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Harris makes history for 85 minutes

President Joe Biden on Friday temporarily transferred power to Vice President Kamala Harris while he was under anaesthesia for a routine colonoscopy for one hour and 25 minutes, according to the White House.

The nation's first female, first Black and first South Asian vice president broke yet another barrier when she temporarily stepped into the acting role.

Harris worked from her office in the West Wing while Biden was under anaesthesia, according to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki.

Kamala Harris in Washington, DC on November 16, 2021.https://twitter.com/PressSec/status/1461742012693196805?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"@POTUS spoke with @VP and @WHCOS at approximately 11:35am this morning. @POTUS was in good spirits and at that time resumed his duties. He will remain at Walter Reed as he completes the rest of his routine physical," Psaki tweeted.

Biden, who turns 79 on Saturday, arrived Friday morning at Walter Reed Medical Centre to undergo his first routine annual physical since taking office.

It's routine for a vice president to assume presidential powers while the president undergoes a medical procedure that requires anaesthesia. Then-Vice President Dick Cheney did so on multiple occasions when then-President George W. Bush underwent routine colonoscopies.

To officially transfer the presidential powers to Harris, Biden sent a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the president pro tempore of the Senate, at 10:10am ET (2.10am Saturday AEDT) before going under anaesthesia.

Kamala Harris

The letter reads: "Today I will undergo a routine medical procedure requiring sedation. In view of present circumstances, I have determined to transfer temporarily the powers and duties of the office of President of the United States to the Vice President during the brief period of the procedure and recovery."

Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution says the President can send a letter to the speaker of the House of Representatives and the president pro tempore of the Senate declaring declaring they are "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and until he transmits to them a written declaration to the contrary, such powers and duties shall be discharged by the Vice President as Acting President."

In order to transfer the powers back to Biden, a separate letter was sent after the procedure.

"In accordance with the provisions of section 3 of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution, I hereby transmit to you my written declaration that I am able to discharge the powers and duties of the Office of the President of the United States and that I am resuming those powers and duties," the letter, which was sent to both Pelosi and Leahy, reads.

US President Joe Biden

Earlier this year, former President Donald Trump's ex-press secretary Stephanie Grisham heavily implied that Biden's predecessor underwent a colonoscopy in a secret visit to Walter Reed in 2019, but kept it quiet to avoid transferring presidential power to then-Vice President Mike Pence.

In her book, "I'll Take Your Questions Now," Grisham does not use the term colonoscopy but heavily implies that's what the trip was for. She says Trump's hospital visit, which stirred weeks-long speculation about his health was a "very common procedure," during which "a patient is put under." She also writes that Bush had a similar procedure while in office.

Grisham writes Trump did not want then-Vice President Mike Pence to be in power while he was sedated, which was part of the reason he kept his visit private. He also "did not want to be the butt of a joke" on late-night television, writes Grisham.

Biden is the oldest first-term president in US history, and the last comprehensive update on Biden's medical history came nearly two years ago when his presidential campaign released a three-page summary of his medical history in December 2019.

Dr. Kevin O'Connor, Biden's primary care doctor since 2009, described Biden as "a healthy, vigorous, 77-year-old male," at the time.

Tom Barrack and Donald Trump have been friends for decades and Mr Barrack was a significant fundraiser for Mr Trump's presidential campaign.

The 2019 summary showed Biden was being treated for non-valvular atrial fibrillation, or AFib — an irregular heartbeat that O'Connor said Biden experiences no symptoms of. He was taking Crestor to lower cholesterol and triglyceride levels, as well as Eliquis to prevent blood clots, Nexium for acid reflux, and Allegra and a nasal spray for seasonal allergies.

The most significant medical event in Biden's history, O'Connor wrote, was when Biden suffered a brain aneurysm in 1988. He was serving in the Senate at the time. During surgery, doctors found a second aneurysm that had not bled, which they also treated.

