Donald Trump is now represented by a Democrat in his home district in Florida, after a massive swing in a by-election today.

Emily Gregory claimed an upset win in the typically conservative state house seat in Palm Beach County, which includes Trump's country club Mar-a-Lago.

Gregory will replace Mike Caruso, a Republican who had represented the area since 2018. He won his last election in the seat by 19 points.

READ MORE: $800m in trades before Trump announcement 'is treason'

Caruso resigned the seat to take up another position in local government.

Trump himself had won the district by 10 points.

The president voted in today's election by mail, a method he is pushing to ban.

He also urged his supporters to turn out to vote for Republican Jon Maples.

"TO ALL GREAT PATRIOTS IN FLORIDA STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 87: GET OUT AND VOTE FOR JON MAPLES!" Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

Maples campaigned as a Trump ally, even holding an event at Mar-a-Lago.

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Gregory ran on a platform focused on affordability, a key issue for voters.

Elsewhere in Florida, Democratic candidate Brian Nathan also narrowly edged the Republican in a conservative Senate seat.

Up until recently, Florida has been the key swing state in presidential elections.

But the state has swung hard to Trump in the past eight years.

Today's election results indicate that even in his strongest turf, Trump is not popular.

An Ipsos poll released today showed just 36 per cent of voters approved of Trump. 

READ MORE: The comments from Trump's right-hand man that should annoy every Aussie

If voters in the rest of the country swung to Democrats at the same rate as they did in Florida today, the Republicans would be absolutely trounced.

Every House of Representatives seat and a third of Senate seats will be up for election this November.

The party in the White House has a long history of losing seats in midterm elections.

Republicans hold an edge of just a handful of seats in both chambers.

READ MORE: Trump says Iran has sent an expensive 'gift' to US, but won't say what

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Exclusive: The dust is yet to settle on One Nation's surge in the South Australian election, but Pauline Hanson says she is already preparing for another orange wave to descend on Victoria.

Hanson is now eyeing seats in the November state election and but denies her success in the polls is simply about voter dissatisfaction with the major parties.

The senator claims Victorians are "screaming out" for One Nation's arrival.

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"The Liberal Party have failed in Victoria, with the change of leadership constantly all the time," Hanson told Nine.com.au in the wake of her party's victory in SA.

"The biggest thing is the escalating crime that's happening in Victoria. They haven't replaced the policing for the increased population.

"They've allowed everything to slide."

Political strategists have warned that aftershocks from the One Nation earthquake in SA could easily be felt in Victoria.

Two polls conducted earlier this month place One Nation on the Coalition's tail with 23-24 per cent of the vote.

One Nation's representation in Victoria is thin after failing to secure any seats in the 2022 state election, but the party's success in SA after clinching two lower house seats could pave the way for a similar rise.

The Liberal party's disastrous result in SA could spell doom for both Opposition Leader Jess Wilson, a first-term MP who stepped up to the plate in November following a leadership coup against Brad Battin, and embattled Premier Jacinta Allan's Labor party.

Both parties bled voters to One Nation in SA and the orange lightning bolt could strike already-shaky ground in regional and outer suburban seats.

"I keep saying all the time, Victoria is a basket case. And a lot of our new membership is coming out of Victoria," Hanson said.

"People actually want representation in Victoria from One Nation.

"They're screaming out for it. They're crying out for it."

READ MORE: 'Growing and growing': Joyce's bold prediction on One Nation's future

Before Victorians head to the polls, a byelection will be held in the seat of Farrer in south-west NSW, a seat vacated by former opposition leader Sussan Ley.

David Farley is One Nation's federal candidate for Farrer, where Hanson's party will focus sharply on the region's water issues.

"The the main thing that we're gonna home in on there is protect[ing] the farming sector," Hanson added.

"But the big one is gonna be the water issue with the Murray-Darling [Basin]. That has never been sorted out."

Hanson rebranded from Pauline Hanson's One Nation to simply One Nation last year.

Dropping Hanson's name from the ballot appears to have worked wonders for the conservative party, particularly after poaching former Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce and recruiting former SA Liberal senator Cory Bernardi.

