US President Donald Trump’s bid to win the Nobel Peace Prize has drawn added attention to the annual guessing game over who its next laureate will be.
Longtime Nobel watchers say Trump’s prospects remain remote despite a flurry of high-profile nominations and some notable foreign policy interventions for which he has taken personal credit.
Experts say the Norwegian Nobel Committee typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.
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Trump's own record might even work against him, they said, citing his apparent disdain for multilateral institutions and his disregard for global climate change concerns.
Still, the US leader has repeatedly sought the Nobel spotlight since his first term, most recently telling United Nations delegates late last month “everyone says that I should get the Nobel Peace Prize.”
A person cannot nominate themselves.
Public lobbying campaigns but a private committee decision
Trump’s boasts and previous high-profile nominations make him the blockbuster name on the list of bookmakers’ favorites.
But it's unclear whether his name comes up in conversation when the five-member Nobel committee, appointed by Norway’s parliament, meets behind closed doors.
Trump has been nominated several times by people within the US as well as politicians abroad since 2018.
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His name also was put forth in December by US Representative Claudia Tenney, her office said in a statement, for his brokering of the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states in 2020.
Nominations made this year from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Pakistan's government occurred after the February 1 deadline for the 2025 award.
Trump has said repeatedly that he “deserves” the prize and claims to have “ended seven wars.” On Tuesday, he teased the possibility of ending an eighth war if Israel and Hamas agree to his peace plan aimed at concluding the nearly two-year war in Gaza.
“Nobody’s ever done that," he told a gathering of military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia.
“Will you get the Nobel Prize? Absolutely not. They’ll give it to some guy that didn’t do a damn thing.”
Sustained peace efforts prioritised over quick wins
Nobel veterans say the committee prioritises sustained, multilateral efforts over quick diplomatic wins.
Theo Zenou, a historian and research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, said Trump's efforts have not yet been proven to be long-lasting.
"There’s a huge difference between getting fighting to stop in the short-term and resolving the root causes of the conflict,” Zenou said.
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Zenou also highlighted Trump’s dismissive stance on climate change as out-of-step with what many, including the Nobel committee, see as the planet’s greatest long-term peace challenge.
“I don’t think they would award the most prestigious prize in the world to someone who does not believe in climate change,” Zenou said.
“When you look at previous winners who have been bridge-builders, embodied international cooperation and reconciliation: These are not words we associate with Donald Trump.”
Avoiding political pressure
The Nobel committee was met with fierce criticism in 2009 for giving then-US President Barack Obama the prize barely nine months into his first term.
Many argued Obama had not been in office long enough to have an impact worthy of the Nobel.
And Trump’s own outspokenness about possibly winning the award might work against him: The committee won’t want to be seen as caving in to political pressure, said Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
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Trump’s prospects for the prize this year are “a long shot,” she said.
“His rhetoric does not point in a peaceful perspective.”
The Nobel announcements begin Monday with the medicine prize.
They continue with the physics prize on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday.
The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced Friday and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences on October 13.
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