Tag Archives: oceania

Hike or hold: What’s going to happen to interest rates in 2026?

Twelve months ago, mortgage holders were looking forward to a new year that promised to be full of interest rate cuts.

The outlook now, though, is considerably bleaker.

This is what we know about what interest rates might do in 2026.

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Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock during a press conference at the Reserve Bank, after interest rates were left on hold. Tuesdsay, December 9.

Will interest rates rise in 2026?

It's possible, and some banks think we'll get a hike as soon as February 3.

"With what we know at the moment, I don't think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon for the foreseeable future," RBA Governor Michele Bullock said after the central bank's final rates decision of the year on December 9

"The question is, is it just an extended hold from here, or is it a possibility of a rate rise? 

"They are the two things the board will be looking closely at coming into the new year."

Those hawkish comments have led a range of economists to tip a rate hike in 2026.

Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Belinda Allen says the first meeting of the year will be a live one, and both CBA and NAB are predicting a 25-basis-point increase on the first meeting of the year.

NAB has forecast even more pain, pencilling in a further cut in May.

The market is more pessimistic. 

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The market has been pricing in around a 27 per cent chance of a hike in February (that figure has been both slightly higher and lower throughout late December, but was at zero at the start of the month), and an end-year cash rate of about 4 per cent.

Not everyone agrees with that, though.

The other half of the big four banks, Westpac and ANZ, are predicting a year of holds, as are some economists.

"We expect to see the cash rate remain at 3.6 per cent in 2026, with the swing back to rate hikes more a story for 2027," AMP chief economist Shane Oliver wrote. 

"But we concede that the risks look like they are now a bit more to the upside on rates in 2026. 

"However, our assessment is that the swing in the money market from expecting 2 or 3 more cuts after the August RBA meeting to now expecting nearly two hikes (in 2026) is premature and a bit too extreme."

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A for sale sign on a home.

Why aren't interest rates expected to come down?

Casual observers – particularly those with a mortgage – might be wondering why we're suddenly talking about the prospect of rate hikes, not cuts.

After all, it was only a few months ago that economists were talking about the cash rate settling around 3.1 per cent.

The reason for the turnaround is an unexpected surge in inflation.

Having fallen back into the central bank's target band of 2-3 per cent, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 3.2 per cent in the September quarter and again to 3.8 per cent in October, with underlying inflation not too far behind.

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The data-driven RBA will get two new batches of inflation figures before its February decision – for November on January 7 and December on the 28th.

If inflation cools off, so too will the chance of a rate hike. 

But if it comes in hot once again, then mortgage holders will have every right to feel nervous about the first rates decision of the year.

"If trimmed mean inflation in the December quarter does not fall back as we expect (and comes in around 0.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter or more), then a hike as early as February is possible," Oliver said.

"December quarter CPI inflation is the key to what happens early next year on rates."

The information provided on this website is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The information has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information on this website you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

Monsoonal deluge continues to batter northern Queensland

North Queensland remains on alert as a deadly weather system continues to lash the region, causing dangerous flooding.

Heavy rain continues to batter the north-east tropical coast, where a severe weather warning remains in place today.

Coastal areas between Townsville and Bowen are expected to be lashed with 100 to 200mm rain today, with higher totals possible on the coastal fringe, all the way up to Cairns.

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Flood warning remain in place for rivers and creeks across Queensland's north-east.

The downpour could trigger further flash flooding, according to the Bureau of Meteorology, where waterways are already swollen as a result of heavy rainfall in recent days.

"We are still seeing heavy rain across northern Queensland," Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Jonathan How said. 

"We're reminding Queenslanders that even though the rain is starting to ease from later today and into tomorrow, these heavy showers could still bring flash flooding and still cause river rises."

The deluge is expected to ease in the afternoon before picking back up this evening along the coast between Rollingstone and Ayr.

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Queensland floods

Flood warnings are also current for the Mulgrave, Russell, Tully, Murray, Cloncurry and Georgina catchments.

Water levels along the Leichhardt River peaked near 16.25 metres at Lorraine on Tuesday, causing major flooding.