But Hanson laughed off any suggestion that she has an image problem.

"I'm not interested in what they say," she said.

"I can tell you, I think I'm the only political party that hasn't had a challenge [of] leadership.

"So that tells you something."

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Both the LNP and Nationals have changed federal leaders in 2026. Labor has not changed leadership.

Voter disaffection from the Coalition's split has been partly credited for One Nation's surge in popularity.

Hanson denied this is the case.

"That's a decision that the public have to make. But they had the opportunity to vote for the Liberals in South Australia and clearly they didn't want to," she said.

"And the Coalition was back."

She cited the Coalition's failure to unite on net zero and the Paris Agreement as the crux of its internal problems.

Hanson also claimed the LNP and Nationals can't agree on an immigration policy.

But as a new legion of voters move away from the major parties, there are no plans yet for a major policy refresh – and certainly no softening on immigration.

"The problem in the country is because of mass migration," Hanson claimed, citing an unproven figure of 1800 migrants entering Australia each day.

This figure, loosely taken from Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) data, does not accurately reflect the number of migrants coming to the country

"That's not the Australia I grew up in," she added.

"Those policies, we're actually going to be taking to the next federal election."

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Iran is considering turning the Strait of Hormuz into the world's most expensive toll booth, charging vessels an immense sum for safe passage.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is pushing for ways to monetise its control of the narrow body of water, through which 20 per cent of the world's oil passes.

Iranian news outlet Daily Javan said charging vessels for safe passage would "compensate Iran's losses in the war".

READ MORE: Trump considering ground invasion of critical Iranian island: reports

To pay for the damage Iran has suffered in the war, the article wrote oil tankers could be taxed $US50 a barrel – a 50 per cent markup.

Such a move would send oil prices surging worldwide, including in Australia.

But ships from Israel and the US would not be allowed in through strait at all.

This would not be a major concern for the US, which produces much of its own oil. It would be a blow to Israel's refined petroleum supplies, however.

Already Iran is reportedly charging shipping companies about $2.8 million in order to let their vessels through the strait unscathed.

Iran's parliament is now considering legislation to codify taxes for safe passage into law.

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"Collecting US$2 million as transit fees from some vessels crossing the strait reflects Iran's strength," top politician Alaeddin Boroujerdi said.

President Masoud Pezeshkian's rhetoric implied many vessels were free to travel through.

"The Strait of Hormuz is open to all except those who violate our soil," he said. 

"We firmly confront delirious threats on the battlefield."

Already four vessels from India have been able to go through the strait. It is not known whether they paid Iran in order to do so.

At its narrowest, the Strait of Hormuz is just 34km wide.

READ MORE: Trump says Iran has sent expensive gift to US, but won't say what it is

Missile launch sites dot the Iranian coastline of the Strait, including underground bases.

They also have small vessels capable of laying mines stealthily.

An Iranian drone or missile strike on a cargo vessel trying to get through the strait could result in a fiery death followed by a watery grave.

Even a military escort of cargo tankers would provide limited protection from an Iranian strike.

READ MORE: $800m in trades before Trump announcement 'is treason'

Commonwealth Bank has raised its home loan rates for the second time this month, slugging mortgage holders already doing it tough.

The "Big Four" bank today announced a 0.30 per cent increase to all fixed-rate home loan products will come into effect on Friday.

Rates will reach up to 7.19 per cent for owner-occupiers and 7.04 per cent for investors. 

READ MORE: $800m in trades before Trump announcement 'is treason'

This will affect new and existing customers, including applications in progress.

A Commonwealth Bank spokesperson attributed the decision to "broader funding and market conditions". 

"As Australia's largest lender, we offer a range of home loan options designed to meet the diverse needs of our customers," the spokesperson said.

Fixed-rate lending currently represents a small share of the Commonwealth's new home loans. 

Earlier this month on March 17, Commonwealth Bank passed on the Reserve Bank's 0.25 per cent cash rate hike to variable interest rate home loans and variable rate business loans.

Those changes will also come into effect this Friday. 

"We recognise interest rate changes can put additional pressure on household budgets and influence how people plan and manage their finances," CBA group executive Angus Sullivan said at the time. 