While in the hospital after that surgery, Biden suffered deep vein thrombosis and a pulmonary embolism. Doctors at the time inserted an "inferior vena cava filter," which would prevent future blood clots from reaching the heart and lungs and treated him with an oral anti-coagulant for several months.

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Unity and Mansion draw first blood in #7 Domino League’s semi-finals

BASSETERRE, ST. KITTS, November 19, 2021 (MMS-SKN) — Championship race for the 26th edition of Constituency Number Seven Dr the Hon Timothy Harris Domino League begun in earnest on Thursday evening November 18 with the first set of best-of-three semi-final encounters held at the new Lodge-Ottley’s Community Centre.

Top seed, and former champion team, Unity Domino Club faced fourth seed Sylvers Domino Club, a team that is in the final four for the very first time, while defending champion team and second seed Tabernacle Domino Club faced third seed Mansion Domino Club.

The first game saw Sylvers, captained by Octavia Huggins-Sewell, start on a high note scoring the first game, and were leading 3-1, 4-2 and 8-5 when the Unity pair of Bernard Wilson and Everton Boon on Table Two pulled one back to reduce the deficit to 8-6.

Playing on Table One for Unity, Simeon ‘Cuban’ Liburd and Antonio ‘Mash’ Phillip made it to 100 points before Sylvers could earn a single point to give them a bonus game. Table one did the same, and with two quick bonus games coming through on Table One, it gave Unity the undisputed overall 14-8 win.

Though on losing side, Ken Barrette of Sylvers Domino Club seen in action. Looking on is Unity’s Captain Desmond ‘Fergie’ Rawlins.

 

The second game between defending champion team Tabernacle Domino Club and Mansion Domino Club was a very tight one, where Mansion won the first game before Tabernacle won the next four straight games.

However, the game ended up being a see-saw one with Mansion having the slight edge as they were leading 12-10 when the pair of Ryan St. Marie and Lorna Francis for Tabernacle raced to 100 points before the Mansion players could get a point and with the ensuing bonus game, scores levelled at 12-12.

It was, however, not Tabernacle’s lucky evening as their opponents came back to win the decisive final game, a feat which gave Mansion Domino Club the 13-12 win.

Second in the best-of-three games will be played on Tuesday November 23 at the same venue, and if Unity and Mansion win, they will proceed on to the finals of the 26th edition of Constituency Number Seven Dr the Hon Timothy Harris Domino League. But should either Tabernacle and/or Sylvers win, it will call for the tie-breaker third game that will be played on Thursday November 25 for the finalists to be known.

Constituency Number Seven Dr the Hon Timothy Harris Domino League, which is the longest running such league in the Federation of St. Kitts and Nevis, is sponsored by Prime Minister and Area Parliamentary Representative for St. Christopher Seven (Bellevue to Ottley’s), Dr the Hon Timothy Harris.

According to results returned in the Best of the Rest competition on Wednesday evening November 17, Phillips Domino which had the best results received a bye. Order of play on Monday November 22 when Best of the Rest competition continues will therefore have Saddlers Domino Club coming up against Guinness Domino Club, while Small Corner Bar Domino Club will face Unstoppable Domino Club.

All games will be held at the new Lodge-Ottley’s Community Centre starting from 7:00 p.m.

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WORLD VIEW: Rittenhouse Jury Still Out, Florida’s Racist Prison Guards, Arbery Trial, Africa Dodges Covid Bullet, More

Nov 19, 2021

Alternate text

The Associated Press

The Rundown

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KENOSHA, Wis. (AP) — The jury at Kyle Rittenhouse’s murder trial was to return Friday for a fourth day of deliberations, after a quiet day behind closed doors that ended with one juror asking if she could take home the jury instructions….Read More

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In June, three Florida prison guards who boasted of being white supremacists beat, pepper sprayed and used a stun gun on an inmate who screamed “I can’t breathe!” at a prison near the Alabama border, according to a fellow inmate who repo…Read More

