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A mere matter of weeks ago, experts were expecting an early Christmas present from the RBA.

Now, it's just as likely that Michele Bullock and her board instead decide to play the part of the Grinch.

Following yesterday's widely expected hold, economists are uncertain about whether the cash rate will deviate from its current level of 3.60 per cent before the end of the year – something that had recently seemed likely.

READ MORE: 'Not confident': RBA's bleak warning to millions of Aussies

Today, Commonwealth Bank pushed back its forecast for a cut.

Having previously tipped more relief to be handed down in November, it's now not expecting any change until next February.

"It's no surprise CBA has run the ruler through the chance of another rate cut this year," Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said.

"While borrowers are hoping for more relief, the battle with inflation has not been a straightforward one, which means the cash rate could stay on hold for the rest of this year."

Fellow big four bank NAB is even more pessimistic than CBA, not predicting another cut until May.

RBA Governor Bullock was noticeably guarded about the future of interest rates in her post-decision press conference yesterday, a far cry from August, when she signalled further monetary policy relief was likely.

On the back of that caution, CBA isn't the only institution where economists have pared back their expectations for a cut before Christmas.

Late yesterday, the market was pricing in a 42 per cent chance of a cut in November, down from 58 per cent the day before.

That figure sat at 95 per cent less than two weeks ago.

"Both the policy statement and Governor Bullock's comments at the press conference were cautious and non-committal about the outlook, keeping all options open," Westpac senior economist Mantas Vanagas said.

"Following the RBA decision, markets now assign only a 50 per cent probability to a cash rate cut this year, down from roughly two-thirds prior to the meeting."

READ MORE: US government goes into shutdown after deadlock in Congress

The Reserve Bank's monetary policy board have two more opportunities to hand down a pre-Christmas cut: Melbourne Cup day on November 4, then its final meeting of the year, which finishes on December 9.

Even if the cash rate remains at 3.60 per cent after those two decisions, many economists do still expect a further cut sometime next year.

"This was a remarkably non-committal set of communications, making no mention of the previous forecasts being predicated on further cuts to the cash rate," Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis, who is still forecasting a cut next month, said. 

"The governor mentioned that monetary policy is 'still a bit restrictive' in the media conference but there was no clear mention of the stance of policy in the post-meeting statement…

"The monetary policy board is clearly trying to give itself maximum optionality for the next few meetings. 

"This means that our current base case of a cash rate cut in November is far from assured, though neither is it off the table."

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With last week's unexpectedly hot monthly inflation data suggesting prices could be starting to rise far quicker than expected, the next instalment of more reliable quarterly data – due late this month – will be crucial in determining whether the Reserve Bank hands down a pre-Christmas cut.

"Our forecasts are unchanged for a 'shallow' RBA easing cycle back to a more neutral rate around 3.25 per cent, but the timing of the next cut is under question," Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson said. 

"The full quarterly CPI numbers out on October 29 will be the key event to verify this timing.

"So, barring a significant jump in core inflation, the easing cycle should continue. 

"But it's a complex environment. The RBA governor did warn in her press conference that 'inflation may be persistent'. Time will tell."

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However, Ellis said there may be a welcome silver lining if Bullock and her monetary policy board do keep interest rates on hold for the rest of the year.

"The longer the (board) delays further cuts, the more likely it is that it will end up cutting by more than it currently envisages."

The information provided on this website is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The information has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information on this website you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.

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A plywood plant closure follows the paper mill shutdown that cut 130 roles in June.

The US government has been shut down for the first time in more than six years after Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on federal funding by midnight on October 1 (2pm today AEST).

Democrats voted down a Republican bill to grant temporary funding earlier this morning, which would have prevented the shutdown, as both parties remain in a deadlock about health benefits.

Federal agencies were ordered to make preparations hours before the deadline, as hundreds and thousands of federal workers will have their pay impacted.

Here is exactly what that means. 

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What is a government shutdown?

Federal agencies across the country will be shuttered, with non-essential workers, like park rangers, put on leave without pay.

Essential federal workers, like the military, immigration and airport security, will continue to work but will not get paid until after the shutdown.

About 750,000 workers will be furloughed each day in the shutdown, with the total daily cost of their compensation reaching $US400 million ($600 million), according to Congressional Budget Office estimates released yesterday.