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The Reserve Bank attributed its decision to hand down its second consecutive rate hike this month to a surprise inflation jump in January and the US-Israeli war in Iran.

Its governor, Michele Bullock, warned of a global recession.

"We don't want to have a recession, but if it's hard to get inflation down, then we're going to have to deal with that, possibly," she said.

The cash rate currently sits at 4.10 per cent, just 0.25 per cent below the 2024 peak.

The average household with a mortgage and at least one car is now about $75 worse off, based on data by Canstar and the Australian Automobile Association.

The latest Treasury modelling found inflationcould hit 5.5 per cent under a scenario where oil prices reach $US120 per barrel and the war in Iran is prolonged.

Unleaded fuel prices are heading towards $3 per litre, while diesel has reached as high as $4 per litre in parts of the country. 

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Australia's regional petrol stations are often the first to feel the brunt of petrol price spikes, but an hour out of Perth's metropolitan area, one independent retailer is bucking the trend.

The maverick petrol retailer is run by Kelvin 'Blue' Inder-Smith, and as of yesterday he's selling the city's cheapest diesel and second-cheapest unleaded petrol.

Western Australian motorists are travelling up to an hour to fill up their tanks at Chidlow Growers Mart, 46 kilometres west of the Perth CBD.

READ MORE: Diesel hits $4.25/litre on K'gari as owner lays bare reality of fuel crisis

There, unleaded U91 is currently selling for $2.30 a litre, more than 16 cents below the state average and just one cent more than Perth's cheapest outlet.

Diesel, which has been hit hardest by supply chain disruptions and price hikes since the war in Iran began, is being sold for $2.74 centres a litre – the cheapest in Perth.

The average price for diesel in Perth yesterday was $2.953 cents a litre.

Asked by 9News how he is doing it, 'Blue' said he "would rather be a good Aussie" than profit off fellow Australians doing it tough.

"Fuel is like air," he told 9News.

"You have got to use it – it shouldn't be regulated by people who just want to make a profit out of poor buggers."

Local customer Eddie Pulich said it was "great" to see.

"I'm not sure what sort of a profit margin they end up with, but any saving is better than no saving at all," he said.

LIVE UPDATES: Iranian 'news' outlet gloats over fuel shortages in Australia

READ MORE: How many days does Australia have left of fuel?

'Blue' doesn't know when he will next get a fuel delivery, and when he does, he might have no choice but to hike prices.

"It's not a nice thing to see struggling people, and I would rather help than poke them with a stick."

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The owner of a remote fuel station on Queensland's K'gari island has defended charging over $4 per litre for diesel, rejecting any suggestion she is "taking advantage" of the global oil crisis.

Orchid Beach Trading Post and Driftwood Bar, one of the few options for filling up on K'gari, is now charging $4.25 a litre for diesel – well above the national average of $2.84 a litre as reported by the Australian Institute of Petroleum.

After facing backlash on social media over the seemingly record price, co-owner Nicky took to Facebook to explain she has "done everything [she] can" to minimise surging costs at the bowser.

LIVE UPDATES: Iranian 'news' outlet gloats over fuel shortages in Australia

WORLD: Trump claims Iran has lavished the US with expensive gift

"I hear the comments about fuel, and I genuinely get it – no one likes high prices, including me," Nicky said in a message.

"But please remember, a small, independent servo in a remote location, running completely off-grid on generator power… who can't even get confirmed delivery dates or pricing beforehand – that's just the reality of getting fuel up here."

Supplying fuel to the 122-kilometre-long sand island is already a precarious exercise.

Orchid Beach Trading Post and Driftwood Bar is one of just five fuel locations on K'gari.

There, motorists can only buy unleaded or diesel.

Fuel on the island is generally more expensive than mainland Australia due to the high delivery costs, which involves the use of a barge.

Before the conflict in the Middle East disrupted the flow of crude oil to Australia, diesel could already nudge $3 per litre on K'gari.

Nicky said her business is getting "absolutely smashed" by suppliers, including new charges for delivery.

"Those costs add up fast," Nicky said.

