The man shot dead by police during a tense stand-off in Wellington on Tuesday was a good person who struggled with alcohol, his cousin said.The Herald can now name Sam Fakalago as the person who was fatally shot in Newlands after…
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How much extra borrowers will be paying by Christmas
Imagine having to buy a new washing machine every single month.
That's the economic reality facing hundreds of thousands of Aussie homeowners who are staring down the barrel of consecutive interest rate rises alongside the already skyrocketing cost of living.
Analysis from RateCity.com.au shows that if the RBA hikes rates every month, borrowers will be facing a national cash rate of 2.10 per cent by Christmas.
READ MORE: First of Big Four banks passes on interest rate hike
For someone with a $500,000 mortgage, that's an increase in monthly payments of around $542 – roughly the cost of a new washing machine, servicing the car, visiting the dentist or buying a new pair of glasses.
Under the same scenario – which is now forecast by the nation's two biggest banks in CBA and Westpac – a person with a $750,000 loan will be looking at an $812 monthly increase on repayments, while someone with a $1 million loan will be looking at a $1083 increase every month.
It may seem odd that interest rates are being hiked at the same time as numerous other daily expenses, but AMP's Chief Economist Shane Oliver says the RBA had no choice.
"Having a still near zero cash rate when unemployment is 3.85 per cent and inflation is 5 per cent and still rising makes no sense. So the RBA is right to be 'normalising monetary conditions'," Oliver said.
"Inflation pressures are still building with surging electricity and gas prices, petrol back above $2 a litre, rents starting to rise rapidly and supermarkets warning of more price rises and increasing wage demands.
"It's looking likely that inflation will now rise to 7 per cent or so in the second half."
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Oliver said while the data shows that households are well placed to weather multiple rate rises, it's inevitable that some will experience financial pain.
"While the household debt situation is not as perilous as some would have it – with household wealth up more than household debt and many households well ahead on their payments – many will experience a significant amount of pain from higher rates," he said.
"For example, RBA analysis indicates that about 25 per cent of variable rate borrowers would see a 30 per cent or more rise in mortgage payments from a 2 per cent rise in rates."
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The top number cruncher now expects the cash rate to peak at 2.5 per cent, punching a sizable hole in the property market in the process.
"We expect that while the RBA will raise the cash rate to 1.5 per cent to 2 per cent by year end, the peak in the cash rate will come at around 2 per cent to 2.5 per cent by mid next year. This is well below money market expectations for a rise above 4 per cent," Oliver forecasts.
"Given that the latest RBA hike was roughly in line with our expectations we have made no changes to our cash rate forecasts. We continue to see average home prices falling 10-15 per cent over the next 18 months but this may now occur earlier and faster than previously expected."
READ MORE: One in four Aussies struggling with rising cost of living
RateCity.com.au research director Sally Tindall advised borrowers worried about their financial position to take action before it becomes an issue.
"While many borrowers have been preparing themselves for rising rates, they may not have expected the RBA would go this hard and fast," she said.
"If you don't think you can keep up with hikes of this magnitude, take action now. Start making cuts to your budget and consider refinancing to a lower rate while you can.
"In a couple of months' time, some people may even find they can't refinance their mortgage because they don't pass the banks' serviceability tests on the higher rates."
The information provided on this website is general in nature only and does not constitute personal financial advice. The information has been prepared without taking into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any information on this website you should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs.
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What is stagflation, and why central banks fear the dreaded vortex
As economies around the world face rising inflation and stagnant growth, the word stagflation has begun to circulate.
The World Bank overnight released a report which warned many countries will soon find it "hard to avoid" recession, and tucked inside it was the S word.
Here we look at what this economic term means, and whether or not Australia could be vulnerable.
READ MORE: First of Big Four banks passes on interest rate hike
So, what is stagflation?
Do you know anyone who lived through the 1970s? You could ask them.
Why the 70s?
Things were quite bleak back then, inflation running in the mid-teens, a weak job market, oil shocks and shortages, low economic growth. It goes on.