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BRUNSWICK, Ga. (AP) — Defense attorneys rested their case in the Ahmaud Arbery trial Thursday after calling just seven witnesses, including the shooter, who testified that Arbery did not threaten him in any way before he pointed his shot…Read More

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NEW DELHI (AP) — In a surprise announcement, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said Friday his government will withdraw the controversial agriculture laws that prompted yearlong protests from tens of thousands of farmers and posed a s…Read More

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HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — At a busy market in a poor township outside Harare this week, Nyasha Ndou kept his mask in his pocket, as hundreds of other people, mostly unmasked, jostled to buy and sell fruit and vegetables displayed on wooden…Read More

OTHER TOP STORIES

WASHINGTON (AP) — Polls show that a strong majority of Democrats — and a majority of the American public — support the broad priorities of the $1.85 trillion social and envir…Read More

BETHLEHEM, West Bank (AP) — Ahead of Christmas, a towering wooden screen — once blackened with soot from millions of worshippers’ candles — is being restored to its gilded gl…Read More

GUADALAJARA, Spain (AP) — Carnations in hand, 94-year-old Julio López del Campo has come decade after decade to mark the spot where he believes the body of his brother, Maria…Read More

The Screen Actors Guild has selected Dame Helen Mirren as their 57th Life Achievement Award Recipient, the union said Thursday. The 76-year-old English stage and screen actor…Read More

The post WORLD VIEW: Rittenhouse Jury Still Out, Florida’s Racist Prison Guards, Arbery Trial, Africa Dodges Covid Bullet, More appeared first on The St Kitts Nevis Observer.

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Jamaica to Claw Back Pre-Pandemic Tourism Market by 2024

Edmund Bartlett

As Jamaica’s tourism continues its strong rebound, Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett, says the sector is projected to surpass pre-pandemic figures by the end of 2024.

He said that total visitor arrivals are estimated to reach 4.5 million, with gross foreign exchange earnings of US$4.7 billion.

Bartlett noted that total visitor arrivals are estimated at 3.2 million by the end of 2022, with cruise passengers accounting for 1.1 million and stopover arrivals, 2.1 million, while earnings are projected at US$3.3 billion.

He said that Jamaica’s visitor numbers are expected to total 4.1 million by the end of 2023, with cruise passengers accounting for 1.6 million, stopover arrivals, 2.5 million, and earnings of US$4.2 billion.

Meanwhile, stopover arrivals year to date stand at 1.2 million, and since cruise shipping resumed in August, Jamaica’s tourism sector has welcomed more than 36,000 cruise passengers, while earnings are at the US$1.5-billion mark.

“Jamaica is well on its ways to recovery. The 2021 stopover arrivals are estimated to be up 41 per cent year-over-year, and year to date, we have recouped nearly half of the 2019’s stopover business,” Bartlett told the House of Representatives as he outlined the recovery of the sector.

He noted that December is usually a strong month for the industry “and it begins the high season when the rates are higher, so we will likely meet our forecast of 1.6 million visitors and over US$2 billion in earnings”.

CMC

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COVID: France to Send Police Reinforcements to Guadeloupe After Violent Protests

PARIS, Nov 19 (Reuters) – France will send over a further 200 police to its overseas territory of Guadeloupe, said government ministers on Friday, after violent demonstrations broke out on the island this week due to protests over COVID-19 protocols.

French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin and Overseas Minister Sebastien Lecornu added in their joint statement on Friday that they “strongly condemned the violence that has taken place in the last few hours in Guadeloupe.

“Social media users have posted pictures of cars set on fire, and roads being blocked off by protesters.”

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Mexican Gang Violence: 10 Killed, Bodies Hung from Bridge

MEXICO CITY, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The bodies of 10 people were found in the central Mexican state of Zacatecas on Thursday, nine of them hanging from a bridge, in apparent gang-related killings, according to local officials.