"And just to clear a few things up… if anyone thinks we're sitting on cheap fuel bought months ago – yeah, nah," she added.

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"We don't have big storage tanks, and this place runs on close to 2,000 litres a week just to stay open.

"I am absolutely not here to take advantage of anyone – just focused doing my absolute best to keep a service running in a pretty tough environment."

She urged visitors to K'gari to fill up their cars on the mainland beforehand, particularly 4WD drivers.

The owners declined to comment when contacted by Nine.com.au.

CreditorWatch's Business Risk Index report published today found the price of diesel increased by 36 per cent in just two weeks and has now reached up to $3 a litre on the mainland.

Fears are growing that the price of diesel could surpass $4 per litre more broadly across Australia.

Around 550 petrol stations around Australia have run out of at least one type of fuel as prices skyrocket and supplies threaten to dry up.

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Resources giant Rio Tinto has secured a $2 billion taxpayer handout to keep Australia's second-largest aluminium smelter running in a bid to save 3000 jobs and secure local manufacturing.

Industry Minister Tim Ayres announced this morning that the federal and state governments will jointly fund the 10-year rescue package for the central Queensland's Boyne aluminium smelter.

In return, operator Rio Tinto will underwrite about $7.5 billion in new renewable energy and storage investment in the state, and the smelter will continue running until at least 2040.

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Its power contract was due to expire in 2029.

"With a considerable public investment, we are catalysing a fourfold private investment that will build out the renewable energy grid and keep thousands of good regional jobs in central Queensland," Ayres said.

"This is a joint, 50:50 investment with the Queensland government… (it) is a good day for Queensland jobs, (and) a good day for Australian industry."

LIVE UPDATES: Iran gloats over oil shortages in Australia

About 1000 people are employed at the Boyne plant, which according to the state and federal governments, supports a further 2000 jobs in Gladstone.

The bailout is the fifth such rescue package announced by the federal government since the start of last year for the metal processing industry, with many power-hungry plants struggling to remain viable in the face of surging electricity prices.

One of those was for the Tomago aluminium smelter – the largest in Australia, which uses about 12 per cent of NSW's energy – although the specific details of that deal are yet to be unveiled.

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The Boyne smelter uses roughly 10 per cent of Queensland's energy, but under today's deal it will transition to being powered by renewables.

"As fossil fuels become increasingly expensive, this investment… positions Boyne to be among the world's first aluminium smelters underpinned by solar and wind power," Rio Tinto aluminium and lithium chief executive Jerome Pecresse said.

"It also ensures heavy manufacturing like aluminium smelting can continue in Gladstone for the long term."

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The move is part of a wider push by the federal government to improve Australia's self-reliance in an increasingly unstable global environment.

"This is a good decision for Australian economic resilience at a time in our history when we cannot take our future for granted," Ayres said.

"We cannot be complacent, and this investment is about building our industrial capability and giving us a platform to extend that into the future."

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A series of trades worth $800 million made minutes before a Truth Social post from Donald Trump sent markets swinging is an act of treason, one of America's most prominent economists has said.

An entity or several entities traded heavily on S&P 500 and oil futures, making an immense sum of money in the process.

Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman lashed out at the mystery traders.

READ MORE: Trump compares Iran attack to Pearl Harbor in front of Japan's PM

"When officers of a company or people close to them exploit confidential information for personal financial gain, that's insider trading — which is illegal," Krugman wrote.

"But we have another word for situations in which people with access to confidential information regarding national security — such as plans to bomb or not to bomb another country — exploit that information for profit. 

"That word is 'treason'."

Krugman suggested the traders were either people who knew directly what Trump was going to say, or had been told by people in the know.

"Are decisions about war and peace in part serving the cause of market manipulation rather than the national interest?" he wrote. 

"If you dismiss this as unthinkable, you just haven't been paying attention."

READ MORE: The comments from Trump's right-hand man that should annoy every Aussie

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy demanded to know who was making the trades.

"Who was it? Trump? A family member? A White House staffer?" Murphy said.

"This is corruption. Mind blowing corruption."

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates futures trading, has not commented on the trade.

The Commission normally has five members, but currently only has one, a Trump appointee.