Okay, but can't you just tell me?
Some economists describe stagflation as a kind of dreaded vortex, where stagnation and inflation meet. It's when the economy doesn't grow, but the costs of living do.
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But isn't that like right now?
Kind of. For some nations, stagflation is now a real risk. But in Australia, not yet.
According to the IMF, the Australian economy is expected to grow about 2.3 per cent this year, which is higher than many other advanced economies.
Dr Gonzalo Castex, a fiscal expert with UNSW, says "we haven't fully recovered from the pandemic" but the economy is in not bad shape, all things considered.
But what about our 5.1 per cent inflation?
Indeed. Castex calls that a potential "red flag" and reckons our inflation is "high".
"We know that one of the important mandates for the RBA is to keep inflation under control," Castex says, "and now inflation is getting a little bit out of control."
So what happens next, are we doomed?
The RBA has lifted the cash rate twice in two months, so action to counter the threat of stagflation is underway.
In the minds of the RBA economists, raising the cash rate will slow things down because everything becomes expensive.
But, Castex says, these are complex levers the RBA is now pulling, and the central bank can only fix so much with rate hikes.
The RBA has to fight inflation by raising the cash rate, he says, but it will come at a cost.
"It will reduce economic growth at levels that we don't yet know what will happen," he says.
What can happen as the cash rate lifts?
Higher mortgage repayments is the first thought, but it runs deeper than that.
More broadly, when there is no growth, companies retreat, producing less and dialing back on new hires.
So raising the cash rate will lower inflation, but people will also want to spend less.
This, Castex says, can cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth, or even a recession.
"There is a trade off there."
READ MORE: One in four Aussies struggling with rising cost of living
And what about that World Bank report?
It flagged some worrying trends.
They now expect the global economy to grow just 2.9 per cent this year, which is down sharply from growth of 5.7 per cent last year.
And it's also notably lower than the World Bank's forecast of 4.1 per cent, made just six months ago in January.
READ MORE: More Aussies getting second jobs to cope with the rising cost of living
Perrottet posts identical copy of much-mocked Berejiklian tweet
They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
If that's the case, Gladys Berejiklian should be very flattered indeed by the tweet just posted by her successor.
Dominic Perrottet has exactly replicated a much-mocked tweet from Berejiklian posted 364 days ago.
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https://twitter.com/GladysB/status/1402505771003179010
In the original tweet ahead of Origin Game One, Berejiklian is seen looking at a TV, wearing a NSW Blues scarf and beanie over her work attire, clutching an unopened can of Coke Zero.
"Getting ready for Game 1. Go the NSW Blues," the tweet was captioned.
The internet was relentless in mocking the tweet, which was posted four hours before kick-off.
READ MORE: Everything you need to know about Origin I
https://twitter.com/Dom_Perrottet/status/1534361680582692866
The mockery the then-premier was subjected to appeared to temper her social media presence. For the last few months of her time in office, her Twitter activity was mostly retweeting the daily COVID-19 figures.
But Perrottet was unperturbed by the mockery Berejiklian received.
Save for being substantially taller than his predecessor, the photo Perrottet posted was close to identical.
The same beanie and scarf, the same pose, the same unopened can of Coke Zero, and what appears to be the same exact spot in the premier's office.
It's likely more thought was put into posting the second photo than the original.
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US wins case to seize oligarch's $450m superyacht
The United States won a legal battle today to seize a Russian-owned superyacht in Fiji and wasted no time in taking command of the $450 million vessel and sailing it away from the South Pacific nation.
The court ruling represented a significant victory for the US as it encounters obstacles in its attempts to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs around the world.
While those efforts are welcomed by many who oppose the war in Ukraine, some actions have tested the limits of American jurisdiction abroad.
READ MORE: Sanctioned Russian oligarch's megayacht found hiding in UAE river
In Fiji, the nation's Supreme Court lifted a stay order which had prevented the US from seizing the superyacht Amadea.
Chief Justice Kamal Kumar ruled that based on the evidence, the chances of defense lawyers mounting an appeal that the top court would hear were “nil to very slim".