The tenth body was found on a nearby highway, according to an official from the state ministry of public security who declined to be named. The corpses were found in the area of Cuauhtemoc municipality, the state government said in a statement.

The killings were likely linked to a dispute between criminal gangs that operate in the area, the official said. An “intense investigation” was ongoing, the local government said.

Gang-related violence in some parts of Mexico has intensified recently, including in the popular tourist zones of Quintana Roo state.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Wednesday that National Guard troops will permanently deploy to Cancun and the surrounding area following an uptick in violent incidents, including the deaths of two tourists in the resort of Tulum who were caught in gang crossfire.

As of September, 21,495 people had died from gang-related violence this year, an average of almost 2,400 per month, according to the government.

Reporting by Raul Cortes, writing by Cassandra Garrison; Editing by David Gregorio

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Seeking Strength in Numbers, U.S.-Bound Migrants in Mexico Form New Caravan

TAPACHULA, Mexico, Nov 18 (Reuters) – A new caravan of about 3,000 migrants mostly from Haiti and Central America set off on foot from southern Mexico on Thursday, chanting “freedom!” as they headed north towards the U.S.-Mexico border.

Many of the migrants embarking from the city of Tapachula near Guatemala said they hope to catch up with another caravan of U.S.-bound migrants in the neighboring state of Veracruz.

The new caravan departed on its more that 1,600-km (1,000-mile) trek as leaders of the United States, Mexico and Canada met on Thursday for their first summit in five years, slated to discuss immigration among other key issues.

The United States hit record migration levels at its border with Mexico this year, piling on pressure on U.S. President Joe Biden to curb the flow of people.

A caravan that began with some 3,000 people in Tapachula almost a month ago had whittled down to about 700 people on Thursday by the time it reached the municipality of Jesus Carranza in Veracruz, still hundreds of kilometers (miles) from the U.S.-Mexico border.

Although Mexican officials have attempted to bar migrants from taking rides on passing trucks, some have still managed to catch rides on stretches of highway between government checkpoints.

Caravan organizer Irineo Mujica said he hoped the new caravan would join the Veracruz group in the coming days in the cities of Acayucan or Coatzacoalcos.

The Tapachula contingent filled the width of a three-lane highway as families trekked ahead, including small children. Caravan organizers said that the new group included people from at least 12 countries, including India, Peru and Venezuela.

They had reached the city of Huehuetan, 18 km (11 miles) away, by afternoon, and planned to stay there the night before heading to nearby city of Huixtla before dawn on Friday.

Like many Central Americans fleeing gang violence, Ana Gomez, 32, says she left El Salvador with her three children, her sister and her niece, hoping to reach the United States or perhaps stay in Mexico.

“I had to flee my country,” Gomez said. “A month ago, they came to our house and said if I don’t hand over my daughter, they’ll kill her.”

Haitian migrant Adrian, 26, who declined to give his surname, said he was almost out of money and hoped to land work in Mexico City.

“I left to look for a better life,” he said.

Reporting by Jose Torres in Tapachula and Yahir Ceballos in Jesus Carranza; additional reporting by Lizbeth Diaz, Writing by Stefanie Eschenbacher, Cassandra Garrison and Daina Beth Solomon; Editing by Daniel Flynn, Angus MacSwan and Sandra Maler

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3 Amigos Meet: Biden Seeks Common Ground with Mexico, Canada at Summit

By and ,

WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden hosted Canadian and Mexican leaders on Thursday for the first North American summit in five years in a bid to revitalize cooperation that has been over-shadowed by tension over Biden’s “Buy American” agenda and immigration.

Biden met separately at the White House with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and then all three met together.

The talks were aimed at finding common ground among the three neighbors bound together by the United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, which governs some $1.5 trillion a year in North American trade.