The White House dismissed any inference of wrongdoing.

"The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting," Kush Desai told FT.

READ MORE: Trump considering ground invasion of critical Iranian island: reports

The future market trades are not the first time eyebrows have been raised at suspicious bets before a Trump decision.

Betting app Kalshi has refused to pay out $77 million in winnings to punters who bet Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out of office by March 1.

Khamenei was killed by a US and Israeli bombing strike hours before the deadline was reached.

Meanwhile on Polymarket, 150 accounts bet more than a million dollars that the US would strike Iran the next day.

And in January, a Polymarket user made about $570,000 betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be out of office before the end of the month.

They had doubled down on their bet hours before the US seized the leader in a military strike.

READ MORE: Trump says Iran has sent an expensive 'gift' to US, but won't say what

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Donald Trump has claimed Iran has sent the United States an expensive gift but refused to say what it is.

The US president said the "present" was related to oil and gas but did not go into any further detail.

"They gave us a present, and the present arrived today," he said.

READ MORE: Trump compares Iran attack to Pearl Harbor in front of Japan's PM

"It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. And I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize."

But there seems to be no sign of Iran backing down.

Instead Iran's rhetoric against the United States is only increasing.

"The criminal American and Zionist enemies initiated a fierce war aimed at disintegrating Iran," top general Ali Abdollahi said.

"By God's grace and with the heroic presence of the great and courageous Iranian nation, along with the unparalleled bids of the brave Armed Forces over the past 25 days, the enemies, primarily the US, have been forced to defeat, while the proud Iranian nation and its honorable warriors are advancing toward ultimate victory."

Abdollahi said the US was seeking a way out following its "disgraceful" defeat.

READ MORE: The comments from Trump's right-hand man that should annoy every Aussie

Trump has been increasingly speaking of peace talks with Iran, though at the same time he is scaling up the US military presence in the Middle East.

He has also repeatedly claimed the war has been won.

The Pentagon is sending another 3000 soldiers to the region, in addition to the 2500 marines deployed earlier this week.

Earlier today Trump posted a tweet from Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offering to host the negotiations.

"Pakistan welcomes and fully supports ongoing efforts to pursue dialogue to end the WAR in Middle East, in the interest of peace and stability in region and beyond," Sharif said in a tweet.

"Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict."

READ MORE: Trump considering ground invasion of critical Iranian island: reports

Pakistan is currently battling severe fuel shortages.

It receives a higher percentage of its oil imports from the Gulf states than any other country.

But so far there is little to signify that Iran is interested in backing down from the war.

Without a negotiated peace with Iran, it will be nearly impossible to secure the Strait of Hormuz without an invasion.

Iran is roughly the size of Queensland with a population of 93 million.

An estimated one million Iranians serve in the military, either in the regular army, paramilitary or reserves.

READ MORE: Minutes before Trump's announcement, $800 million in trades made

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Aussie airline Jetstar has cut several flights in New Zealand, as rising fuel costs begin to squeeze the aviation industry.

Jetstar, owned by Qantas, announced this morning it would reduce some services as a result of the Middle East conflict and its ongoing impact on oil prices.

The airline refused to say how many flights had been impacted.

LIVE UPDATES: Jetstar slashes flights as Trump claims 'war is won'

"We have made some temporary changes to our schedule, including due to a rise in jet fuel prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East and other rising costs," a Jetstar New Zealand spokesperson said.

"All impacted passengers have been contacted directly, and most have been offered same-day travel.

"We are sorry for the inconvenience and thank our customers for their understanding."

It is understood some flights to and from Australia will be impacted, including between Auckland and Sydney and Auckland and Brisbane.

READ MORE: All households to suffer if 'central' industry buckles under soaring fuel costs

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Customers have been told they should contact the airline to discuss their options if their flights are impacted.

With the Middle East conflict already having an impact on the international aviation industry, Australia's consumer watchdog warns the prolonged conflict will now spread closer to home.

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey confirmed airlines were being closely watched to ensure they weren't selling travellers short.

"[We] will act if there is behaviour that contravenes competition and consumer laws," she said.

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