UNSW international relations professor William Clapton said the shutdown was "more of a pause".

"What normally happens is that there's a core set of services that don't stop, and that's things like defence, law enforcement, social security, Medicare. Those have generally continued through all the previous shutdowns," he said.

Shutdowns usually arise over disagreements about the federal budget, but can also be used as a negotiation tool and political tactic.

"The American people get caught up in the middle, because they lose access to services that the government normally would provide," Clapton said.

READ MORE: Which Aussie states and territories have a public holiday coming up?

When was the last US government shutdown?

The last shutdown was sparked by US President Donald Trump's multibillion-dollar request to build a wall on the US-Mexico border during his first term.

It lasted a historic 34 days from December 2018 to January 2019, with about 800,000 of the 2.1 million federal workers furloughed.

"That's obviously a massive impact for those people, their ability to pay their bills, to live their lives," Clapton said.

Former president Bill Clinton held the previous record of the longest shutdown in US history, 21 days in 1996.

There were two other shutdowns during Trump's first term, one lasting three days and the other lasting just several hours.

There have been 21 US government shutdowns in the past 50 years.

"There's kind of an inherent instability at times with regards to government funding in the US," Clapton said.

"It's not the first shutdown, and the fact that it kind of keeps happening sort of speaks to, yeah, the complexities and the pitfalls, if you will, of America's peculiar and unique system of government."

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Why is the US government heading towards another shutdown?

Democrats are fighting the Republicans on healthcare benefits and are making good on their threat to shut down the government if their opponents do not extend tax credits to subsidise health insurance.

Those credits are set to expire by the end of the year.

Both sides have been at an impasse in the days leading up to the start of the new fiscal year on October 1 — the date when the Senate was set to pass a new appropriations bill.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said Republicans are trying to "bully" Democrats by refusing to negotiate the extension and other priorities.

Trump and his fellow Republicans said they would not make any changes, arguing that their bill is a stripped-down and "clean" legislation that should be non-controversial.

Senate Republican Majority Leader John Thune said Republicans "are not going to be held hostage" by the Democrats' demands.

This morning, the Republicans introduced a bill that would keep funding the government for seven weeks while legislators finish working on the appropriations bill, but it was voted down by the Democrats.

The Republicans hold the power in the Senate, but needed 60 votes to pass the bill to avoid a filibuster, meaning some Democrats would have had to support it. 

"It seems that the Democrats have used that as leverage to kind of try and get the Republicans to meet their demands with regards to health care funding in particular," Clapton said.

It set the path for the shutdown. 

Federal agencies are making their preparations ahead of the start of the business day.

READ MORE: Photo of Trump team member's phone reveals major concerns

When does the shutdown start?

The shutdown started at 12.01am today (2.01pm AEST).

It's hard to say how long the shutdown will last or what the effects will be, and it will largely rely on how quickly Democrats and Republicans can come to an agreement.

"I think the really interesting question now will be how the negotiations between the Democrats and the Republicans play out, and the ways in which the key players kind of use this for political advantage," Clapton said. 

Previous shutdowns lasted an average of eight days. 

What makes this shutdown different from the others?

Trump has signalled that he may use a shutdown to cut the number of federal workers, ordering federal agencies to draft plans for sweeping layoffs if both sides cannot reach an agreement.

He said it could include "cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like".

Clapton said he believes the administration has some leeway with funding decisions that may allow Trump to fire workers across several departments.

"That is within the authority of the president," he said.

Trump's threat comes at the same time as more than 100,000 federal workers are set to resign from their roles after accepting Trump's deferred resignation program as part of his effort to reduce the federal workforce.

It is shaping up to be one of the largest mass resignations in US history. 

https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/1973207951692407085

Will a shutdown affect travel to the US?

No, immigration and airport security are deemed essential services and will continue to run throughout the shutdown.

It should not affect any Australians travelling to the US, but could impact the quality of the visit, as many federal services like national parks and museums likely be closed.

"It's not necessarily the best time to be going to the US," Clapton said.

"People aren't going to be able to access some of those landmarks of the American government that you normally would if the government was functioning as it usually does."

— With Associated Press 

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