But disputes over the auto industry, Biden’s “Buy American” policies and a Mexican electricity bill weighed on the summit. The United States and Canada appeared at an impasse over a U.S. proposal for tax credits on U.S.-made electric vehicles, which Ottawa says violates trade agreements. read more

While no major breakthroughs were announced, Biden had hoped to make headway on the thorniest challenges with America’s two neighbors, including easing immigration pressures, reducing trade friction, recovering from the global pandemic and competing better with an increasingly assertive China.

“Our North American vision for the future draws on our shared strengths,” Biden said, sitting at a long table that allowed the leaders to maintain distance in keeping with COVID-19 protocols.

“We have to end the pandemic and take decisive action to curb the climate crisis. We have to drive an inclusive economic recovery,” Biden said. “We have to manage the challenge of unprecedented migration in our hemisphere.”

Following the summit, the White House announced agreements to develop a North American strategy to reduce methane and a pledge for all three countries to donate COVID-19 vaccines to Latin America and the Caribbean.

The summit is a result of a push by Biden to revive the so-called Three Amigos, a working group ditched by his predecessor, Donald Trump. read more The leaders will reconvene in Mexico next year, the White House said.

Resetting ties with Mexico and Canada is part of Biden’s effort to turn the page on the Trump era, shifting away from his predecessor’s strident go-it-alone approach.

Trump had especially fraught dealings with Trudeau, imposing tariffs on some Canadian goods and sometimes hurling insults at the Canadian premier. The leftist Lopez Obrador forged a working relationship with Trump despite the Republican president’s economic threats and insulting references to Mexican migrants.

Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Lopez Obrador explained during the talks why he was pursuing legislation that would give priority to Mexico’s state-owned power utility over private firms, but added it was not a central issue.

Nearly 10 months after taking office, Biden could use a diplomatic win. He faces sagging approval ratings and is trying to tamp down inflation and supply chain issues while grappling with record numbers of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Biden is under domestic pressure to contain that immigration, which Republican opponents have derided as an “open border” policy, and he needs Mexico’s cooperation.

U.S. President Joe Biden, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador meet for the North American Leaders' Summit (NALS) at the White House in Washington, U.S. November 18, 2021. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
U.S. President Joe Biden, Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador meet for the North American Leaders' Summit (NALS) at the White House in Washington, U.S. November 18, 2021. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

U.S. President Joe Biden, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador meet for the North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS) at the White House in Washington, U.S. November 18, 2021. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

In brief remarks to reporters during bilateral talks, Biden – holding his first in-person meeting with Lopez Obrador since taking office – said migration was among the main issues they were tackling but did not elaborate.

Sitting alongside Biden, Lopez Obrador thanked him for proposals that could improve the lot of many immigrants to the United States. The fate of any Biden immigration initiative remained uncertain in the U.S. Congress.

Ebrard said the United States had agreed to invest in Central America and southern Mexico to help curb migration.

FORCED LABOR

The leaders also committed to banning imports of goods made with forced labor, a policy Biden’s administration has aimed at China. Activists and Western politicians accuse China of using forced labor in its western Xinjiang region, an allegation Beijing denies.

Sounding an alarm about China, Lopez Obrador said during the three-way meeting that greater North American economic integration, including “stopping the rejection of migrants” needed for the U.S. and Canadian labor forces, would be the best way to face “the productive and commercial expansion of China.”

Lopez Obrador’s suggestion echoed Mexican Economy Minister Tatiana Clouthier’s call for the United States to “buy North American” instead of adopting protectionist measures.

The Mexican president warned North America could be headed for an “unacceptable imbalance” of economic power with China that “would keep alive the temptation of trying to resolve this disparity by use of force.”

The Biden administration has taken a tough rhetorical line with Beijing on a range of issues, though a virtual summit between Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week sought to lower the temperature.

Canada has also had rocky relations with China.

Both Canada and Mexico are worried about Biden’s “Buy American” provisions and a proposed electric-vehicle tax credit that would favor unionized, U.S.-based manufacturers.

