There is reason to believe that he is considering a 'Korean' scenario for Ukraine. That is, [Russian forces] will try to impose a dividing line between the unoccupied and occupied regions of our country. In fact, it is an attempt to create North and South Korea in Ukraine."

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Brigadier-General Budanov said Russia remained intent on establishing a land corridor from the Russian border to Crimea, and said he expected to see an attempt to unite Russian-occupied territories into a single entity.

"We are already seeing attempts to create "parallel" authorities in the occupied territories and to force people to give up [the Ukrainian] currency," Brigadier-General Budanov said, adding that he expected Ukrainians to resist Russia's political efforts.

Australian pair join relief effort

Two Australian men have joined the humanitarian relief effort in Ukraine.

Daniel Russell and Roger Scott have been driving a minibus from Poland to Ukraine full of supplies before returning to Warsaw with refugees in their vehicle.

They helped evacuate a group of 50 people from the besieged city of Mariupol on Sunday.

Zelenskyy wants more courage from West

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused the West of lacking courage as his country fights to stave off Russia's invasion, making an exasperated plea for fighter jets and tanks to sustain a defence in a conflict that has ground into a war of attrition.

Speaking after US President Joe Biden said in a lacerating speech that Russian President Vladimir Putin could not stay in power — words the White House immediately sought to downplay — Mr Zelenskyy lashed out at the West's "ping-pong about who and how should hand over jets" and other weapons while Russian missile attacks kill and trap civilians.

"I've talked to the defenders of Mariupol today. I'm in constant contact with them. Their determination, heroism and firmness are astonishing," Mr Zelenskyy said in a video address early Sunday, referring to the besieged southern city that has suffered some of the war's greatest deprivations and horrors. 

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"If only those who have been thinking for 31 days on how to hand over dozens of jets and tanks had 1 per cent of their courage."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, reaching its 32nd day on Sunday, has stalled in many areas, its aim to quickly encircle the capital, Kyiv, and force its surrender faltering in the face of staunch Ukrainian resistance — bolstered by weapons from the US and other Western allies.

Britain's Defence Ministry said Russia's troops looked to be trying to encircle Ukrainian forces directly facing the two separatist-held areas in the country's east. That would cut the bulk of Ukraine's military off from the rest of the country.

Moscow claims its focus is on wresting from Ukraine the entirety of the eastern Donbas region, which has been partially controlled by Russia-backed separatists since 2014. A high-ranking Russian military official said Friday that troops were being redirected to the east from other parts of the country.

The leader of one of the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas said on Sunday that he wants to hold a vote on joining Russia, words that could indicate a shift in Russia's position. 

Leonid Pasechnik, the head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic, said it plans to hold a referendum on becoming part of Russia "in the nearest time".

Russia has supported the separatist rebels in Luhansk and neighbouring Donetsk since an insurgency erupted there in 2014, shortly after Moscow annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine.

 In talks with Ukraine so far, Moscow has urged Kyiv to acknowledge the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Ukraine says that to defeat Russia, it needs fighter jets and not just the missiles and other defensive weapons supplied so far by the West.

A proposal to transfer Polish planes to Ukraine via the United States was scrapped amid NATO concerns about getting drawn into a military conflict with Russia.

In his pointed remarks, Mr Zelenskyy accused Western governments of being "afraid to prevent this tragedy. Afraid to simply make a decision."

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"So, who is in charge of the Euro-Atlantic community? Is it still Moscow, thanks to its scare tactics?" he said. 

"Our partners must step up their aid to Ukraine."

His plea was echoed by a priest in the western city of Lviv, which was struck by rockets on Saturday. The aerial assault illustrated that Moscow, despite recent assertions that it intends to shift the war eastward, is willing to strike anywhere in Ukraine.

"When diplomacy doesn't work, we need military support," said the Reverend Yuri Vaskiv, who on Sunday reported fewer parishioners than usual in the pews of his Greek Catholic church, likely because of their fear.

"This evil is from him, and we must stop it," he said, Referring to Mr Putin.

Russian Defence Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov confirmed that Russian forces used air-launched cruise missiles to hit a fuel depot and a defence plant in Lyiv. 

He said another strike with sea-launched missiles destroyed a depot with air defence missiles in Plesetske, just west of Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

The strikes came as Mr Biden wrapped up a visit to Poland, where he met Ukraine's Foreign and Defence ministers, visited US troops and saw refugees from the war. 

US rules out regime change in Russia

Before leaving, he delivered a forceful and highly personal condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power," Mr Biden said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the remark, saying "It's not up to the president of the US and not up to the Americans to decide who will remain in power in Russia."