The main flood peak is now approaching Floraville, where river levels are expected to continue rising in the coming days. 

Moderate flooding is likely at Normanton, in the state's north-west, where river levels at Glenore Weir are just above 12 metres and slowly rising.

The body of a man in his 70s was found in a car submerged in floodwaters in Normanton on December 30.

Thankfully, a weather warning for heavy rain across the north-west of the state, including the Northern Goldfields, Upper Flinders, North West and Central West districts, has been cancelled after conditions eased.

Residents in Winton and Corfield could be hit by severe thunderstorms in the coming hours.

Record rainfalls across North Tropical Coast

Rainfall topped a metre at three locations on Queensland's North Tropical coast yesterday.

Bingil Bay was hit with a deluge of 1114.2mm over the last four days, while South Mission Beach and Cowley beach each received nearly 1050mm in the same period.

By comparison, Brisbane's annual rainfall is just over a metre, according to WeatherZone.

Parts of Queensland's North Tropical Coast could see a further 400 to 800mm by the start of next week, which could potentially take totals from this event close to two metres of rainfall.

Outback communities have been left isolated by the monsoonal floods.

Record-breaking rain also fell inland in Queensland's Gulf Country, North West, and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders forecast districts

Major flooding is expected to continue along many waterways in the north, including the Herbert, Bohle, Flinders, Nicholson, Leichhardt, Norman, Gilbert, Western and Diamantina Rivers.

Premier David Crisafulli announced disaster relief for the affected areas earlier this week.

People are urged to stay up to date on the BoM website and the Queensland government's disaster website.

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Teen charged after firecracker sparks serious bushfire during NYE celebrations

A teenager has been charged after a firecracker was launched into Perth bushland during New Year's Eve celebrations, sparking a dangerous blaze that is threatening lives and homes and cut off power to thousands.

Police allege a 19-year-old man threw a firecracker into dry grass in bushland on Temby Avenue, KalamUnda, in the Perth Hills about 25km east of the CBD, about 12.20am.

The firecracker sparked a bushfire almost immediately, which quickly intensified.

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The blaze was sparked on Temby Avenue around 12.20am and quickly spread through grassland.

A waterbombing helicopter and multiple fire crews were called to try to extinguish the inferno, but it continue to burn into the morning.

An emergency warning was triggered just before 8.30am, urging residents in Maida Vale, Forrestfield and Kalamunda to leave immediately as the blaze spread across 25 hectares of land.

Residents were warned that their lives and properties were in danger.

The warning was downgraded to a Watch and Act just before 12.30pm.

Fire activity has decreased, but it still poses a danger to lives and homes in certain areas due to changing conditions, DFES warned.

Residents in parts of Maida Vale, Kalamunda, Forrestfield and Lesmurdie are urged to stay alert and monitor their surroundings for changing conditions.

That includes people in the area bound by Norwood Road, Taylor Road, Colac Place, Bird Road, Alpine Road, Wandoo Road, Holmes Road, Lewis Road and Anderson Road.

Locals bound by Hawtin Road, Norwood Road, Welshpool Road East, Lesmurdie Road, Kalamunda Road and Canning Road should also be vigilant.

Doors and windows should be closed to keep smoke out and residents should look out for spot fires on their properties.

Residents in parts of Forrestfield and Maida Vale, namely those bound by the Roe Highway, Quenington Court, Hawtin Road and Hartfield Road are no longer threatened by the fire.

The bushfire is currently moving slowly in a westerly direction. It is contained but not controlled.

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More than 2000 homes lost power and scores were endangered by the fierce inferno.

An evacuation centre has been set up at the High Wycombe Community and Recreation Centre, 200 Newburn Road, High Wycombe.

A community meeting will be held there at 1pm today.

Several roads in the area have been closed, including Temby Road, Holmes Road at Wandoo Road, Norwood Road at Holmes Road and Hawkin Road at Maud Road.

More than 2000 homes lost power overnight as a result of the blaze.

Power was restored to almost all impacted properties by 9am, according to Western Power.

The 19-year-old man, from Kalamunda has been charged with a breach of duty (of care).

He is expected to appear before Perth Magistrates Court today.

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