The credit is included in the sweeping $1.75 trillion “Build Back Better” legislation that was also being voted on by the U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday. read more

Canada says the tax credit would violate USMCA rules. The White House insisted on Thursday that it does not. read more

In remarks to reporters following the summit, Trudeau said the American side heard Canada’s concerns about the credit very clearly and Canada would continue to pursue the issue.

Additional reporting by Merdie Nzanga in Washington; Dave Graham and Cassandra Garrison in Mexico City and David Ljunggren in Ottawa; Writing by Matt Spetalnick and Alexandra Alper; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Daniel Wallis, Sandra Maler and Michael Perry
Alexandra Alper; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Daniel Wallis, Sandra Maler and Michael Perry

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Incredible moment rescued sea turtle is released into wild

A sea turtle has made its long awaited return to the ocean, after being rescued and cared for by Sea World staff.

Lucy the Hawksbill sea turtle had been spotted off Kirra reef by a local diver, who noticed her health deteriorating.

The diver notified Sea World on the Gold Coast, which made plans to retrieve and rehabilitate the injured juvenile turtle.

READ MORE: Australia's biggest maritime mystery solved

Lucy the Hawksbill sea turtle was found in a bad way.

Sea World turtle rehabilitation coordinator Siobhan Houlihan said this year had been the busiest on record for sea turtle rescues, with 91 turtles cared for so far.

"Unfortunately many of these have been due to human impact including fishing injuries and boat strikes," Ms Houlihan said.

"Quite a lot of fishing injuries, boat strikes, floating syndrome parasite linked to poor water quality."

Ms Houlihan said many factors could contribute to injuries in turtles and what was causing Lucy's ill health was unkown.

READ MORE: War of words erupts between states, PM heats up

After five weeks recovery, Lucy was carefully released back into the wild.

Lucy was anaemic and underweight when found, Ms Houlihan said, but can now enjoy full health back on the reef thanks to the specialised vet team.

"Our team treated Lucy for her illness in our vet centre before she progressed to rehabilitating in our larger pool to get her swimming and weight condition back to a healthy position ready for release," Ms Houlihan said.

After five weeks' recovery, Lucy was carefully released back into the waters off Kirra beach today.

READ MORE: Major crime figure charged in jaw-dropping drug bust

"It is always very exciting when we can rescue, rehabilitate and release any animal but it is even more exciting because Kirra Reef is home to a group of resident turtles," Ms Houlihan said.

"We can't wait for Lucy to get back out there."

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‘Zero-Covid is Not Going to Happen’: Experts Predict a Steep Rise in US Cases, Growing Conflicts Over Restrictions

Total US deaths from Covid may reach 1 million by spring as vaccination rates remain lower than 60%

Activists, many of who brought ashes of relatives who died from Covid, gather outside the US Capitol to call for action to prevent future pandemics.
Activists, many of who brought ashes of relatives who died from Covid, gather outside the US Capitol to call for action to prevent future pandemics. Photograph: Bonnie Cash/UPI/REX/Shutterstock

A steep rise in Covid-19 cases in Europe should serve as a warning that the US could also see significant increases in coronavirus cases this winter, particularly in the nation’s colder regions, scientists say.

However, there is more cause for optimism as America enters its second pandemic winter, even in the face of likely rises in cases.

Evidence shows vaccine-conferred protection against hospitalization and death remains high several months after inoculation, vaccines for children older than five can reduce Covid transmission, and new antiviral medications hold the promise of making Covid-19 a treatable disease.

“I do expect to see cases increasing – we’ve started to see this in the last week or so,” said Dr David Dowdy, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University. “I don’t think what we’re seeing in Europe means we’re in for a huge surge of serious illness and death as we [saw] here in the US,” last winter.

In the last three weeks, new cases have increased in several cold weather states across New England and the midwest. However, vaccines remain roughly 85% effective at preventing hospitalization and death.

“Even if cases go up this winter, we’re very unlikely to see the overcrowded [intensive care units] and morgues of a year ago,” said Dowdy.

