Former Triple J radio host Alex Dyson has discovered big cracks in the foundation of the once-safe Liberal seat of Wannon in south-west Victoria.
The independent candidate has twice challenged incumbent Dan Tehan for the electorate. He had whittled the margin in Wannon down to a thin 3.5 per cent ahead of this federal election, and it could be even closer on Saturday night.
A recent YouGov poll projected that Dyson, 36, could finally overtake Tehan by just over one per cent.
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Speaking to 9news.com.au, Dyson is quietly confident, and is full of respect for the battlers who live in the region where he grew up.
"Just being from country Victoria gives me an affinity for fairness, which country people haven't felt in a long time," Dyson said.
"Whether it's people who live in town or farmers who have been overlooked, I just want to be an advocate for all of them."
Just 500 votes could be the difference this year in an electorate where Dyson said people have felt "neglected".
If elected, the former radio host has vowed to take decisive action to tackle the housing crisis.
But his own investment property profile came under the microscope last week after he confirmed he owns five homes and a small business.
In response, Dyson said he's not a landlord who has "pulled up the ladder" behind him and is happy to be "open and transparent".
"I think it's really important that people are open with it, I've talked about my journey as a young man confronting the Sydney property market and thinking, 'that's not something I can achieve'," he said.
"Instead, I [purchased] in my hometown in Warrnambool and prioritised smaller, more affordable rental properties.
"There is a tendency for people to pull the ladder up behind them, but everything I do usually comes from a place of fairness and empathy."
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Climate policy remains a key issue among voters in regional areas.
Backed by Climate 200, which bankrolled the wave of successful teal independents in 2022, Dyson criticised both major parties for using climate change as a political football and said he'll treat it with a sense of urgency if elected.
"It does take a back seat sometimes, but I reckon it's something we can certainly address whilst using it as that opportunity to address cost of living issues as well," he said.
Liberal MP Tehan, an opposition frontbencher who is the shadow minister for immigration and citizenship, has held Wannon since 2010.
His campaign has focused on boosting small business ownership in his electorate by "cutting red tape" and has promised a $350,000 upgrade to Warrnambool's Premier Speedway.
Dyson said he's enjoyed a friendly political rivalry with Tehan but took aim at his voting history.
"It has been disappointing to see that his voting record shows he almost always votes against help for rural and regional Australia," Dyson said.
"I don't think that's because he doesn't want to, I just think that's because it's not his party's priority, unfortunately.
"And he is, like all major politicians, tied to the party and needs to vote in their direction."
In a statement to 9news.com.au, Tehan took issue with the claim he votes against rural interests, saying the Coalition has addressed issues impacting the regions, including in Wannon.
"I am proud to stand on my record of support for regional Australia and our plan to support regional Australia in the future," Tehan said.
"The Coalition government I was part of invested more than $120 billion to develop Australia's regions and Wannon has received more than $3 billion in discretionary grant funding since 2016."
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Dyson is a minor celebrity in his hometown after presenting Triple J's breakfast show between 2010 and 2016.
He turned his attention to politics when he first challenged Tehan's seat in 2019.
Dyson acknowledged having a public profile has been advantageous but, as history proves, not a sure-fire way to win.
The consecutive losses have cemented a firm sense of resilience.
"[The] frustration actually increases my determination that this change that I've been pushing for over three elections now really needs to happen," Dyson said.
And the possibility of a third defeat?
"I couldn't have worked harder this campaign," he said.
"We've knocked on over 20,000 doors, had conversations with our neighbours about the things they'd like to see changed.
"I'm looking forward to election day reflecting that hard work."
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