Residents in Perth and Western Australia's south-west are being urged to keep a close eye on the horizon with ex-tropical Cyclone Narelle likely to redevelop on the open ocean tonight.
After drenching the Northern Territory and the Kimberley, the system is forecast to re-intensify into a powerful cyclone and could potentially track as far south as the state capital by the weekend.
As of this afternoon, Narelle is a tropical low, positioned 25 kilometres west northwest of Kuri Bay and 360 kilometres northeast of Broome, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
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The system has already left a trail of destruction across the Northern Territory, where it made landfall as a category 3 cyclone on Saturday night.
According to Weatherzone, the deluge has been relentless.
A rain gauge at Adelaide River Town recorded 202 millimetres in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday, triggering major flooding.
Weatherzone anticipated Narelle would redevelop into a tropical cyclone "before possibly turning south and heading towards Perth this weekend".
The Bureau now expects that to happen offshore tonight.
The system is heading west southwest and moving offshore of the west Kimberley coast.
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A Severe Weather Warning is current in the north Kimberley for damaging winds and possible heavy rainfall.
Bureau meteorologist Ilana Cherny said the cyclone will move roughly parallel to the Pilbara coast tomorrow.
"Once we head later into Thursday and Friday, we're expecting it to intensify further into a category 4 severe tropical cyclone before curving around the Exmouth coast and making more of a south-westwards trajectory," Cherny said.
By the end of the week, Weatherzone said there was a chance it could even reach category 5, the highest tier on the scale.
Will it hit Perth?
Computer models show a significant "curve" in the path of the cyclone starting on Friday.
"Once we head into Friday and the weekend, there is a bit of a range of possible scenarios of where this system will track," Cherny said.
"It may cross the coast closer to the northern parts of the west coast of Western Australia, or it may linger offshore for a little bit longer and cross the coast further south between Geraldton and Perth during the weekend."
Regardless of its path, the southern half of Western Australia can expect heavy rainfall, damaging wind gusts and coastal hazards such as large waves and coastal erosion.
If Narelle tracks southwards, it is expected to accelerate and may transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.
While technically different in their energy sources, both systems are equally dangerous, capable of bringing powerful winds, heavy rain, and large waves to the Perth metropolitan area by Sunday.
A cyclone reaching Perth is an unusual occurrence, but it is not without precedent.
Bureau records show that 14 systems classified as tropical cyclones have brought gale-force winds or property damage to Perth between 1910 and 2024.
The most recent comparison for many locals is Tropical Cyclone Seroja, which devastated Kalbarri in 2021.
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