Vaccine-conferred immunity against infection may allow cases to rise, he said, but far fewer people will need hospitalization. The vast majority of people who were hospitalized or died from Covid-19 this summer, more than 90% in one CDC study, were not fully vaccinated.

“People can still get Covid, there can still be breakthrough infections, but the great news is if you have been vaccinated you are very much less likely to be hospitalized or have severe infection,” said Rupali Limaye, an associate scientist at Johns Hopkins University and an expert in vaccine communication.

Nevertheless, vaccine distribution is highly uneven across the US. Just 58.6% of the nation is vaccinated, lower than vaccination rates in some European nations now struggling with an increase in Covid-19 cases, such as in Germany and France.

“I’ve been predicting a pretty bad winter wave again, and it looks like it’s starting to happen,” said Dr Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s hospital’s center for vaccine development.

“There’s just too many unvaccinated and too many partially vaccinated [people]” to stop the “aggressive” Delta variant, Hotez said.

What’s more, even if the impacts of Covid-19 are dampened this winter, there still could be a devastating loss of life. A prediction from among the most respected long-term Covid-19 forecasters in the country found an additional 100,000 people may die between November 2021 and March 2022.

“We see increasing evidence in the northern hemisphere that the expected winter surge has started to unfold,” said Dr Christopher JL Murray, lead modeler at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, as he introduced a new forecast. “Reductions in cases and new infections and hospitalizations have stopped in the US and started to turn around.”

IHME’s projection, which Murray described as “optimistic”, forecast 863,000 cumulative deaths from the pandemic by March 2022. Already, more than 765,000 people in the US have died from Covid-19.

IHME’s worst-case scenario predicts hundreds of thousands more deaths, for more than 1m pandemic deaths by March 2022.

“Many countries in western Europe are even farther ahead of us in the sense that the numbers are going up quite quickly in the places like the Netherlands and Denmark, but also in Germany now and a number of other countries,” said Murray. Nearly two-thirds of the 1.9m new infections globally are on the European continent, the World Health Organization said.

Further, there are few calls and little appetite to reinstate social restrictions. The promise of vaccines that could reduce transmission of Covid-19 prompted local governments around the country to drop social distancing and mask restrictions.

That trend has held even as an emerging body of evidence showed the vaccine’s ability to prevent infection with Covid-19 waned over time, and the focus of vaccine efficacy shifted to the steady protection conferred against hospitalization and death.

The risk of a “fifth wave” and waning immunity has now prompted a call for “booster” shots, or third vaccine doses, for everyone who received mRNA vaccines, those developed by Pfizer or Moderna.

The Food and Drug Administration has already authorized booster doses for people older than 65 or who work in high-risk settings. Everyone older than 18 who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is eligible for a second dose, as evidence shows its effectiveness against serious disease may wane over time.

Booster doses are effective at increasing antibody levels, but are not the most effective way to curb transmission of Covid-19. The best way to curb transmission, experts have said repeatedly, is to get new people vaccinated. Experts now widely believe Covid-19 will be endemic and circulate for decades to come, though the severity of infection may wane over many years.

The Covid-19 pandemic may never be “over”, as many conceived early in the pandemic, Dowdy said. “The point is – when can we get this to a point where it’s tolerable to us as a society? And I think we may be closer to that point than we imagine.

“Zero-Covid is not going to happen.”

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Conflicts mount on easing COVID-19 restrictions amid autumn case spikes

By Peter Sullivan
The Hil

An uptick in COVID-19 cases as winter approaches is setting off a debate about if a new era of living with the virus has arrived or whether heightened restrictions and caution are still needed.

Cases in the U.S. have risen to more than 80,000 per day as the weather in much of the country gets colder. There are about 1,000 people dying every day from the virus, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) figures, largely among the unvaccinated.

At the same time, the widespread availability of vaccines and booster shots has made the individual risk for many people far lower.