Kumar said he accepted arguments that keeping the superyacht berthed in Fiji at Lautoka harbor was “costing the Fijian government dearly".
“The fact that US authorities have undertaken to pay costs incurred by the Fijian government is totally irrelevant,” the judge found.
He said the Amadea "sailed into Fiji waters without any permit and most probably to evade prosecution by the United States of America".
The US removed the motorised vessel within an hour or two of the court's ruling, possibly to ensure the yacht didn't get entangled in any further legal action.
Anthony Coley, a spokesman for the US Justice Department, said on Twitter that the superyacht had set sail for the US under a new flag.
He said American authorities were grateful to police and prosecutors in Fiji “whose perseverance and dedication to the rule of law made this action possible.”
In early May, the Justice Department issued a statement saying the Amadea had been seized in Fiji, but that turned out to be premature after lawyers appealed.
It wasn’t immediately clear where the US intended to take the Amadea, which the FBI has linked to the Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov.
READ MORE: Oligarch's $200m superyacht goes dark on epic 11,000km escape
READ MORE: Oligarch superyachts 'go dark' in cat and mouse on high seas
Fiji Director of Public Prosecutions Christopher Pryde said unresolved questions of money laundering and the ownership of the Amadea need to be decided in the US.
“The decision acknowledges Fiji’s commitment to respecting international mutual assistance requests and Fiji’s international obligations," Pryde said.
In court documents, the FBI linked the Amadea to the Kerimov family through their alleged use of code names while aboard and the purchase of items such as a pizza oven and a spa bed.
The ship became a target of Task Force KleptoCapture, launched in March to seize the assets of Russian oligarchs to put pressure on Russia to end the war.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyColeyDOJ/status/1534194361566625792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
The 106-metre-long vessel, about the length of a football field, features a live lobster tank, a hand-painted piano, a swimming pool and a large helipad.
Lawyer Feizal Haniff, who represented paper owner Millemarin Investments, had argued the owner was another wealthy Russian who, unlike Kerimov, doesn’t face sanctions.
The US acknowledged that paperwork appeared to show Eduard Khudainatov was the owner but said he was also the paper owner of a second and even larger superyacht, the Scheherazade, which has been linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
READ MORE: US moves to seize planes owned by Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich
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The US questioned whether Khudainatov could really afford two superyachts worth a total of more than $1 billion.
“The fact that Khudainatov is being held out as the owner of two of the largest superyachts on record, both linked to sanctioned individuals, suggests that Khudainatov is being used as a clean, unsanctioned straw owner to conceal the true beneficial owners,” the FBI wrote in a court affidavit.
Court documents say the Amadea switched off its transponder soon after Russia invaded Ukraine and sailed from the Caribbean through the Panama Canal to Mexico, arriving with over US $100,000 in cash.
It then sailed thousands of kilometres across the Pacific Ocean to Fiji.
The Justice Department said it didn’t believe paperwork showing the Amadea was next headed to the Philippines, arguing it was really destined for Vladivostok or elsewhere in Russia.
The department said it found a text message on a crew member’s phone saying, “We’re not going to Russia” followed by a “shush” emoji.
READ MORE: Australia's inflation lower than most in OECD but worst is yet to come
READ MORE: Aussie home prices suffer biggest slowdown in 30 years
The US said Kerimov secretly bought the Cayman Island-flagged Amadea last year through various shell companies.
The FBI said a search warrant in Fiji turned up emails showing that Kerimov’s children were aboard the ship this year and that the crew used code names — G0 for Kerimov, G1 for his wife, G2 for his daughter and so on.
Kerimov made a fortune investing in Russian gold producer Polyus, with Forbes magazine putting his net worth at $20 billion.
The US first sanctioned him in 2018 after he was detained in France and accused of money laundering there, sometimes arriving with suitcases stuffed with 20 million euros.
Khudainatov is the former chairman and chief executive of Rosneft, the state-controlled Russian oil and gas company.
With Associated Press
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