US officials quickly stressed that Mr Biden was not calling for an immediate change in government in Moscow.

"We do not have a strategy of regime change in Russia, or anywhere else, for that matter," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a visit to Israel. 

"In this case, as in any case, it's up to the people of the country in question. It's up to the Russian people."

A chemical smell still lingered in the air on Sunday as firefighters in Lviv, about 72km from the Polish border, trained hoses on flames and black smoke pouring from oil storage tanks hit in the Russian attack.

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A security guard at the site, Yaroslav Prokopiv, said he saw three rockets strike and destroy two oil tanks but no one was hurt.

"The third strike threw me to the ground," he said.

Russia's back-to-back airstrikes shook the city that has become a haven for an estimated 200,000 people who have fled bombarded towns and cities. 

Lviv, which has largely been spared bombardment, also has been a way-station for most of the 3.8 million refugees who have left Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24.

In the dim, crowded bomb shelter under an apartment block a short way from the first blast site, Olana Ukrainets, a 34-year-old IT professional, said she couldn't believe she had to hide again after fleeing from the north-eastern city of Kharkiv, one of the most bombarded cities of the war.

"We were on one side of the street and saw it on the other side," she said. 

"We saw fire. I said to my friend, 'What's this?' Then we heard the sound of an explosion and glass breaking."

In his video address, Mr Zelenskyy angrily warned Moscow that it was sowing a deep hatred for Russia among the Ukrainian people, as constant artillery barrages and aerial bombings are reducing cities to rubble, killing civilians and driving others into shelters, leaving them to scrounge for food and water to survive.

"You are doing everything so that our people themselves leave the Russian language, because the Russian language will now be associated only with you, with your explosions and murders, your crimes," Mr Zelenskyy said.

A nuclear research facility in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, again came under fire on Saturday. Ukraine's nuclear watchdog said that because of ongoing hostilities it was impossible to assess the extent of the damage.

Kharkiv, which is close to the Russian border, has been besieged by Russian forces since the start of the invasion and has come under repeated shelling that has hit residential buildings and critical infrastructure.

Ukrainian authorities have previously reported that Russian shelling had damaged buildings at the facility, but there had been no release of radiation. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said the nuclear material in the facility is always subcritical and the inventory of radioactive material is very low, reducing the risks of radiation release.

Along with the 3.8 million people who have fled Ukraine, the invasion has driven more than 10 million people from their homes, almost a quarter of Ukraine's population. Thousands of civilians are believed to have

Shanghai has said it will lock down each half of the city by turns for mass COVID-19 testing starting on Monday amid surging infections.

The eastern half of the city – comprising around 11 million residents – will go into lockdown at the start of the week for four days, while the 14 million remaining people will start lockdown from Friday, the Shanghai government said on Sunday night.

Everyone is required to participate in the citywide COVID-19 screening to maintain a "green" health code status that would allow them to access grocery stores and public areas.

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During their respective lockdowns, people will be banned from going out, and all non-essential workers must work from home. Public transport including buses, subways, ferries, and taxis in lockdown areas will also be suspended.

Shanghai registered 2,678 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday alone, accounting for nearly half of all new cases recorded in China that day, according to the country's National Health Commission.

China's inability to bring its latest outbreak under control so far has prompted online rumblings from frustrated citizens, as questions about Beijing's zero-COVID-19 strategy break into the mainstream for the first time.

READ MORE: Ukrainian President demands more 'courage' from the West

In Shanghai – a city with some of the best infrastructure in the country – social media complaints suggest that systems intended to ensure residents have what they need are failing, as lockdowns are extended without notice.

"How can I buy groceries? … I can't get medicine for my kids …how can we order this online when we can't even get a hospital appointment?" wrote one social media user, who said their Shanghai neighbourhood had been closed for 15 days.

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Officials have said they are making "every effort" to ensure supplies by supporting residents to use online platforms to get what they needed or arranging bulk purchasing and distribution.

In coping with the surging cases across the city, the Shanghai government has distributed rapid antigen test kits to households in low-risk areas, testing more than 14 million people as of Sunday.

In a bid to relieve the pressure on hospitals, several indoor stadiums and exhibition centres in the city have been converted into centralised quarantine facilities for COVID-19 patients who are asymptomatic or present mild symptoms.

Despite sealing off more residential compounds after COVID-19 cases were detected, Shanghai was reluctant to implement a citywide lockdown before the Sunday announcement.

"If Shanghai came to a complete halt, there would be many international cargo ships floating in the East China Sea," said Wu Fan, a medical expert with the city's pandemic task force on Saturday.

China is still reluctant to impose full, citywide lockdowns despite rising case numbers — the highest since the pandemic started.