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The result is a sometimes-confusing picture where individuals and localities are trying to figure out what level of risk to accept.

Washington, D.C., for example, on Tuesday announced it is lifting its mask mandate.

“We are learning to live with COVID,” said LaQuandra Nesbitt, director of D.C.’s health department. She said the virus is becoming “endemic,” meaning it is fading into a fact of life in the background. “It’s really my way of trying to stress to people that we’ve moved away from this goal of getting to zero cases,” she said.

Other experts, though, worried the move was premature heading into the winter and with cases and deaths still at a high level.

“The way I view it is this is the last part of the crisis phase,” said Walid Gellad, professor of medicine at the University of Pittsburgh. He said it would make sense to wait a few more weeks to allow more children under 12 to be vaccinated and to give time for powerful new antiviral treatments from Pfizer and Merck to be authorized.

D.C.’s move, he said, could be like taking “your foot off the gas right before you’re over the finish line.”

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Many experts, though, said it is warranted to at least somewhat change thinking about the virus given the strong protection from vaccines, especially once people get their booster shots, and the fact that the virus is not going to be completely eliminated anytime soon.

“I am now approaching it as if now is a reasonable version of what the future is likely to look like,” said Bob Wachter, chair of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco.

He said if someone is unwilling to do a certain activity now because of COVID-19, one is “making a statement you’re not going to do it next year or the year after.”

“It’s no longer a short-term sprint,” he said, while noting it still could be prudent to wear masks in crowded public areas where it is unclear whether everyone is vaccinated.

Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, said it is “reasonable to start thinking about lifting mask mandates.”

But, he said, “if you can hold off on lifting these restrictions until early January I think that’s better.” That would give time to get through any holiday spike and for more children to get vaccinated.

Jha said a similar timeline could work for school mask mandates, which have been a major source of controversy.

“I would keep those masks on probably through the holiday season,” he said. “Once every school-age child has had a chance to get vaccinated I think it’s totally reasonable to lift mandates.”

Of course, many parts of the country abolished their mask mandates months ago.

Jha said that for people who are vaccinated and have gotten a booster, the risk of severe illness from COVID-19 is generally on par with the risk from the flu.

Biden administration health officials are not ready yet to give the green light to relaxing restrictions and entering a new phase of dealing with the virus.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told reporters Wednesday her agency still recommends that localities be in low levels of COVID-19 transmission for several weeks “before releasing mask requirements.”

She noted that over 85 percent of counties in the U.S. are still in “substantial” or “high” transmission, meaning the CDC recommends masking indoors in public.

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, likewise said cases and deaths are not yet low enough to accept the virus as “endemic” and a fact of life.

“We want control, and I think the confusion is at what level of control are you going to accept it in its endemicity,” he told reporters. “And as far as we’re concerned, we don’t know really what that number is, but we will know it when we get there; it certainly is far, far lower than 80,000 new infections per day and it’s far, far lower than 1,000 deaths per day, and tens of thousands of hospitalizations.”

Another consideration for even vaccinated people is that there is still a chance of getting lingering “long” COVID-19 symptoms from a breakthrough infection, though that risk is substantially less than for unvaccinated people.

Wachter said there are not fully precise figures but estimated that the chance of long COVID-19 is about half as much for vaccinated people who get breakthrough cases compared to unvaccinated people, and could be about 1 in 10 breakthrough cases.

“That’s enough of a risk that if you told me I had COVID now even though I’m fully vaccinated, I’d say at least I’m not going to die, but I’d still be pretty unhappy,” he said.

But as the overall COVID-19 situation improves, with vaccines, boosters and now new antiviral treatments coming, the proper level of precaution is becoming more of a situation where, he said, “reasonable people could disagree.”

The post ‘Zero-Covid is Not Going to Happen’: Experts Predict a Steep Rise in US Cases, Growing Conflicts Over Restrictions appeared first on The St Kitts Nevis Observer.