The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has delivered on one of the most widely tipped Melbourne Cup Day wagers, keeping interest rates on hold while also hinting there may be no further cuts to come.
Delivering its decision half an hour before the running of the famous race – in what has become a traditional but unconnected event – the RBA board said it was prudent to keep the cash rate target at 3.6 per cent.
And while some economists still believe the central bank will pass on a further cut or two next year, RBA Governor Michele Bullock hinted that interest rates may already be as low as they get this cycle.
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"It's possible there are no more rate cuts, it's possible there are some more," she said, before adding that "it's an interesting question about whether there's many more rate cuts to come".
However, as Bullock has frequently done, she also stressed that her bank would react to inflation and unemployment data as needed.
"Anything is possible," she said.
"At the moment all I would say is that I think we're at the right spot we need to be at the moment and we can respond where the risks arise."
That decision came after inflation data last week showed the consumer price index rose 1.3 per cent in the September quarter, the largest quarterly increase since March 2023, while the trimmed mean – the RBA's preferred measure of underlying inflation – was up 1 per cent.
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In its monetary statement, the RBA board said it believes the recent surge in inflation is only temporary.
But at the same time, it significantly increased its own inflation forecasts for the coming year, now predicting the trimmed mean will hit 3.2 per cent – beyond its target range of 2-3 per cent – from the December to June quarters, before easing back to 2.7 per cent next December.
It had previously forecast core inflation would ease from 2.6 per cent next quarter to 2.5 per cent next December.
Today's decision, which was unanimous – Bullock said the possibility of a cut wasn't even discussed – was reflective of the board's "cautious" approach.
"Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier cash rate reductions," they said.
"Given this, and the recent evidence of more persistent inflation, the Board judged that it was appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook as the data evolve.
"The Board remains alert to the heightened level of uncertainty about the outlook in both directions."
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Line goes through any hope of pre-Christmas cut
With just one meeting left in the 2025 calendar year, many experts now believe that struggling borrowers won't see any movement on interest rates until at least next year.
"We've seen rising inflation and this has been accompanied by a rise in unemployment – but perhaps not a big enough rise to make a dent in inflation," Peter White, managing director of the Finance Brokers Association of Australia, said.
"This is why we expect it won't be until the new year before we see any potential for a rate reduction."
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Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said the RBA's decision offers little comfort to households already feeling the pinch.
"Many Australians were hoping for some breathing room before Christmas, but inflation has returned, and the board is waiting for clearer signs of progress before moving on rates.
"Unless something unprecedented happens, we're now looking at 2026 for the next rate adjustment.
"If inflation eases, we could see a cut early next year. Until then, homeowners will need to look to other lenders for a better deal."
The outlook was backed by Saul Eslake, from Corinna Economic Advisory, who said mortgage holders would probably have to wait until February for any respite.
"The 'materially' higher-than-expected September quarter CPI has dealt a fatal blow to hopes of a rate cut in November, and reduced – although in my honest opinion not fatally – the chances of a rate cut in February next year," Eslake said.
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One of the few dissenting voices was Micaela Fuchila, of Jarden, who said economic conditions still gave the RBA room to make a reduction.
"At this point in the cycle focus is expected to shift to the labour market. Employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate is on the rise while inflation pressures remain contained," she said.
Analysis by Finder's Consumer Sentiment Tracker showed more than one-in-three homeowners said they struggled to pay their mortgage in October.
Cooke said it pays to shop around and consider switching mortgage lenders.
"A number of lenders are also offering cashback – up to $4000 – for refinancing, which could be worthwhile for some borrowers looking for a cash injection," he said.
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